Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[knocker]

Much improved GEFS in the medium term consistently keeping the temps around average

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 6z mean is much easier on the eyes than recently, next week looks decent, particularly further south with pleasantly warm sunny spells thanks to Azores ridging..in fact, the AH influence becomes even stronger into week 2..much improved picture compared to the recent sub standard muck!

In a nutshell..BIG improvement potentially.

Edited June 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Again the signals for July are pointing to increased Azores high influence which could then lead to very warm continental incursions, at least for the southern half of the uk with the north (scotland & n.ireland) staying generally more changeable / oceanic but from mid July there continues to be potential for a very summery spell to develop, initially across the s / se and then extending north to most / all of the uk as time goes on..still plenty of summer to come! 

Still some changeable blips even further south but generally it's an improving picture compared to this week.

Edited June 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Big improvement in the GEFS 6z in the mid range compared to yesterday when there was much more support for cool unsettled weather towards mid July but today there is much more Azores high and general high pressure influence covering most of the uk..hope this continues! 

Even the shorter range has improved with the south in particular enjoying warmer and sunnier conditions thanks to Azores ridging, both this weekend and at times next week. 

 

[Summer Sun]

It's nice to see high pressure back on show for next week any rain should become more limited to northern Scotland as the week goes on

[mushymanrob]

im no fan of the azores high unless it displaces. if it sits over the azores all summer we are likely to get a very average summer... itll suit some and at least it wouldnt be a 07,08.12 style washout, but itll frustrate those of us longing for some heat.

[Summer Sun]

Looks like some summer heat could be returning to the south next week only lasts 48 hours though bar the extreme south where it may last into Saturday

[I remember Atlantic 252]

maybe covers on and off opening day, not the best looking fax

[Summer Sun]

Ensembles firming up on a warmer spell later next week before falling back into the 2nd full week

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12z indicates a much better week ahead compared to this one with a ridge of high pressure over the uk, best weather further south where the highest  temperatures and most sunshine could be expected.

[Singularity]

Taking GFS 12z and applying increasingly large - with time -eastward correction of the ridges from the Azores to account for likely AAM bias leads to a decent overall outlook for southern parts and not half bad further north too .

UKMO looking good for midweek once the weak disturbance has cleared early-mid Tue.

ECM unfolding as I type...

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

UKMO looking good for midweek once the weak disturbance has cleared early-mid Tue.

 

My point was the ukmo 12z looks much better overall compared to recent days, with a largely fine weekend ahead across most of England and Wales and plenty of decent weather next week compared to this weeks dross. As you say, best from midweek on further south so potentially good news for Wimbledon generally speaking and for the first test at Lord's next Thursday.

Edited June 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[Scorcher]

34 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Ensembles firming up on a warmer spell later next week before falling back into the 2nd full week

Yes looking like a big improvement, it could well cool off again afterwards but then again when do the ensembles not show a cool down later on?

[knocker]

The ecm is nothing if not consistent as it's quite similar to last night's run.

The nasty low of the past few days finally departs east allowing the Azores to ridge from the south west so drier and quieter conditions for most over the weekend. The exception being northern Scotland as a shallow low skirts close by tomorrow bringing some rain and strong winds. This quickly tracks east into Scandinavia but leaves Scotland in a showery westerly airstream on Sunday.

Meanwhile another little low has spawned along the NE seaboard and this tracks quickly east around the ridge to arrive over Ireland and norther England by midday on Tuesday so a wet day for much of England with south possibly escaping. Could actually be quite cool in the north of England with max down in 12-13C range.

This perturbation quickly moves  away east allowing the Azores to ridge once more but by late Thursday the low pressure to the north west again begins to assert itself and associated fronts are beginning to impact north west Scotland by 18z. These fronts track south east over Friday bringing some light showery rain along with them and clearing the south east in the early hours on Saturday. Temps a bit on the cool side towards the end of the week apart from Thursday where they may reach 24-25C in the deep south.

