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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

And so on. This little upper low starts off life today over on the NE seaboard and sits here on Thursday which is crucial to the surface low sneaking north into southern England. :shok:

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Briefly as I'm on mobile (in fact, on holiday... so I'm being a bit sneaky!) - GFS has today trended toward a more effective cutting-off of the Iberian/French low mid-late next week, resulting in more of a ridge to the N/NE with an E flow for E&W with some very warm or even quite hot afternoons Fri-Sat (depending on where you happen to set the thresholds).

UKMO is not as enthusiastic, with more eastward motion to the low retained through Friday, shifting the peak warmth away with it although a weak trough undergoing disruption and southward elongation out west of the UK could serve to hold-up the movement of that very warm air, possibly with a breakdown of sorts occurring on Saturday so just a little sooner than GFS (by 12 hours, say).

ECM was most progressive this morning with the European low not hanging about at all. Will it at least share GFS' trend, or continue to whisk the low away and bring a return to somewhat changeable westerly flow?

I believe we're still seeing a bit too much 'La Nina-ness' being forced on the patterns by the models from as soon as next weekend so I'd not be surprised to see the very warm conditions extended further than the current consensus.

Ha - turns out I managed to snatch a bit more time than I expected so there was some reasonable detail in this post after all :pardon:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm this evening is not significantly different to this morning in the more reliable time frame and it still running the upper low (not dissimilar to the gfs) to southern France by 12z Thursday

But prior to that on Monday the UK is in a NW showery airflow with the low pressure to the north east and weak ridging to the south west. But out in mid Atlantic a small system has been spawned by the aforementioned upper low as it tracks east en route to France. The surface feature also tracks quickly east to bring rain the northern half of the UK on Tuesday. Interesting contrast of temps here with 12-14C in the north of England and 19-21C in the south.

This quickly tracks into the North Sea to be replaced by a transient ridge on Wednesday before we arrive back again to Thursday. By 12z the trough to the NW and associated fronts are encroaching north west Scotland and the low over France is very active producing a whack of convective precipitation. The $64,000 question is will this slide north and impact the south. The ecm says yes this evening SE of a line Humber to Bristol with temps in the 25C area. But of course this is five days away merely of interest at the moment.

The unstable low then moves away east but another Atlantic system nips in and traverses the UK on Saturday

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z certainly shows a warm up for the south by midweek and especially on thursday when temps are into the mid 20's celsius across most of England and Wales, potentially upper 20's c for the s / se and increasing humidity too so a growing chance of heavy showers / thunderstorms for a time.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z certainly shows a warm up for the south by midweek and especially on thursday when temps are into the mid 20's celsius across most of England and Wales, potentially upper 20's c for the s / se and increasing humidity too so a growing chance of heavy showers / thunderstorms for a time.:)

 

Assuming most of England is SE a line Humber to Bristol and  Wales is nowhere near that temp generally 18-20C possibly around 20-21C in the exstream east.  And potentially of course it could be the low 20s C

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
51 minutes ago, knocker said:

Assuming most of England is SE a line Humber to Bristol and  Wales is nowhere near that temp generally 18-20C possibly around 20-21C in the exstream east.  And potentially of course it could be the low 20s C

Or mid 20s if GFS is right. In this case the line from the 'Humber to Bristol' doesn't apply as it shows some of the highest temperatures in NW England and North Wales. You mention this line a lot (I know it's sometimes the Wash rather than the Humber) but areas north and west of this line often do well too.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
20 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Or mid 20s if GFS is right. In this case the line from the 'Humber to Bristol' doesn't apply as it shows some of the highest temperatures in NW England and North Wales. You mention this line a lot (I know it's sometimes the Wash rather than the Humber) but areas north and west of this line often do well too.

Considering I was replying to a post specifically discussing the 12Z ecm your post is irrelevant and I presume you have stuck your oar in just to have a go at me. And I replied in the first place because the original post is factually incorrect as it is not what the ecm is saying vis the surface temps on Thursday.

 

 

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: south wales uk
  • Weather Preferences: hot and sunny
  • Location: south wales uk

Few days of warmth there better than nothing:)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
12 minutes ago, knocker said:

Considering I was replying to a post specifically discussing the 12Z ecm your post is irrelevant and I presume you have stuck your oar in just to have a go at me. And I replied in the first place because the original post is factually incorrect as it is not what the ecm is saying vis the surface temps on Thursday.

 

 

 

 

Well you presume wrong, just making a point that the ECM 12Z is one run, and while it may be right in the long run it's a good deal cooler than the the GFS 12Z, so not sure your nit-picking of Frosty's post was really warranted.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
13 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Well you presume wrong, just making a point that the ECM 12Z is one run, and while it may be right in the long run it's a good deal cooler than the the GFS 12Z, so not sure your nit-picking of Frosty's post was really warranted.

I'm really not bothered whether you are sure or not but I was not nit-picking the post. Frosty often takes some fairly rough ecm 850mb temp charts and makes sweeping statements about the surface temps from them which is not particularly wise and very often is not what the ecm is actually saying, as in this case. I was just attempting to point this out.

I also find your criticism that my posts do not often fairly represent the broad picture of the outputs and thus are rather biased rather odd in view of the fact, as far as I'm aware, you have not levelled this charge on any other posts and thus presumably find them all okay.

And to reiterate I'm well aware the ecm is only one run but as I've already pointed out, in the context of my answer, this is irrelevant.

