Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Summer Sun]

Who's up for some more heat? I am

 

[TJS1998Tom]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Who's up for some more heat? I am

 

Hopefully the next couple of runs will follow the same pattern

[Chris.R]

As long as it doesn't last too long and ends in a proper thundery breakdown. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Are the models latching on again to a warm/hot spell?,this wasn't showing recently

i do remember the last hot spell that the models wasn't forecasting it until nearer the time

latest from NOAA anomoly's

6-10 and 8-14,hp influencial to the NE into Scandi that Knocker (i think) was refering to previously,whether we got a warm/hot SE from there we would have to wait and see

Edited June 27, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[TJS1998Tom]

35 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Are the models latching on again to a warm/hot spell?,this wasn't showing recently

i do remember the last hot spell that the models wasn't forecasting it until nearer the time

latest from NOAA anomoly's

6-10 and 8-14,hp influencial to the NE into Scandi that Knocker (i think) was refering to previously,whether we got a warm/hot SE from there we would have to wait and see

Possibly we'll see a  repeat of June where it started out cool and partly wet but gradually warmed up half way through the month

[knocker]

The least said about today the better.

A general observation of this morning's gfs for the next ten days or so. The upper trough/low which is making today and the rest of the week very unsettled finally moves away east on Saturday allowing the Azores to ridge NE  From here the transition to the new regime involving, as everyone is very familiar with,  the interaction of the trough(s) tracking east from N. Canada/Greenland and the warmer Azores airmass as it ridges N/NE  Further complicated by a lone upper low which has left the eastern seaboard on Saturday and does appear have a negative impact on the Azores ridging north east. This is not a bombardment from the Atlantic as for a period next week the upper flow is fairly weak but it will portend some changeable weather, albeit a vast improvement on this week, tending to a N/S split.

A touch more detail. The weekend a vast improvement from this week and mostly dry apart  from Scotland which is affected by the low that passes to the north. Temps around average. For the next couple of days the HP hangs on down south but weak systems run around it affecting the top threequarters of the UK  with spasmodic light rain. A wide range of temps from 15C in Scotland to 23C in the far south. For the next couple of days generally dry but by Thursday fronts are approaching from the NW and aforementioned lone wolf upper low has activated low pressure area over Iberia which is edging north. The detail of this is a long way from being sorted so best left here. Given this scenario the temps gradually improve during the week ending on a high on Friday with a swathe of temps 28-29C south east of a line Bristol to the Wash. But this is nine days away so just a watching brief as the rather technical evolution will change before then. The first week of Wimbledon would take this.

Edited June 28, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The UK is under there somewhere..and look at that heat further east/southeast!

The good news is following all this rain, the weekend looks drier and brighter for many.

Edited June 28, 2017 by Frosty.

[sparky1972]

8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Who's up for some more heat? I am

 

can we bring that heat forward 24hrs, im at Lincoln castle for an outdoor concert on the 8th, lol

[knocker]

No big surprise that ecm differs from the gfs far the latter part of next week as this is a long way from a done deal.

The main problem being it tracks our lone wolf upper low further north so that by 00z Wednesday it is west of Biscay and, crucially, it has reconnected to the main trough to the NW.

Thus we have a large surface low pressure area just to the west/south west of the UK which over the next 24 hours consolidates and swings into the UK bringing widespread thundery? rain to the south.The rest of the run unsettled as the low pressure moves slowly east.

Is there something nasty lurking in the woodshed Sid?

Edited June 28, 2017 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

35 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

can we bring that heat forward 24hrs, im at Lincoln castle for an outdoor concert on the 8th, lol

GFS brings it forward 48hrs on the 00z

[mb018538]

Looks like the 12z last night was a bit of an oasis in the desert, so to speak. Much more fluid and mobile solution progged this morning, which in all honesty is more likely to come off. Not looking anything like as unsettled in the short term though, which will be a nice break after all the rain!

[johnholmes]

Re how the anomaly charts look

There is little resemblance to the last 6-10 from NOAA if one compares it to what the same model showed a week before the settled spell began over much of England and Wales.

[Man With Beard]

Models this morning revert, pretty much, back to what they were showing yesterday morning - "changeable", with a little window for something warmer in the middle of next week. 

      

I wouldn't throw out yesterday's 12Z runs yet though - as usual, a lot depends on how the Atlantic trough splits as it comes up against the high pressure "bump" and we know very well that these D6 charts are too far away to get a forecast from. The UKMO looks slightly alone in pushing the trough right through - some sort of splitting looks inevitable.

Further out, too early to see if my "Scandi Heights" theory is coming off (that's to revisit in a couple of weeks!), but what we can see shows a fairly flat pattern across the Atlantic but with the Azores High sufficiently lifted to allow for decent warmer spells across all parts of the UK at times, with these better spells lasting longest in the south.