 

Edited June 30, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows a considerable warm up for the south later next week with temperatures into the mid 20's celsius and increasing humidity so the chance of T-Storms developing. Overall, much better looking output than this week..wouldn't be difficult would it!?

Edited June 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Just to clarify, when I said overall much better output 're this weekend and next week, I meant all the 12z runs combined and not necessarily the Ecm run..

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All.....  Looking at the op models both gfs and ecm  show a very changeable outlook with the jet stream overriding the Azores high. I really feel that these sort of synoptics are not friendly towards any who like high summer weather and on the other side of the coin those who like Thunderstorms  The Azores high is not doing us any favour in the week ahead  So we are left with cloudy .cool conditions weather and colder to the northwest / drier and warmer the further southeast you go  ....Oh well perhaps my 1975ish summer wont happen

[TJS1998Tom]

The 18z is looking much better for warmer temperatures now in the coming week or so, hopefully the models keep it up

[mb018538]

Morning all -

Certainly the potential for things to be much warmer through the coming week:



While it certainly won't be blue skies and wall-to-wall sunshine, there will be some brighter interludes. As ever in these sort of set ups, the best of the conditions will be across the SE nearer to the high pressure.

[knocker]

Morning campers and now we have got the last three days out of the way onwards and upwards to the delight's of this morning's ecm.

Skipping this weekend as most should be familiar with this by now 12z Monday sees the UK in a showery NW airstream (briefly) with low pressure to the north east and the Azores HP ridging in from the south west.

But a small depression that originates over on the NE seaboard today has tracked quickly east around the ridge and this and associated fronts impact the UK on Tuesday bringing rain mainly to the northern half of the country. Also some marked temp contrasts with 13-14C in the north and 21C in the deep south.

This quickly clears east but by 12z Thursday we have a two pronged attack with the Atlantic trough edging in from the north west and the Iberian low tracking up from the south so frontal rain in the north west and unstable convective outbreaks in the south. Reflected in the temp rang of 14C in the NW and 25C in the south east.

So after a very mixed bag Thursday this gives way to some more transient ridging before the next low arrives on the scene and by 12z Saturday is north of Scotland with associated fronts bringing rain to most but particularly in the north.

[Northwest NI]

Before the next low 

Is the pattern set.

[mb018538]

We need to pay attention to the back end of next week - there could be a pulse of heat creeping up on us from nowhere. It's all very knife-edge, and could go either way.
But the 6z brings some very warm/hot air into the south by Thursday and Friday, with temps very close to 30c once more:



One to keep tabs on. Nothing long lasting as the Atlantic sweeps the hot air away, but a bonus at this stage I'd say.

[Summer Sun]

50 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

We need to pay attention to the back end of next week - there could be a pulse of heat creeping up on us from nowhere. It's all very knife-edge, and could go either way.
But the 6z brings some very warm/hot air into the south by Thursday and Friday, with temps very close to 30c once more:



One to keep tabs on. Nothing long lasting as the Atlantic sweeps the hot air away, but a bonus at this stage I'd say.

This was 1st hinted at by GFS back on Tuesday night I think it was it then dropped it only for it to return again even the beeb said last night we'll see a warming trend as the week goes on

[knocker]

5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

We need to pay attention to the back end of next week - there could be a pulse of heat creeping up on us from nowhere. It's all very knife-edge, and could go either way.
But the 6z brings some very warm/hot air into the south by Thursday and Friday, with temps very close to 30c once more:



One to keep tabs on. Nothing long lasting as the Atlantic sweeps the hot air away, but a bonus at this stage I'd say.

The ecm did pick this up this morning with the shallow unstable low moving north, initially from Iberia, Then it rather crucially depended on the Azores ridging enough to keep the trough from the Atlantic further north but not too much as to impede the low pushing north

[Summer Sun]

The south could see 30c again later in the week as we import some heat from France