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
19 minutes ago, knocker said:

I notice that the usual worthies agree with you so presumably I must be in the wrong. No surprises there then.

stop being such a drama queen and stick to the model discussion please, it's what you're good at (not the sarcasm bit, it was not warranted in the slightest!)............

re. the models, certainly encouraged by the last 24 hour batch of outputs, the consensus seems to be towards a nice warm up for the southern half of the UK after midweek with some quite impressive temps (23-28C) on the cards, and hopefully this time, a thundery breakdown...after the warm up, we're back in FI territory so outputs post T168 to be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt

Edited by ajpoolshark
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

stop being such a drama queen and stick to the model discussion please, it's what you're good at (not the sarcasm bit, it was not warranted in the slightest!)............

r

I wasn't being a drama queen and it certainly was warranted. I do not have a problem with criticism providing it correctly addresses what I was saying. In this case it did not as I have pointed out.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Temperatures on the up during the week ahead according to the Gfs 18z with low to mid 20's celsius and upper 20's c for the south-east for a time later next week..overall, a return of proper summer next week, especially further south..much better than the unseasonably cool and very wet spell recently!:)

Considering how the Gfs tends to undercook the maxima it looks like mid 20's c looks realistic and a little higher for the SE.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Temperatures on the up during the week ahead according to the Gfs 18z with low to mid 20's celsius and upper 20's c for the south-east for a time later next week..overall, a return of proper summer next week, especially further south..much better than the unseasonably cool and very wet spell recently!:)

Considering how the Gfs tends to undercook the maxima it looks like mid 20's c looks realistic and a little higher for the SE.

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The output is looking good, Frosty. No doubt the usual doommongerers will paint a bad picture though! Keep up the good work and positivity, we love to see it!

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

Hi Frosty, me and the family are heading down to Cornwall on Monday for a week. Do you think it will be sunny and warm down there? Sorry I am not the best at looking at the models. Anything will be better than the rubbish we have here in Scotland I guess :D

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Stormeh said:

Hi Frosty, me and the family are heading down to Cornwall on Monday for a week. Do you think it will be sunny and warm down there? Sorry I am not the best at looking at the models. Anything will be better than the rubbish we have here in Scotland I guess :D

Hiya, it certainly looks a better week ahead in terms of temperatures and less rain compared to recent days and I expect more in the way of sunshine..at least it will feel like summer where you're going. :)

Ps..thanks CK1981

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Hiya, it certainly looks a better week ahead in terms of temperatures and less rain compared to recent days and I expect more in the way of sunshine..at least it will feel like summer where you're going. :)

Ps..thanks CK1981

Awesome, thanks! Anything above 16c is summer weather to me :D

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The gfs this morning

The upper low which will be of interest later in the week has just left the north east seaboard en route to France. By 12z Wednesday it is  north of Corune and the surface low,has merged with a low pressure area originating in NW Africa to form a new low south west of the Brest Peninsula with associated fronts. Prior to to this it spawns a small disturbance in mid Atlantic which nips east and brings some light rain to the north and Scotland on Tuesday.

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It is the travels of the Brest low which are of interest. The gfs has it tracking almost due east and by 12z Thursday it is over northern France with the rain belt being confined to the far south of England whilst at the same time a light westerly airstream affects Scotland. Temperature wise this reverses the usual procedure with 16-17C in the south east and 19-22C elsewhere. A bit of a change from the previous day where temps are generally quite good ranging from 16C in Scotland to 25C in the far south of England.

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The low continues to track east to be replaced by a ridge from the south west but the next low is tracking rapidly ENE which suppresses the ridge for a time and by 00z Saturday is over the Western Isles and bringing rain into Scotland during Saturday but it's traveling so quickly that by 18 it is over southern Scandinavia. Temps generally around average.

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From here it is merely a resumption of the battle between the Azores, the centre of which remains firmly to the south west which is not good news, and the cooler air to the north west and the troughs tracking east

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So all in all a fairly mixed bag with the Azores/trough scenario causing the usual N/S split but interrupted by the possible incursion of the low from the south midweek.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Dare I say the Ecm 00z looks even warmer than last night's 12z later in the week ahead for the south..certainly feeling like summer again!:shok::D

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Pretty good ecm this morning, warm air hanging around throughout, and the Azores high doing a fair job of keeping low pressure at arms length.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The bits and bolts of the ecm are pretty much the same as the gfs albeit the details vary.

By 18z Wednesday the low to the south is starting to get established over the Brest peninsula with the UK in a light SE drift Out in the west fronts are tracking towards NW Scotland So dry apart from some showers in the north of England with temps ranging from  14C -21C north of the Midlands to 23c to 25C in the far south.

The low to the south continues intensify and 24 hours later is over France initiating some very active looking convective activity, some of which spreads north east into S/SE England. Meanwhile the previously mentioned fronts have tracked south east across Scotland and northern England. Could well be a wet day in most parts albeit quite warm rain with temps generally 22-24C in England and around 18C in Scotland.

The unsettled weather of Thursday move away east but the next system from the west is not long in arriving and by 12z Saturday more rain is into Ireland and the west of England which tracks south east clearing Kent by midday Sunday.

From there a quite strong westerly regime as the cooler and warmer air does battle.with the warmer so the usual N/S split which is also indicated by the temp profile.

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The problem with this  is that by the end of the run the HP center is sill far away to the south west as the trough again exerts itself. Which rather supports the anomalies that there is no sign of any sustained warmth at the moment.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden

The azores high is stronger in the latest runs especially from ECM, right now  it is the only thing that can save July from being a mediocre month

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
11 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

The azores high is stronger in the latest runs especially from ECM, right now  it is the only thing that can save July from being a mediocre month

Yes we need the azores high to be displaced more towards the uk for good summer weather..it's certainly trying!:)..it looks like warming up through the week..especially across the south. Hopefully a sustained settled spell will arrive in a couple of weeks.

Edited by Frosty.
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