Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Scorcher]

The ECM 12Z has some strangely cool uppers around for midweek next week. Would be disappointing to have uppers under 10C in such a setup!

The longevity factor is there from the ECM though. Just a shame to see all the real heat going into Central Europe.

[Kentspur]

6 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, 25c is a heatwave up north for several consecutive days, of course 25c in itself isn't hot but its very warm and combined with sunshine its warmer still and not forgetting humidity which makes 25c feel closer to high 20's celsius..anyway, it looks like next week onwards will become increasingly summery across the uk.

I'm sure I've read before on a met office post that a heatwave is 28c+ for 3 days for Scotland and the north, 30c+ for 3 days in the Midlands and 32c+ in the south east for 3+days. 25c is bog standard mid summer warmth in the south east, July and August both averaged out daily maxes of around 25c in my region last summer and mid September we recorded 34c! but I guess 25c would feel like a heatwave to those poor folk up north, looking promising for some summery conditions for all fingers crossed!

Edited July 12, 2017 by Kentspur

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I'm sure I've read before on a met office post that a heatwave is 28c+ for 3 days for Scotland and the north, 30c+ for 3 days in the Midlands and 32c+ in the south east for 3+days. 25c is bog standard mid summer warmth in the south east, July and August both averaged out daily maxes of around 25c in my region last summer and mid September we recorded 34c! but I guess 25c would feel like a heatwave to those poor folk up north, looking promising for some summery conditions for all fingers crossed!

You're right but I'm sure 25c would feel like a heatwave in scotland after all the cool unsettled dross so far this summer..anyway, hopefully it will warm up next week but there are still plenty of ????? 

Edited July 12, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

I'm happy with tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, it's better than last night's and in my opinion slightly better than the 00z..it shows summery weather becoming widespread next week and also looks good to continue beyond T+240 hours.

Edited July 12, 2017 by Frosty.

[Faronstream]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm happy with tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, it's better than last night's and in my opinion slightly better than the 00z..it shows summery weather becoming widespread next week and also looks good to continue beyond T+240 hours.

The ECM 12Z control run is worse than 00Z last night, the ensemble mean does normally not show if there are any significant changes in the coming runs so we have to hope that today's 12Z run is just a coincidence

[knocker]

The anomalies this evening are not a great deal of help as there are difference vis the orientation of the vortex lobe and associated trough over Canada and the scale of the Azores influence. Thus although the general trend to warmer and more settled conditions (leaving aside any convective activity that may sneak in) is still looking okay I suspect the detail on how precisely this will evolve in the eastern Atlantic might take a day or two.

Anyway back to tonight's anomalies, keeping in mind the differences, there is a westerly upper flow which weakens and splits mid Atlantic. The southern section of this split flow is forecast to track breakaway upper troughs from the main trough to a position south west of the UK  So will the upper low initiate WAA into the UK or NE away from it? Will the Azores ridge over the top and do a reverse N/S split or even will the Iberian low track north over the UK? Or worst case scenario the Azores could stay to far to the south west and a trough slip in from the NW.? Over to the det outputs

[davehsug]

Maybe those looking at uppers, should follow a version of the winter advice, get the cold in first and the snow will follow. Here, maybe, get the anticyclone in first & the heat will follow?

[Ice Man 85]

6 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Maybe those looking at uppers, should follow a version of the winter advice, get the cold in first and the snow will follow. Here, maybe, get the anticyclone in first & the heat will follow?

Doesn't heat need a cyclonic?

[Summerstorm]

Well the GFS 18z is pretty poor shows some WAA mid next week before a breakdown on Friday from the west in the form of a LP system which may then lead to a more changeable outlook through till late in the week after next when the Azores High starts to ridge in again towards the end of July. (I'm still a bit of an amateur when it comes to reading the charts etc. So if I'm wrong at all then cut me some slack please )

Edited July 12, 2017 by Summerstorm

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

18z: A blob of green snot appears from out of nowhere in the middle of next week and yet again the Azores is pushed back until end of July.  

[Scorcher]

7 minutes ago, 40*C said:

18z: A blob of green snot appears from out of nowhere in the middle of next week and yet again the Azores is pushed back until end of July.  

Two words for you: one run. Another two words: pub run. Don't be so dramatic about one run!

[draztik]

36 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Two words for you: one run. Another two words: pub run. Don't be so dramatic about one run!

 

GFS 18Z Control heads the same way.... but sure, its drunk too. Right? 