   

So while the ECM op might have been a bit disappointing this morning, I think it is on the very pessimistic end of the possibilities. The GEM seems to fit the overall picture well this morning - after this week, mainly decent weather for the south with the odd rainy day, decent spells shorter the further north one goes. Unlikely to trouble the 30C mark any time soon though.

 

[Dangerous55019]

11 hours ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Hopefully the next couple of runs will follow the same pattern

Personally I think that they will @TJS1998Tom 

11 hours ago, Chris.R said:

As long as it doesn't last too long and ends in a proper thundery breakdown. 

Seconded, thirded and fourthed @Chris.R 

And moving swiftly back on topic...
Just been having a look at the CFS weekly anomalies... And this is whats showing for weeks three and four. 

And before anyone says it, yes I know its the CFS, but I find it really quite good at picking up on possible trends. 

[Summer Sun]

ECM ens and Op differ from the 5th ens keeps pressure around 1015mb

Edited June 28, 2017 by Summer Sun

[DR(S)NO]

Out of interest, what's the forecast for the Hurricane Season this year?

Perhaps an early start could have some influence on the rest of our Summer?

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Out of interest, what's the forecast for the Hurricane Season this year?

Perhaps an early start could have some influence on the rest of our Summer?

The forecast was for above average this year....and it's started off fairly lively for so early on In the season!

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-most-likely-year

We've already had Arlene, Bret and Cindy before June is out!

[mb018538]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM ens and Op differ from the 5th ens keeps pressure around 1015mb

I did think that the 00z ECM run looked a bit off.....turns out it was a massive outlier!

[mushymanrob]

On 25/06/2017 at 08:51, mushymanrob said:

the last height anomaly build though came overnight, the 8-14 day chart failed to pick it up in that timeframe and this appears to happen quite frequently. it wouldnt surprise me at all if there was a switch in their predictive pattern  as they re-align  when a height rise becomes apparent. it would fit with the general long wave pattern of troughing and ridging too..... im optimistic, but would be happier with a weaker jet.

........... and here it is, overnight a ridge appears thus supporting the models suggesting a lengthier (but not long) settled spell next week instead of the transient ridge.  ok, its not overly strong, but the 8-14 day chart failed to spot it as it did last time. this is what i have been expecting, as it fits in with the longwave pattern . interestingly the anoms are steadfast in their height rises over scandinavia, something the ops havnt yet properly agreed with, but will, and overall theres good grounds for optimism. imho the outlook is looking promising for at least some pleasant summers weather, and something hot is, id suggest, likely.

[knocker]

14 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

........... and here it is, overnight a ridge appears thus supporting the models suggesting a lengthier (but not long) settled spell next week instead of the transient ridge.  ok, its not overly strong, but the 8-14 day chart failed to spot it as it did last time. this is what i have been expecting, as it fits in with the longwave pattern . interestingly the anoms are steadfast in their height rises over scandinavia, something the ops havnt yet properly agreed with, but will, and overall theres good grounds for optimism. imho the outlook is looking promising for at least some pleasant summers weather, and something hot is, id suggest, likely.

Morning Rob

I take on board what you are saying but I can't help feeling these positive anomalies around N. Scandinavia are a bit of a red herring. In fact if anything the ridge is  influencing the orientation of the Greenland trough negatively as far as the UK is concerned. I agree that the grounds for optimism centre around a weakening of the westerly upper flow and the Azores building from the SW/S which is what the GES and EPS are indicating. Well using a touch of poetic license.

 

[Weatherlad50]

From looking at the GFS output on the 00Z run, it appeared that a strong ridge was going to generate some heat next week However, there has been a complete change of heart in the 06Z RUN with the heat being swept away. It appears that the weekend is going to be drier and brighter than Tuesday to Friday of this week with some sunshine but a front appears to be going to arrive on Saturday night across parts of England and Wales. The longer range CFS models are indicating something drier and warmer for the second, third and perhaps fourth weeks of July but I think its going to become a disappointing summer with the Jetstream being particularly powerful and with the amplification from the Eastern US this is going to send more low pressure  systems our way next week. We need the Scandi and azores highs to join up to get some sustained dry and settled weather - I cant see us getting a Spanish plume again this summer.

[Weatherlad50]

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. this indicates a quieter period in the Tropics

[Weatherlad50]

Very disappointing 06Z GFS run with the precipitation and pressure charts showing a lot of unsettled weath

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, DR(S)NO said:

Out of interest, what's the forecast for the Hurricane Season this year?

Perhaps an early start could have some influence on the rest of our Summer?

Although there are one or two negative signals (the Pacific is still warmer than average, there's a big warm blob off the east coast which will draw vorcity north of the deep Tropics) the weight of evidence suggests that we should see an above average season. Monsoonal activity over Africa is above average, the deep tropics have warmer than average sea surface temperatures and we are seeing a trend towards neutral/Nina conditions in the Pacific which should promote lower than average pressure downstream over the Atlantic. 

Personally i am extremely optimistic. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yesterdays ECM 12Z was I think way off, 00Z looks realistic, GFS 12Z trending the same

covers on