Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Frosty.]

4 hours ago, MR EXTREMES said:

From what I'm seeing I agree with frosty. 

Although we need to see what developments we get over the weekend. 

I wouldn't say it's a true monsoon wash out pretty average. 

But plenty of summer left I'd be more inclined to think the Atlantic is not awfully active. 

 

Certainly the Ecm and Gfs 00z show plenty of, shall we say, unseasonably cool, wet and breezy / windy weather during the next few weeks..

Edited June 22, 2017 by Paul

[Karl83]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I have to be careful what I say now for fear of annoying / upsetting someone but thanks for your support.

Certainly the Ecm and Gfs 00z show plenty of shall we say, unseasonably cool, wet and breezy / windy weather during the next few weeks.

I just hope something drastic changes for the 1st July onward as I'm taking my 2 1/2 year old camping in Newquay for a week. Probably not a great location to be, judging by recent model output. Watching the 06z from behind my desk chair! 

Edited June 22, 2017 by Karl83

[snowy weather]

Some of this cooler weather wouldn't be a bad thing.  It has become impossible to sleep at night. Also working during the day. 

[Singularity]

The question these days is not whether it will turn notably unsettled, but for how long. That the GLAAM state is already trying to move away from the La Nina-like state - right in the face of what GEFS was projecting - suggests it shouldn't be for too long but we'll see. The 18z GFS yesterday looked like a nice straightforward response to this change after a typical lag time, but the 00z this morning has delayed it again and the 00z ECM presents a lengthy road to recovery as of day 10, though it is one of the more extreme possible outcomes with the longwave pattern given the amount of amplification it produces so some caution has to be applied there.

Difficult times ahead and goes to show that an ENSO-neutral background has little power to prevent the atmospheric state wandering away from it from time to time. Judging by what many longer-range models are predicting for July as a whole (strong NE'ward extensions of the Azores High by a week or two in) it seems a wander back toward neutral or even slightly El Nino-like may be expected to feature. Hopefully our patience will not be tested too much.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Im taking those washout charts with a pinch of salt. Three weeks ago the ECM and GFS were showing deep lows for this week and yet they didn't come off.

[knocker]

2 hours ago, 40*C said:

Im taking those washout charts with a pinch of salt. Three weeks ago the ECM and GFS were showing deep lows for this week and yet they didn't come off.

Firstly the only people using the word 'washout' are you and frosty.

And if you care to look closely at the ecm output for next week there are no deep lows forecast. At the beginning of the week a shallow unstable low pressure area develops affecting southern England which I have mentioned in a previous post, this moves east leaving a rather slack pressure gradient over the UK before a similar low pressure occurs again a the end of the week which in turn gives way to the Azores ridging NE. So it is perfectly justified to call next week unsettled

 

 

Edited June 22, 2017 by Paul
Not needed

[Paul]

Just deleted another bunch of posts from here. All were either about what people wanted weather wise, he said/she said type stuff, or were just totally off topic in another way. This thread is for posting about the model output, people come here to read about and discuss that subject, so can we keep it to that please. 

For the other stuff, there's the banter thread no more than a click away..

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

 

[Frosty.]

According to the Gfs 6z operational run it's a mobile pattern ahead with spells of cool trough domination separated by brief ridges of high pressure bringing some relief with pleasant sunny spells but overall it's unseasonably cool and unsettled. During the next few days the temps across the south-east look reasonable at 24c dropping to 23 and then 22c by the weekend but further north and west the temps slip into the upper teens celsius.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean looks generally much cooler and more unsettled than we have been used to recently with spells of trough domination but later on there are signs of improvement, at least across the south as the azores high starts to ridge towards southern uk.

Edited June 22, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z charts for most of next week, particularly the second half of the week look very cool and unsettled for high summer, could almost call them autumnal with chilly conditions, especially across the north..and plenty of rain and wind with low pressure (s) dominant. 

Edited June 22, 2017 by Frosty.

[Gael_Force]

Good grief!! Anybody who has been suffering from heat exhaustion; you know where to go. 

[Frosty.]

There is no improvement after next week either, the Gfs 12z shows a generally very cool and unsettled few weeks ahead.

Edited June 22, 2017 by Frosty.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z charts for most of next week, particularly the second half of the week look very cool and unsettled for high summer, could almost call them autumnal with chilly conditions, especially across the north..and plenty of rain and wind with low pressure (s) dominant. 

Arrgh! The Invasion of the Green Snot with single digit temps covering much of N. England and Scotland.  Have I slept through the summer months and it's now October?

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

There is no improvement after next week either, the Gfs 12z shows a generally very cool and unsettled few weeks ahead.

Can you define a "few weeks"? I'm going to Blackpool in a few weeks, July 25th 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Can you define a "few weeks"? I'm going to Blackpool in a few weeks, July 25th 

The duration of the Gfs 12z run..384 hours or just over 2 weeks..until the end of the first week in July.

