Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Frosty.]

Impressive cape values tomorrow, should be some juicy thunderstorms and I've noticed the gfs is up to its old tricks again under playing the max temps considerably..if you like the heat, enjoy it..this is what I look forward to in summer..the north of England expects 27-28c tomorrow, the 6z says 22-23c..utter tosh!

[Gordon Webb]

26 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Impressive cape values tomorrow, should be some juicy thunderstorms and I've noticed the gfs is up to its old tricks again under playing the max temps considerably..if you like the heat, enjoy it..this is what I look forward to in summer..the north of England expects 27-28c tomorrow, the 6z says 22-23c..utter tosh!

even though have no evidence to back it up I personally think the GFS is overdoing the cape values and the amount of precipitation as well and with 27c or whatever it is forcast we'll get tomorrow will be pretty pointless been under torrential rain hail etc , not for those who enjoy that combination I suppose

Edited July 5, 2017 by Gordon Webb

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

even though have no evidence to back it up I personally think the GFS is overdoing the cape values and the amount of precipitation as well and with 27c or whatever it is forcast we'll get tomorrow will be pretty pointless been under torrential rain hail etc , not for those who enjoy that combination I suppose

You make a good point, it's silly of me showing the CAPE and agreeing with it when I don't agree with the temperatures or amount of precipitation indicated on the 6z and its the met office who are saying 27c for Yorkshire tomorrow so I will stick to what they say instead of the gfs..

Edited July 5, 2017 by Frosty.

[mushymanrob]

42 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

even though have no evidence to back it up I personally think the GFS is overdoing the cape values and the amount of precipitation as well and with 27c or whatever it is forcast we'll get tomorrow will be pretty pointless been under torrential rain hail etc , not for those who enjoy that combination I suppose

does it matter if the gfs is overdoing the cape values? theyll still be high and thunderstorms are expected for some, heavy downpours for some others and with the +15c upper isotherm nudging into southern areas let alone most of the uk being under +10 . 27c widespread in any sun before (or after) we get a storm or shower is again perfectly possible.

downtalking what we are likely to get, doesnt make it happen you know

[Gordon Webb]

5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

does it matter if the gfs is overdoing the cape values? theyll still be high and thunderstorms are expected for some, heavy downpours for some others and with the +15c upper isotherm nudging into southern areas let alone most of the uk being under +10 . 27c widespread in any sun before (or after) we get a storm or shower is again perfectly possible.

downtalking what we are likely to get, doesnt make it happen you know

Didn't beleive I was downtalking to anyone or about anything

I've reread my post and I'm not sure what i have appeared to done wrong in it

if you think I've said or written something out of place , I would like to know so I won't repeat the mistake in the future

[Frosty.]

27 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

downtalking what we are likely to get, doesnt make it happen you know

We don't know what exactly will happen tomorrow so let's wait and see how it evolves.

[Nouska]

Re the conversation about Yorkshire - checking the 00Z ECM det and 06Z UKMO (via London WAFC) looking pretty cloudy and wet tomorrow afternoon. As of this recent run, thunderstorms are expected at 15Z as witnessed by the CB hazard charts.

[Frosty.]

The south-east is again blessed with the warmest / hottest sunniest weather today, tomorrow, friday and probably saturday although tomorrow indicates some scattered but severe T-storms.

Edited July 5, 2017 by Frosty.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The south-east is again blessed with the warmest / hottest sunniest weather today, tomorrow, friday and probably saturday although tomorrow indicates some scattered but severe T-storms.

This North/South temperature contrast is getting worse every year. There should NEVER be a 10C difference between London & Manchester especially in July. It never used to be like this in the 80/90s.

[Sperrin]

It's all about perspective 40*C, I'd gladly take your 20°C instead of our mid to high teen cloudfest in NW Ireland!!

[Swave Snow]

20 minutes ago, 40*C said:

This North/South temperature contrast is getting worse every year. There should NEVER be a 10C difference between London & Manchester especially in July. It never used to be like this in the 80/90s.

It is only 4C difference for Thursday 

[Frosty.]

37 minutes ago, 40*C said:

This North/South temperature contrast is getting worse every year. There should NEVER be a 10C difference between London & Manchester especially in July. It never used to be like this in the 80/90s.

Don't worry, we will all be in the same changeable rather cool boat next week.

[Singularity]

39 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Don't worry, we will all be in the same changeable rather cool boat next week.

After a nice one-day delay on the 06z, the 12z is back to turning conditions cool with spells of rain for all by Tuesday. 

  

 

  

 

- but as GP has also been suggesting (thanks for the input), there's plenty of room in the near-neutral GLAAM setup for the Azores High to improve conditions across the south again before long. GFS 06z managed it by Friday - in fact Thursday if you find dry weather with sunny spells and high teens maximums to be fine enough on occasion.

12z is looking flatter with the jet stream across the N. Atlantic by midweek than the 06z was, but with a major trough approaching Greenland there's still the potential for the Azores High to ridge NE in conjunction with the surge of tropical maritime air heading ENE. Depends if we're seeing another case of a Scandi trough being made too broad in nature.

It'd feel reasonable enough in the SW if any sun broke through - but on this run it stays cloudy with high teens. Needless detail at this range I know, but seems realistic enough.

 

[Singularity]

 

Ah, one of those rear-flank secondary lows causing a bit of bother here. Not particularly bad in the S and SE but western residents best hope that shortwave low is a ghostly apparition .

After a lengthy hike over uneven, often rocky or boggy terrain in 26*C temperatures and blazing sun, those cool temps aren't looking as disappointing as usual to me right now .

 
This run is being difficult. There must surely be some other factor than GLAAM encouraging a La Nina-like tendency to the model output? I'm away from the PC, without my usual links, so I can't check things out myself. Just getting these charts linked is taking an age .

