Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Frosty.]

I don't think anyone is expecting a return to what we had a week ago..but something drier, brighter and warmer would be welcome!

[Singularity]

 

When the 12z is rolling out we need to watch for whether the jet digs down as sharply as the 06z on the right shows (quite the change from the 00z it has to be said!); this is the sort of behaviour that gives ridges the upper hand in the face of troughs trying to push through, as the latter will tend to disrupt against the ridge.

The mechanism for this is too fine for ensembles to pick up very well until shorter notice than the operational runs, so if it was to firm up then the ensembles would show a significant shift in response, probably in the space of just a few runs.

I'd not be taking all that much notice of it (this is the 06z after all) if it wasn't for the fact that the ECM 00z also depicted such a change in trough characteristics. Something does seem to be afoot.

Edited June 27, 2017 by Singularity
Clarification

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Singularity said:

 

When the 12z is rolling out we need to watch for whether the jet digs down as sharply as the 06z on the right shows (quite the change from the 00z it has to be said!); this is the sort of behaviour that gives ridges the upper hand in the face of troughs trying to push through, as the latter will tend to disrupt against the ridge.

The mechanism for this is too fine for ensembles to pick up very well until shorter notice than the operational runs, so if it was to firm up then the ensembles would show a significant shift in response, probably in the space of just a few runs.

I'd not be taking all that much notice of it (this is the 06z after all) if it wasn't for the fact that the ECM 00z also depicted such a change in trough characteristics. Something does seem to be afoot.

I'm sorry but I'm not following that. The ecm chart for that time and date is quite a bit different. I cannot post the chart but the trough has already disrupted with a cut off upper low and the ridging over the UK is not as pronounced. The jet does swing around the low but then back over the UK where it reconnects to the northern arm.

Edited June 27, 2017 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

This is much more like it more runs like this, please

Edited June 27, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Singularity]

@knocker my point is that the ECM 00z  had the trough disruption, something GFS did not entertain until the 06z.

. . .

Anyway, the 12z (right) has followed suit from the 06z (left), in fact it's impressively consistent;

 

Looking at Tuesday, I think this run will walk closer to the edge of settled condition midweek, as the jet does not bifurcate as effectively as it did on the 06z (right-most chart).

        

 

[Frosty.]

Early signs are good that the Gfs 6z wasn't a fluke, the 12z also warms up and becomes more settled early next week as pressure rises..feeling like summer again next week!

Edited June 27, 2017 by Frosty.

[Singularity]

14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

This is much more like it more runs like this, please

Impressive strength to the ridge from the Azores there.

This shift in the model output in the manner that I've been looking out for during the past week serves as demonstration of the effectiveness of studying GLAAM tendencies and trends and using those to draw conclusions as to what the models are most likely to be making some mistakes with.

See how the observed GLAAM continues to fight its way slowly but surely closer to the neutral zone, with the mean projection for the next fortnight having to edge upward in accordance.

I know it's far from a done deal at this stage, but it's the fact that the models have shifted in the first place that I'm working with; it shows the theory is sound, even if something happens to crop up at shorter notice and make a mess of things .

[knocker]

14 minutes ago, Singularity said:

@knocker my point is that the ECM 00z  had the trough disruption, something GFS did not entertain until the 06z.

. . .

Anyway, the 12z (right) has followed suit from the 06z (left), in fact it's impressively consistent;

 

Looking at Tuesday, I think this run will walk closer to the edge of settled condition midweek, as the jet does not bifurcate as effectively as it did on the 06z (right-most chart).

        

 

Or even unsettled whilst at the same time kicking the earlier promoted Scandinavian ridge into touch

Fits reasonably well with the 06 anomaly

Edited June 27, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Never thought I would be so excited to see the 22c the Gfs 12z is indicating next week but after the dismal wet 14c tomorrow..the only way is up!

[knocker]

Actually the gfs goes completely off piste with a surge of amplification mid Atlantic that rapidly creates a high cell over Greenland/iceland.

[Dancerwithwings]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Never thought I would be so excited to see the 22c the Gfs 12z is indicating next week but after the dismal wet 14c tomorrow..the only way is up!

If it was this time last week I would of been thinking the same thing....in the 30s to 22c

Next week the 12z UKMO is certainly looking better.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

If it was this time last week I would of been thinking the same thing....in the 30s to 22c

Next week the 12z UKMO is certainly looking better.