Edited June 22, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

It's not possible to sugar coat the Ecm 12z either, it looks generally unsettled with below average temps and strong winds at times.

Edited June 22, 2017 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Vile! on this run spectators in their woolies, not what we want for day 1

[knocker]

The ecm again is not without interest this evening and differs from the gfs to some extent. Once the major low to the north has shifted east into Scandinavia by 00z Monday the next complication is a shortwave that has developed in the western Atlantic which at the same time is 400km WSW of Ireland.

This tracks rapidly east and phases with Iberian low to form a complex low pressure area over England and France by 06z Tuesday accompanied by, perhaps heavy in places, showery activity.

At this point the upper Atlantic trough is orientated south Greenland to south west of the UK which acts as conduit for the aforementioned low pressure area to be 'topped' up. as it attempts to dissipate east.Thus by 12z Wednesday a new large complex low pressure area has formed covering the southern half of Britain, France, the low countries and western Germany with much convective activity.

This duly tracks east but simultaneously amplification occurs and with the Azores ridging to the west the depression which is now over Denmark intensifies and plunges Britain in a north easterly with potential to bring some very inclement weather to the east with temps well below normal. Fortunately this is far enough ahead to just note and not something to get too excited about at the moment,

[Singularity]

With GFS projecting a powerful jet stream across the N. Atlantic (nearly 200 mph at one point, unusual for summer) but ECM shutting it off entirely, you'd think it was winter! 

Something is clearly afoot over the US early next week, something that ECM handles very differently to GFS... But I'm away from the PC this evening and can't devote enough time to examine things sufficiently at this time.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

It's not possible to sugar coat the Ecm 12z either, it looks generally unsettled with below average temps and strong winds at times.

on the plus side, fresh air, strong sun, itll not feel too bad unless theres much cloud.

[damianslaw]

The models are showing an unusually active atlantic next week, with a strong jet steamrolling across the country, mmm ominious not very good signal for the remainder of the summer.. usually takes until late August before we see such power.. 

 

[chapmanslade]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The models are showing an unusually active atlantic next week, with a strong jet steamrolling across the country, mmm ominious not very good signal for the remainder of the summer.. usually takes until late August before we see such power.. 

 

Really !

When the models were showing a deep depression over the UK for this week a couple of weeks ago and we ended up with the hottest June spell for 41 years do you really think there is much credence in what they are showing now. We all know well anything beyond 5 or 6 days on the op runs is FI so frank statements such as the above and similar from others don't demonstrate a real grasp of model watching. Yes it will be unsettled next week and cooler than of late but it isn't Armageddon, or Autumn, or the remainder of the summer written off. Arguing 'that's what the op runs show' is fair enough up to the point where you know how unreliable they are at that range.

 

[knocker]

42 minutes ago, Singularity said:

With GFS projecting a powerful jet stream across the N. Atlantic (nearly 200 mph at one point, unusual for summer) but ECM shutting it off entirely, you'd think it was winter! 

Something is clearly afoot over the US early next week, something that ECM handles very differently to GFS... But I'm away from the PC this evening and can't devote enough time to examine things sufficiently at this time.

I'm not sure I would agree that the ecm shuts the jet stream off entirely as at T144 is blowing west-east 120kts and at T174 more NW-SE 130kts as it skirts the ridging HP in the Atlantic.

Anyway a glance at this evenings Anomalies.

A pretty good agreement with overall NH pattern which is still tending to be dominated by low pressure over the Arctic with subsidiary toughs running off in all directions. The exception being a ridge in the eastern Pacific. What is of interest to us is the general area of low pressure running from Greenland south east to a trough south of the UK. This, along with the Azores pushing north in mid Atlantic veers the upper flow north west although this is very slack as one moves north. This very much supports tonight's det. runs, particularly the ecm, with systems tending to track SE to southern Britain which does make a change. This scenario also means that temps will dip below average.

In the 10-15 period some slackening vis amplitude thus a more westerly upper flow but this would portend a continuation of changeable weather although probably back to the more normal N/S split and temps back to average.

Thus the percentage play this evening is for changeable for the next 14 days but as always the detail that unfolds down to the det. runs

Edited June 22, 2017 by knocker

[I remember Atlantic 252]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not sure there are any pluses from the 12z runs, it looks like there would be a lot of cloud, wind and rain with low pressure (s) in charge and generally below average temps.

can tell it's not winter me mentioning record cold! but chances of coldest ever start to July? certainly date records, min, or lowest max in certain spots

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

can tell it's not winter me mentioning record cold! but chances of coldest ever start to July? certainly date records, min, or lowest max in certain spots

Yeah it's looking, dare I say it, autumnal next week.