((attached: GFS op 18z 180hr, GFS 18z control 180hr))

As for the GEFS in general, a trend away from settled weather gaining momentum with every new update, with the azores unable to build in. 

Edited July 12, 2017 by draztik

[northwestsnow]

Looking like there may be some complications on the road to a settled spell of weather for the UK.I dont normally pay too much attention to the Gfs( mainly because its hopeless) but there seems to be a growing trend away fron a HP dominated outlook, the 00z runs will be interesting.

[northwestsnow]

Going to have to hope GFS is wrong as its not giving up on a quite frankly disgusting outlook, while we get stuffed with trough after trough mainland Europe bakes, and bakes some more.

Even UKMO is beginning to look dodgy at 144 imho.

If GFS is correct expect a pretty hasty backtrack from Exeter very soon..

Nervously awaiting ECM but getting that awful deja vu feeling at the moment.

 

Edited July 13, 2017 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

Difficult to know what to make of the last couple of gfs runs so a perusal of the GEFS and in particular the ecm is definitely required but until then I'm inclined to treat with extreme caution. On the face of it seems to be producing some amplification with not good results.

It follows the script until Monday with the breakaway upper trough splitting the HP in mid Atlantic but then it initiates the amplification with the Central European high pushing north into Scandinavia and, importantly, quite strong ridging over NE North America. This creates an upper low between Greenland and Iceland with the associated trough dominating mid Atlantic. Whilst at the same time the high pressure over the UK is moving east and the Iberian low is making a foray north.

The twin surges of the ridges continues forcing the aforementioned upper low to track south east to be just west of N. Ireland by 00 Friday and consequently surface low pressure to the west and north west is tending to dominate the UK with fronts traversing the country during Friday.

Best left here for the moment but just to mention the GEFS anomaly is not adverse to the Atlantic trough being centre stage.without being spectacularly anomalous.

Edited July 13, 2017 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I will feel sooooo sorry for scotland if this all goes pete tong.. as you say, the Gfs 00z is disgusting apart from one very warm day across the south-east but it's only 1 run.

Not just scotland mate its hideous for most, ecm coming out now..

[Frosty.]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Not just scotland mate its hideous for most, ecm coming out now..

I highlighted scotland because they haven't had any summer to speak of yet..it's been largely cool and unsettled while the south-east has baked.

[Scorcher]

The ECM is very similar so far...surely this can't be going completely pear shaped?

We've gone from a potential prolonged spell of warm settled weather with the anomalies seemingly coming on board, to now looking at maybe 1 warm day at best with the heat being swept away by Wednesday morning. 

You really couldn't make this up. The British climate at its worst.

[Singularity]

Like some malicious plot line, the 00z runs from all but UKMO (and it's perilously close) see a shortwave trough passing close to Iceland perfectly timed to interact with the little low trying to take a trip to Europe.

Very painful to watch unless you dislike heat and enjoy quick breakdowns with sporadic thundery conditions.

Those seeking fine weather for mid-next week will have to hope that the timing of one of these features adjusts away from the latest consensus.

Not that the sweep-away mid-week should really be the end of the story for a fine spell; it really should shove back pretty quickly so within a day or two. GEM 00z captures this notion.

[northwestsnow]

You just got to laugh really.Ecm follows gfs ...

[Frosty.]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

You just got to laugh really.Ecm follows gfs ...

Always a bad sign when green snot approaches the uk..not what the doctor ordered!

[Singularity]

ECM has the quick recovery too so that's something. 

Worth noting that plume timing on that run looks right for a 30+ day Wednesday and with the heat reaching well north so at least taster for most. 

Still... it seems very harsh to have to make do with that for midweek.

[Scorcher]

5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Not that the sweep-away mid-week should really be the end of the story for a fine spell; it really should shove back pretty quickly so within a day or two. GEM 00z captures this notion.

Will it though? The GFS shows the trough pretty close all the way through.

If it goes as is suggested this morning by the op runs I don't think any of us will be confident about a settled spell at all.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Singularity said:

ECM has the quick recovery too so that's something. 

Worth noting that plume timing on that run looks right for a 30+ day Wednesday and with the heat reaching well north so at least taster for most. 

Still... it seems very harsh to have to make do with that for midweek.

Gfs doesnt make a quick recovery and to be honest it seems to leading the way at the moment, it started sniffing out this trough yesterday while ecm had us under high pressure...

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You just got to laugh really.Ecm follows gfs ...

Laugh?..I feel like crying

Edited July 13, 2017 by Frosty.