Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Hotting up for the south on this morning's Ecm 00z with high 20's to low 30's celsius later this week and becoming more humid. Most of England and Wales becomes very warm..I would expect sunny spells with an increasing risk of thunderstorms after midweek with torrential downpours mixed with very warm sunshine.

Yes mate really quite happy with ecm this morning, hopefully the azores high can push the jetstream even further North, would be interested to hear GPs thoughts on where we are heading.:-)

[Frosty.]

45 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Stop press: The GFS and ECM keep the cut-off low cut-off!! Meaning the heat stays to its north i.e. the UK. Wednesday to Saturday all looking hot now

Yes it's a welcome upgrade for those of us who love summery weather.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes mate really quite happy with ecm this morning, hopefully the azores high can push the jetstream even further North, would be interested to hear GPs thoughts on where we are heading.:-)

Does he still post on here?, but yeah, looking like a hot Wimbledon, turning fresher on middle Sunday

[mb018538]

Met fancy upper twenties - haven't seen a 30c mentioned from them just yet, but I certainly wouldn't rule it out if we get plenty of sunshine. Funny how this hot weather can just creep up from nowhere and surprise us all!

ECM from the 28th June, T+192:



Versus actual weather we will get:



Moral of the story - things can change quickly, and at relatively short notice!

[Frosty.]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Met fancy upper twenties - haven't seen a 30c mentioned from them just yet, but I certainly wouldn't rule it out if we get plenty of sunshine. Funny how this hot weather can just creep up from nowhere and surprise us all!

ECM from the 28th June, T+192:



Versus actual weather we will get:



Moral of the story - things can change quickly, and at relatively short notice!

Agreed, what a great start to monday..hoping the rest of today's models show more heat, Sun and storms! 

[Frosty.]

Yorkshire becomes very warm according to the Ecm 00z!!!!!

Edited July 3, 2017 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[northwestsnow]

Anyway, regarding the models, the ongoing tussle between the Atlantic and the Azores high continues unabaited..

Edited July 3, 2017 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Frosty.]

Nice looking Ecm 00z ensemble mean for the southern half of the uk, especially further south which shows a very warm and increasingly humid week ahead with spells of hot sunshine and a growing chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms, it stays warm in the south until the end of this week..another taste of summery weather!

[Polar Maritime]

Many off topic posts have been removed, Please only use this thread for discussing what the Model Outputs are showing. There is always the banter/moan thread for everything else.

Thanks please continue.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

in all, not a bad week really, if you like it warm and humid plus a chance of t storms. the anoms though dont allow anything lasting so unless they are totally wrong any heat will be transitory.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[mushymanrob]

13 hours ago, Singularity said:

Something to take into account at the mo is some extreme disagreement among models with respect to the MJO; GFS has a (wacky looking) big phase 1 emerging over the next week or so, yet ECM has a phase 2/3 spike (with big impact on some recent runs; today's 12z the best example yet of phase 2 Scandi trough response), while other models generally show little activity one way or the other.

I advise paying little attention to what's currently been shown for beyond next weekend.

would you?... the anomaly charts have been quite consistent since this strong azores high pattern emerged. it seems very plausible to me and much though id like higher heights over the uk/eastern europe i would bet on anything like that happening longer then 24-36 hours.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Met fancy upper twenties - haven't seen a 30c mentioned from them just yet, but I certainly wouldn't rule it out if we get plenty of sunshine. Funny how this hot weather can just creep up from nowhere and surprise us all!

ECM from the 28th June, T+192:



Versus actual weather we will get:



Moral of the story - things can change quickly, and at relatively short notice!

It's a very fair point, these heatwaves have emerged nearer the time.

There was a clue in the past few days that something hotter could arise - most models attempted some sort of cut-off trough for this Weds/Thurs (although some didn't like the chart you show above). These Biscay/Iberian cut-off troughs always cause model mayhem. This upgrading of the cut-off low so close to the event is a little extreme, quite often the models end up correcting in the other direction with the low getting consumed by activities to its north. It's always a mighty fine balance. I wouldn't expect the next similar scenario to turn out exactly the same. 

Interesting to look at the GEFS this morning - there are some runs pushing that 20C 850hpa line back towards us - not entirely surprising given the scenario - so we can't rule out another assault on the 90F mark by the end of the week. Here's one of them - not really an outlier at all compared to the op runs.

  

[Man With Beard]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

would you?... the anomaly charts have been quite consistent since this strong azores high pattern emerged. it seems very plausible to me and much though id like higher heights over the uk/eastern europe i would bet on anything like that happening longer then 24-36 hours.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

The NOAA indeed has shown a strong Azores High pattern for a while. And it hasn't been wrong. It shouldn't usually lead to a heatwave like the one we are now forecasting for the end of the week - but cut-off lows on the eastern flank can allow a small bump of heat to move from Europe back towards the UK against the overall mean flow. It's small chances. But it does show how even when the 500mb mean charts are generally correct, they can't always allow for the micro detail.

[Man With Beard]

Last one from me. GFS 06Z going for a second cut-off low. Although the 850s are lower on this run, I can see the south staying above 80F for many, many days if this came off, and fine weather for almost all for a long time.

[Mark wheeler]

16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Last one from me. GFS 06Z going for a second cut-off low. Although the 850s are lower on this run, I can see the south staying above 80F for many, many days if this came off, and fine weather for almost all for a long time.

Yes MWB , on this run the seconds low seems to be further south than previous runs , I like this trend .

Edited July 3, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z is looking very good for an increasingly warm week, especially for southern uk with sunny spells and an increasing risk of thundery showers and higher humidity, the weekend into next week stays on the warm side further south and becomes largely fine from sunday as pressure rises..warmth increases again next week!

 

Edited July 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

6z is a belter - I suspect it will be one of the warmer if not the warmest ensemble member.....keeping the warmth there right out into FI.

Conversely, could it be a trend setter?

[Frosty.]

The 6z is so good I showed the same chart twice but wasn't quick enough to edit it..my bad

[Man With Beard]

Oh I couldn't resist another post. The GFS 06Z is going mental. If this run is right, install air conditioning if you live in the south, if you can afford it

    

[Man With Beard]

By T144, 6 or 7 GEFS members cut off the second low in the same way as the op. Several very hot runs into next week. Trend?

[Frosty.]

Quite a plume event in low res on the Gfs 6z..low 90's F potential before it ends with a bang..all in all, nice upgrades for warmth / heat on the runs so far today..more goodies to come later hopefully!

Edited July 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[Snowy L]

I swear we've had this trend of a few days of hot weather followed by a few days of awful weather followed by a couple of weeks of average weather since March. Seems we've had this pattern repeat every month since then and it's about to happen in July too.

[Frosty.]

Impressive cape values on thursday, there could be severe thunderstorms as well as the heat and humidity with hot hazy sunshine around too. I love extreme weather..looks like this week could deliver, not just thurs but fri and possibly into the weekend too!

Edited July 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[Gordon Webb]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Impressive cape on thursday, there could be severe thunderstorms as well as the heat and humidity with hot hazy sunshine around too. I love extreme weather..looks like this week could deliver, not just thurs but fri and possibly into the weekend too!

of course GFS is known for overdoing it but whatever makes you happy

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Gordon Webb said:

of course GFS is known for overdoing it but whatever makes you happy

It's not about what makes me happy, I'm just showing what the models are indicating for those who appreciate it!!