Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Ice Man 85]

3 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Hmm, tbh I'm a bit lost... Nothing to grumble about today or tomorrow

But normal service looks like resuming on Wednesday...

I'd take those temps over mine any day of the week.

[Jezzer]

2 hours ago, 40*C said:

Just a thought, if we can reach 30C or more until Thursday would that be the longest run of 30C days since August 2003?

Met Office just tweeted: "This hot spell is set to be the first time for over 20 years that somewhere in the UK has reached over 30 °C for 5 consecutive days in June"

Will be interesting to see how details are firmed up for later this week into the weekend, whatever happens this has been a memorable hot spell.

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, Jezzer said:

Met Office just tweeted: "This hot spell is set to be the first time for over 20 years that somewhere in the UK has reached over 30 °C for 5 consecutive days in June"

Will be interesting to see how details are firmed up for later this week into the weekend, whatever happens this has been a memorable hot spell.

Memorable? Its something I'd rather forget.

[Gordon Webb]

Just now, Ice Man 85 said:

Memorable? Its something I'd rather forget.

Yep I'm also finding it uncomfortable but hopefully after Wednesday we'll be back into more firendly territory temperature wise

[SilverWolf]

4 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Memorable? Its something I'd rather forget.

Sorry to be a hypocrite, I rarely post in here as I've little to add, but do you have links to any charts or models to expand on your last 2 posts, or interpretations to make them relevant to this thread? Thanks 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

25 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Memorable? Its something I'd rather forget.

Six days of 30°C or more will be memorable as far as extremes are concerned. Bear In mind its still Astronomical spring

[Gordon Webb]

2 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Six days of 30°C or more will be memorable as far as extremes are concerned. Bear In mind its still Astronomical spring

yep from Wednesday astronomical summer is here and of course druids pagan festivals oh and of course the days start to draw in as well

[Ice Man 85]

58 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Sorry to be a hypocrite, I rarely post in here as I've little to add, but do you have links to any charts or models to expand on your last 2 posts, or interpretations to make them relevant to this thread? Thanks 

The 1st post was in response to a chart. And where was the chart for the comment my 2nd post was directed to, hmm?

[Summer Sun]

The Bristol area could be scorching on Wednesday recording breaking heat not too far off 100F either

[Craig84]

Hi everyone. Just thought I'd throw a quick question out there if I may.

With the Arpege model predicting high temps in my area (Bristol) for the next couple of days, I was wondering if there was an official weather station in urban Bristol? Filton is the closest one that I'm aware of but it's annoying central Bristol doesn't seem to have one and all the other major cities have.

 

Thanks in advance!

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Gordon Webb said:

yep from Wednesday astronomical summer is here and of course druids pagan festivals oh and of course the days start to draw in as well

oh yes i forgot, we are still officially in spring! well someone better tell the models that because its certainly summer now!

interesting about the first time since '95 we have had 5 consecutive days of 30c, it bodes well for the rest of summer (unless you dont like heat).

[Man With Beard]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The Bristol area could be scorching on Wednesday recording breaking heat not too far off 100F either

It's gone seriously crackers, 33s in all kinds of weird places like Exeter and Liverpool!

There's a 10C difference between GFS and ARGEPE for some spots. Normally I'd back the ARGEPE every day of the week but this does seem a little nuts!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

oh yes i forgot, we are still officially in spring! well someone better tell the models that because its certainly summer now!

interesting about the first time since '95 we have had 5 consecutive days of 30c, it bodes well for the rest of summer (unless you dont like heat).

does it? not necessarily, read on here from people JH etc, that June's weather has absolutely no effect on rest of summer

[mb018538]

For those of a nervous disposition.....the dartboard low at 240 has now appeared on the 6z and 12z. Needs watching!

[Gordon Webb]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

For those of a nervous disposition.....the dartboard low at 240 has now appeared on the 6z and 12z. Needs watching!

what does dartboard low refer too if I may ask

[Captain Shortwave]

27 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It's gone seriously crackers, 33s in all kinds of weird places like Exeter and Liverpool!

There's a 10C difference between GFS and ARGEPE for some spots. Normally I'd back the ARGEPE every day of the week but this does seem a little nuts!!

It really depends on how far south the cooler air reaches tomorrow and how intense the plume is when it reaches us.

Arpege has the 20C isotherm pushing into south west England with the 16C isotherm covering central/southern England, that would normally give 32/33C but we will be coming in off the back of several hot days so a real chance of pushing the mid-thirties, possibly quite widely. So is the arpege correct on the level of heat?

GFS

Pretty much two degrees lower, it give a high of 30C over London, actually when you think about it, that could translate to something like 34C given the model's tendency to underestimate temperature.

So UKMO/GEM

   

UKMO not so progressive with the heat but a similar idea, the GEM is a little further east but gets the 20C isotherm into the south and the 18C line covering southern England.

I would go for something around the 34C mark, but I wouldn't rule out something higher like the arpege suggests. Very uncertain though on this I must add.

Edited June 19, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

what does dartboard low refer too if I may ask

I assume this Gordon

[Scorcher]

A very interesting chart for Wednesday afternoon, could be some very high temperatures all the way up to NW England- these uppers aren't far off what was being shown for Thursday a couple of days ago when everyone got very excited. 30C+ could well be possible anywhere south of that 15C isotherm line I imagine.

Certainly for Wednesday the highest temperatures look like being in western England, particularly the Bristol area but there could be some local June records broken further north as well. 

[Gordon Webb]

15 minutes ago, knocker said:

I assume this Gordon

thanks and I think that would make interesting weather

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

thanks and I think that would make interesting weather

In autumn..more heat please!

32.5c 91f reached today! Another hot one in the south tomorrow and then wed/thurs too...phew

Edited June 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

GEM has the hottest temps at 33c

[Man With Beard]

ECM close to ARPEGE for Wednesday

For the weekend, most want to whip the low across the north except ... the GFS. You know my moto: "Never discount the GFS!!"

  

Am I allowed to say that, if it was February, the GFS would be the clear favourite??  

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

does it? not necessarily, read on here from people JH etc, that June's weather has absolutely no effect on rest of summer

well its not a hard fast rule, thats true, but most times we have a hot spell or two in june  its because the long wave pattern is likely to repeat. i havnt the data, but out of memory i can remember very few summers with 'early' hot spells are the only ones we get... 1970 and 1978 are two. 76, 95, 03, 06 are top of my head examples of those that do go on to produce further hot spells. so id suggest more heat is more likely then no more heat.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z charts for Wednesday are just magnificent if you are loving this superb spell of summery weather.

[Summer Sun]

It might not take long for high pressure to rebuild as long as pressure remains low up north we have a good chance anything unsettled will just be a blip