To finish for the day I will abandon this GFS run in favour of GEM, because, well, it's more satisfying to look at . Probably taking the 'room for ridging' idea a bit too far but it does capture the idea of it being finest in the south.

   

Edited July 5, 2017 by Singularity

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

After a nice one-day delay on the 06z, the 12z is back to turning conditions cool with spells of rain for all by Tuesday. 

  

 

  

 

- but as GP has also been suggesting (thanks for the input), there's plenty of room in the near-neutral GLAAM setup for the Azores High to improve conditions across the south again before long. GFS 06z managed it by Friday - in fact Thursday if you find dry weather with sunny spells and high teens maximums to be fine enough on occasion.

12z is looking flatter with the jet stream across the N. Atlantic by midweek than the 06z was, but with a major trough approaching Greenland there's still the potential for the Azores High to ridge NE in conjunction with the surge of tropical maritime air heading ENE. Depends if we're seeing another case of a Scandi trough being made too broad in nature.

It'd feel reasonable enough in the SW if any sun broke through - but on this run it stays cloudy with high teens. Needless detail at this range I know, but seems realistic enough.

 

It looks in line with the latest thoughts from Exeter..i.e..becoming cooler and more changeable / unsettled, coolest in the west / northwest, nearer average in the east / southeast but hardly summer like anywhere. 

[Optimus Prime]

1 hour ago, 40*C said:

This North/South temperature contrast is getting worse every year. There should NEVER be a 10C difference between London & Manchester especially in July. It never used to be like this in the 80/90s.

Absolutely correct. Backed up by regional statistics. The average summer maximum temperature for East Anglia for the last 20 years or so has shown a much greater temperature increase than what has been observed further north (compared to the 61-90 avg) for Scotland it hasn't increased much at all. And N.Ireland for that matter.

Edited July 5, 2017 by Optimus Prime

[Scorcher]

28 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Absolutely correct. Backed up by regional statistics. The average summer maximum temperature for East Anglia for the last 20 years or so has shown a much greater temperature increase than what has been observed further north (compared to the 61-90 avg) for Scotland it hasn't increased much at all. And N.Ireland for that matter.

I imagine it's less pronounced for the Manchester area though than Scotland and Northern Ireland. While we are often on the edge of the heat, we do tend to benefit from most hot spells, and certainly to a far greater degree than Scotland and Northern Ireland. Being inland and rather central with high ground to the east and south east Manchester is not in a bad position for heat in the right setup.

The average maximum in Manchester during July 2006 was 26C across the month. I can't imagine Scotland was anywhere near that. 40C exaggerates- the 10C differences between here and London are not as common as he makes out.

[Kentspur]

2 hours ago, 40*C said:

This North/South temperature contrast is getting worse every year. There should NEVER be a 10C difference between London & Manchester especially in July. It never used to be like this in the 80/90s.

One of my main reasons that I just couldn't live up north as much as I like it up there it's nice to have a few weeks of high 20s&30s to know summers paid a visit each year, poor Scotland

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

One of my main reasons that I just couldn't live up north as much as I like it up there it's nice to have a few weeks of high 20s&30s to know summers paid a visit each year, poor Scotland

Absolutely, I was just thinking the same thing, scotland looks to be having a terrible summer, well most of it at least and the models don't show any respite, indeed, it's going to be even worse up there next week and possibly further ahead.

[Optimus Prime]

31 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I imagine it's less pronounced for the Manchester area though than Scotland and Northern Ireland. While we are often on the edge of the heat, we do tend to benefit from most hot spells, and certainly to a far greater degree than Scotland and Northern Ireland. Being inland and rather central with high ground to the east and south east Manchester is not in a bad position for heat in the right setup.

The average maximum in Manchester during July 2006 was 26C across the month. I can't imagine Scotland was anywhere near that. 40C exaggerates- the 10C differences between here and London are not as common as he makes out.

Ten degrees was an extreme example but he's right to point out the general pattern here and it seems to be more prevalent the last few years. East Anglia's record average maximum for a month is 26.7c in 2006 compared to Scotland's 20.7c in Aug 1947. That's a 6c difference. 20.7c is a hideous figure. 

Back on topic. We're a species destined to follow rules and boundaries or we will be punished!

 

Edited July 5, 2017 by Optimus Prime

[Mokidugway]

30 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I imagine it's less pronounced for the Manchester area though than Scotland and Northern Ireland. While we are often on the edge of the heat, we do tend to benefit from most hot spells, and certainly to a far greater degree than Scotland and Northern Ireland. Being inland and rather central with high ground to the east and south east Manchester is not in a bad position for heat in the right setup.

The average maximum in Manchester during July 2006 was 26C across the month. I can't imagine Scotland was anywhere near that. 40C exaggerates- the 10C differences between here and London are not as common as he makes out.

It's rather crazy distance between both cities is a mere 160 miles with no major topographical features in the way .

[Frosty.]

Ecm 12z is going unsettled next week.

Edited July 5, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Ecm 12z is going unsettled next week.

It makes no difference Karl if its Summer or Winter, the models still don't have a clue past day 5, just an idea of what might be.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows the Azores high ridging in again after next midweek following an unsettled few days..whether it's right or wrong it's what's showing. looks better than the 00z in the same timeframe..and a happy ending!

Edited July 5, 2017 by Frosty.

[Mark wheeler]

20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z shows the Azores high ridging in again after next midweek following an unsettled few days..whether it's right or wrong it's what's showing. looks better than the 00z in the same timeframe..and a happy ending!

Yes frosty , I like happy endings I know it's just for fun but it's nice to be in a hot spell and then see another one potentially on the horizon.