Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[cheese]

Wow - loving the look of those charts. Would be thrilled if they came to fruition! 

[Mark wheeler]

Nice looking GFS rolling it for this weekend ( yes the weekend not breakdown at the weekend ) As Del Boy would say "Lovely Jubbly "

 

Edited July 10, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[Frosty.]

Good news about the temperatures by the weekend following a widespread cooler spell, temps comfortably back into the low to mid 20's celsius across southern uk by next Sat / Sun according to the Gfs 12z.

Edited July 10, 2017 by Frosty.

[richep]

Decent airshow weather again. Two consecutive nice weekends. Love it.

[Frosty.]

Into next week, the Gfs 12z shows high pressure building in and becoming centred over the uk..good to see..pleasant is a word that springs to mind.

Edited July 10, 2017 by Frosty.

[Singularity]

Watching the mean trough position Sun-Tue adjust away from being not far NE of the UK.

UKMO 12z paints an all-too familiar picture this weekend  of a weak trough grazing past the north while a weak ridge and warm airmass affects the south, resulting in a north-south split... Hopefully the last for some time as HP becomes more influential starting early next week.

Edited July 10, 2017 by Singularity

[Frosty.]

So..uk based anticyclone next week according to the Gfs 12z operational..The start of something good nationwide hopefully!

Edited July 10, 2017 by Frosty.

[sparky1972]

29 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Good news about the temperatures by the weekend following a widespread cooler spell, temps comfortably back into the low to mid 20's celsius across southern uk by next Sat / Sun according to the Gfs 12z.

yes please, a warm sunday at silverstone will do nicely

[mushymanrob]

the trend is becoming clearer, both the gfs and ecm 12z runs suggest after a warm muggy weekend, a brief cooler spell before high pressure builds in from the west. the gfs for several runs now is hinting at high pressure domination beyond next weekend. the outlooks looking dry, and although not overly hot , yet, theres always the chance of some hot air from the continent finding it way here. imho its looking average at worse, at best a lengthy hot spell must be a reality. i expect the anomaly charts will shift towards a more anticyclonic regime soon.
 

[MR EXTREMES]

10 hours ago, knocker said:

This morning's EPS is looking much more encouraging. Still retaining the Canadian lobe but with a much weaker trough and some significant positive anomalies and ridging in mid Atlantic edging east during the period. Thus more settled and warmer for most by the end of the period.

EDIT

By warmer I don't mean heat wave but maybe slightly above average.

Pretty much as mushymanrob suggested. 

Looking good. 

Typical of a more el nino and low solar activity summer. 

Blink and the unsettled weather is over. 

Of coarse more northern and north western areas might still have the effects of lower heights around Iceland Greenland area. 

But over all plenty to be positive about as we move into the second half of summer. 

 

[knocker]

The ecm going for quite a damp Friday night/Saturday for the northern half of Britain as fronts traverse the country in a very brisk westerly, Remaining showery and windy in the north on Sunday, with some more scattered showers in the south, before the ridge nudges into the latter during the day.  Temps a little above average in the south but below in the north

Edited July 10, 2017 by knocker

[Singularity]

The GFS 12z did a decent impression of the ECM 12z of yesterday, albeit with the usual issues modelling the associated 2m temps.

The ECM 12z of today feels like a slight variation on the previous 12z after this run's peculiarly aggressive solution regarding the Atlantic lows; the consensus is for these to become separated from the upper westerlies much as has been the tendency so far this summer, but most likely with the low staying west of us on this occasion.

Great building blocks for a lengthy warm/very warm spell for much or even all of the UK... Perhaps even hot at times later? Getting way ahead of myself there though!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z looks very decent next week with high pressure / ridging having the upper hand with some warmth and sunshine for most of the uk..this together with the settled looking Gfs 12z next week could mean good weather is on the way again soon.

Edited July 10, 2017 by Frosty.

[Mark wheeler]

navgem also looks nice for the weekend and behond .

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Hello Folks , so from here on changeable to unsettled conditions for the uk and some welcome rain for my garden  At day ten the op models gfs and ecm show some sort of high pressure building The gfs makes the most of this , but its day ten folks and lots will change

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

navgem also looks nice for the weekend and behond .

 

Doesn't the Navgem always look nice, Mark? Snow on Thursday?

[Mark wheeler]

38 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Doesn't the Navgem always look nice, Mark? Snow on Thursday?

I know what you mean . I'd just thought I'd give it some limelight amongst the big boys tonight . 

All Heil the Mighty Navgem 

Edited July 10, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[knocker]

NOAA and the Ext EPS are now in broad agreement this evening. Still a fairly flat westerly flow in the 6-10 period but the N/S split becoming less significant towards the end of the period so the weather generally becoming more settled.

In the 10-15 period still a very weak upper trough in the vicinity of the UK and a very slack westerly upper flow as the Azores becomes increasingly more influential and temps trending above average. The centre of the HP remains to the south west so there still remains the possibility of activity to the south which of course is mere speculation at the moment

Edited July 10, 2017 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

As others have stated an increasingly settled picture occuring beyond next weekend as pressure slowly beings to rise in response to the Azores high moving north east.

      

Between the ridges to our south west and south east, there is a weak trough across the UK which should ease away as pressure continues to build from the south west, of course how this is handled in reality is a long way from being known, it could clear eastwards or develop a cut off feature which could enhance hot conditions or be a nuisance in terms of provided cooler and more mixed conditions.

Still indications of a fine end to July are there to be seen and are backed up by other output both from publically viewed models and of course those at the metoffice.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Doesn't the Navgem always look nice, Mark? Snow on Thursday?

To be honest I never bother even looking at the Navgem..that's how nice it is.

Edited July 10, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

56 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I'd just thought I'd give it some limelight amongst the big boys tonight . 

All Heil the Mighty Navgem 

The Big Boys (Ecm / Gfs) look fine next week..The navgem should only be wheeled out in a dire emergency and even then I wouldn't bother.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean goes with a pressure rise next week with at least the southern half of the uk becoming largely settled and warmer..got my fingers crossed that northern britain (n.ireland & scotland) won't be left out in the cold..so to speak for much longer, they've suffered enough already.

[knocker]

The gfs this morning illustrates very well the inclination of this pattern to a N/S bias. Next weekend sees fronts affecting the north with some rain and a fresh westerly whilst the south is under the influence of the ridge. Also reflected in the temps with slightly above average in the south and average or a little below in the north,

From then  the high cell dominates but this is where it gets interesting as has been hinted at previously. An upper trough forms in the westerly upper flow (originating around the NW of N. America) and nips east dissecting the HP to be over Portugal by 12z Tuesday.and it invigorates the shallow, unstable, Iberian surface low.

The whole caboodle then drifts north. Does it herald another thundery outbreak for the south or will it slide north east,?

You can see where the GEFS anomaly is going with this

 

Edited July 11, 2017 by knocker

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Quote

Does it herald another thundery outbreak for the south?

Yaeh bacause the last one was SO prolific!

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Yaeh bacause the last one was SO prolific!

Good to see someone else has had an irony bypass

Anyway the ecm is quite similar to the gfs up to the beginning of next week with Saturday being quite wet and windy north of Walsall, particularly in Scotland.

At the beginning of next week it does pay lip service to the upper trough routine but doesn't develop it to any great extent and takes it further south. Thus the Iberian low is not activated to the same extent although it does eventually drift NNE. This allows the Atlantic to play a more aggressive role with a low swinging by NW of Scotland