Ay, spectators will need their sun cream, 25° and sunny

[Singularity]

As Knocker has highlighted, it's not quite enough for western parts on the 12z GFS as a decaying frontal boundary is able to act as a focus for some showers or longer spells of rain (the latter mostly for Scotland).

 

Still enough sunny spells in between for some fairly warm afternoons though (note that I don't mean in the sense of departure from average);

 

 

- but as expected, not as fine as the 06z was for midweek. It does try to make up for it with some improved output beyond that time, though.

 

UKMO looks more promising for keeping those frontal boundaries away from the UK entirely although you can never assume all that much when it comes to the weather in this part of the world. 

[Frosty.]

There's certainly some positive runs today, the Gfs 6z and ukmo 12z spring to mind with an increasingly settled and warmer spell next week..over to the Ecm 12z, hopefully the Euros will stick together!

[Ice Man 85]

8 minutes ago, Singularity said:

As Knocker has highlighted, it's not quite enough for western parts on the 12z GFS as a decaying frontal boundary is able to act as a focus for some showers or longer spells of rain (the latter mostly for Scotland).

 

Still enough sunny spells in between for some fairly warm afternoons though (note that I don't mean in the sense of departure from average);

 

 

- but as expected, not as fine as the 06z was for midweek. It does try to make up for it with some improved output beyond that time, though.

 

UKMO looks more promising for keeping those frontal boundaries away from the UK entirely although you can never assume all that much when it comes to the weather in this part of the world. 

I think conditions and temps shown on those charts would suit everyone. Even me; dry and sunny but COMFORTABLE. Provided the GFS isn't undercooking and therefore I'd need to see 19c or so to create around 22c. No more heat, please. It can be dry, sunny and comfortable all it wants, just no heat!

[mb018538]

Much better from the UKMO run...looks almost like how the previous hot spell came about, with a cut off low allowing for the Azores high to build in. Not saying it's going to get hot again, but if it could dry out and the sun could come back that'd be great after today!

[Frosty.]

33 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

If it was this time last week I would of been thinking the same thing....in the 30s to 22c

Next week the 12z UKMO is certainly looking better.

The organizers at Wimbledon will be praying the ukmo 12z is on the money, don't want next week to be another damp squib..or week 2!

Edited June 27, 2017 by Frosty.

[DR(S)NO]

43 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I think conditions and temps shown on those charts would suit everyone. Even me; dry and sunny but COMFORTABLE. Provided the GFS isn't undercooking and therefore I'd need to see 19c or so to create around 22c. No more heat, please. It can be dry, sunny and comfortable all it wants, just no heat!

Sorry, not trying to be smart here but are these charts showing dry, sunny and comfortable .....conditions that would suit everyone?

 

[Frosty.]

So far so good..regarding next week on the Ecm 12z with pressure rising across the uk, settling our weather down early next week..even better by next midweek..nice

Edited June 27, 2017 by Frosty.

[samadamsuk]

1 hour ago, Singularity said:

Impressive strength to the ridge from the Azores there.

This shift in the model output in the manner that I've been looking out for during the past week serves as demonstration of the effectiveness of studying GLAAM tendencies and trends and using those to draw conclusions as to what the models are most likely to be making some mistakes with.

See how the observed GLAAM continues to fight its way slowly but surely closer to the neutral zone, with the mean projection for the next fortnight having to edge upward in accordance.

I know it's far from a done deal at this stage, but it's the fact that the models have shifted in the first place that I'm working with; it shows the theory is sound, even if something happens to crop up at shorter notice and make a mess of things .

I think that verificatiin stats would certainly prove the case - are there any out there? Samos.

[Summer Sun]

Happy day's high pressure coming back next week

Edited June 27, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Becoming very warm on the Ecm 12z during next week..another summery spell could be on the way with high pressure returning..good to see the ukmo 12z has been followed by this.

Edited June 27, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Cracking stuff this from ECM

Much better than the dross this week

Edited June 27, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

What a perfect finish..Ecm 12z I love you! Welcome back 564 dam

 

Edited June 27, 2017 by Frosty.

[draztik]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Cracking stuff this from ECM

Much better than the dross this week

 

In complete contrast to yesterday evening's output from the same model - showing the models are in disarray, Ensembles best guidance - and even those are proving to be somewhat erratic (beyond the usual); nothing guaranteed - yet we are headed back to heatwave conditions...if you listen to some of you.