Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows an invasion of green snot into NW uk later next week with below average temperatures. certainly snot what I wanted to see at all

Edited July 13, 2017 by Frosty.

[Mokidugway]

Just now, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z shows an invasion of green snot into NW uk later next week with below average temperatures.

Wow 15 c ,can't wait  ,lol

 

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Wow 15 c ,can't wait  ,lol

 

Yeah, so much for the heatwave..I'm joking of course..The gfs is not to be trusted, but then again, neither am i.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Tuesday Plume? theme of last 3 summers, could feel hot in south for a time, thunderstorm chances

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Standard British summer set up looks to happen next week with a sinking low out west sliding south and pushing warm air north with the risk of t storms. 

As ever with this setups they vary each time and its pointless taking each run as it shows, even trying to find the trends with this type of setup is well tricky because various factors make massive differences.

Sink it too quick, and no warm spell or one day. 

Sink it just right then allow a second surface low to spin up means a few days heat and thunderstorms

Sink it perfectly with no secondary low and you have dry (maybe not) and a lengthy warm spell 

We won't know or even have a wild idea till very earliest Sunday. 

Buckle in.... 

[Frosty.]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Tuesday Plume? theme of last 3 summers, could feel hot in south for a time, thunderstorm chances

Blink and you will miss it..seriously though, very mixed signals regarding next week which would likely have a knock on effect further ahead too.

[Singularity]

UKMO offers some interest with shallower lows and little in the way of consolidation into one feature that sweeps the heat away. Looks more of a very warm but thunder-showery setup... Much as per latest Met Office guidance

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Blink and you will miss it..seriously though, very mixed signals regarding next week which would likely have a knock on effect further ahead too.

Saturday looks good at least Frosty, might make 25°

[mb018538]

I'm a bit unconvinced by the latest output...I think there's a fair chance we might not see a settled spell at all. Very complicated situation developing next week.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I'm a bit unconvinced by the latest output...I think there's a fair chance we might not see a settled spell at all. Very complicated situation developing next week.

Yes there were issues and ??? yesterday and there appears to be even more today..mixed weather is probable next week..not smooth sailing into an anticyclonic sunset I was hoping for..this is the uk after all, it's never straightforward is it!

Edited July 13, 2017 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

So by T192 on the GEFS 12Z ensembles, 8 runs have dartboard lows over the UK, 8 more runs have already shifted the low comfortably out of the way and look good for an extended settled spell, and 6 are a mishmash of these two clusters. 

What was starting to look clear 2 days ago has turned into a forecasting hell-hole. Such is the life of a UK weather forecaster... shame on me for thinking it might be straightforward!!!

[cheshire snow]

45 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Blink and you will miss it..seriously though, very mixed signals regarding next week which would likely have a knock on effect further ahead too.

"Blink and you will miss it' Love that phrase,and no doubt a phrase that will be used constantly come silly season.

C.S

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So by T192 on the GEFS 12Z ensembles, 8 runs have dartboard lows over the UK, 8 more runs have already shifted the low comfortably out of the way and look good for an extended settled spell, and 6 are a mishmash of these two clusters. 

What was starting to look clear 2 days ago has turned into a forecasting hell-hole. Such is the life of a UK weather forecaster... shame on me for thinking it might be straightforward!!!

We try our best man with beard, at least we try.

[MR EXTREMES]

18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I mean take a look at the Gem 12z, looks more like autumn! with green snot over ireland

Still pretty warm tho. 

Thundery lows look more likely than full on autumnal. 

With heights building through Scandinavia and lows out to our west with azores heights never to far away. 

Another heat wave may well be a possibility but this time possibly more thundery. 

Although I still believe that settled very warm or hot is more likely and the Atlantic not very active. 

But as always we can only wait and see. 

Its been beautiful in the south so far this summer I'm certainly not complaining. 

 

[Frosty.]

So far so good on Ecm 12z

 

Edited July 13, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Certainly the Ecm 12z becomes very warm / hot and humid further south for a time with thunderstorms following a fine warm spell early next week.

 

 

Edited July 13, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

ECM goes unsettled too.....looking that warm and settled July spell is probably off the cards after all. Shame, but that pesky low pressure is proving very troublesome.

[Frosty.]

Then just after midweek the Ecm 12z shows the warmth and humidity swept away eastwards by cooler / fresher atlantic air and low pressure to the north-west in control..then it starts to improve across the south as pressure rises..now I will shut up as it feels like I'm talking to myself.

Ends pretty nice for southern uk under ridging with warmth and sunshine.

Edited July 13, 2017 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

Northerners are probably pretty sick of me trying to give them hope, but a couple more developments might be possible 1. ECM overdoing heights above the low, if so, faster exit of the low 2. No doubt the charts will look different tomorrow

[knocker]

Well the ecm is not good news next week. The upper low that is spawned by the active vortex lobe in N. Canada is between Greenland and Iceland by 12z Tuesday with the associated trough running south as far as Iberia with the surface fronts aligned west of Ireland. Twenty four hours later a small depression that has formed on the fronts is over Scotland as the fronts themselves traverse the country resulting in some very wet conditions particularly north of the Midlands.

From there the situation deteriorates The upper low to the north west intensifies and tracks SE and by 12z Friday is just north of Scotland, as is the surface low, which brings some wet and windy weather to Scotland and showers elsewhere in England and Wales in the westerly flow.

At the end of the run another system has impacted the north with ridging from the Azores confined to the south.

This not a great run by any stretch of the imagination so it will be interesting to see what the EPS comes up with

Edited July 13, 2017 by knocker

[Guest]

33 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM goes unsettled too.....looking that warm and settled July spell is probably off the cards after all. Shame, but that pesky low pressure is proving very troublesome.

Still in the same pattern of dragging up warm and humid air from the south (and mainly for the south of the UK, too). Two shots of heat in the GEFS ensembles for London before another breakdown to unsettled conditions.

[summer blizzard]

53 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM goes unsettled too.....looking that warm and settled July spell is probably off the cards after all. Shame, but that pesky low pressure is proving very troublesome.

It's one part bad luck and one part over-optimism if you ask me. 

We did get the response in the tropics (the red near the left is a burst of westerlies near Indonesia) that led to some calling for much better fortunes.. but you can also see that like an elastic band there is a strong easterly surge (the blue) which means that our window is shorter and that the Nina like imprint that has held back this summer, may return. 

This summer reminds me all the more of 2010, perhaps the August will too. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All . Normal British summer resumes with no extremes in temperature although there was frost in Northern Britain last night which is pretty record breaking After a rather benign set-up in the next few days the heat build for southern uk  for only a short time before its washed away by the Atlantic. So perhaps again some welcome rain for southern gardens thanks to a plume of some sorts and some welcome thunderstorms  perhaps

[Man With Beard]

And a swing to less settled from the NOAA too. I must admit, I shed a tear when I saw it

  

Good news, though, the ECM mean at for 23rd July is exactly where it has been for days, which is for pretty overwhelming for settled weather. I believe the ECM mean is still the best verifying chart at D10?

Edited July 13, 2017 by Man With Beard

[Man With Beard]

And further straws to clutch for northern areas - Glasgow's ECM ensemble spread shows pressure levels being an outlier

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/ecmwf/graphe_ens3.php?mode=1&x=&y=&run=12&lat=55.991902834008094&lon=-4.150943396226413&runpara=0