Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Summer Sun]

It looks like the hottest air will be starting to move away during Friday

This then takes us into a fresher weekend

[mb018538]

Starting to turn much more unsettled through the weekend. Not much rainfall to start with, but the ensembles paint a much more typical sunshine and showers pattern into next week:



On the face of it, the Northern Hemisphere pressure profile doesn't look too bad:



No northern blocking forecast to materialise on the ECM, so hopefully the unsettled phase won't last too long, and pressure can rebuild into July.

[Gordon Webb]

32 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

It looks like the hottest air will be starting to move away during Friday

This then takes us into a fresher weekend

the first chart means that thursday is the changeover day temp wise for most with possibly the SE been the exception if i'm reading the chart correctly , still that's a good 10 days of nice weather if admittledly a little too hot for me

Edited June 19, 2017 by Gordon Webb
Spelling Mistakes

[Frosty.]

Plenty of hot sunny weather to enjoy this week, especially further south according to the Ecm 00z..superb weather!

Edited June 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Starting to turn much more unsettled through the weekend. Not much rainfall to start with, but the ensembles paint a much more typical sunshine and showers pattern into next week:



On the face of it, the Northern Hemisphere pressure profile doesn't look too bad:



No northern blocking forecast to materialise on the ECM, so hopefully the unsettled phase won't last too long, and pressure can rebuild into July.

The ensembles confirm Wednesday now looking like the peak of the heat, and I wouldn't discount 33C, 34C or 35C on that day.

A second wave of heat next week not completely off the table but looking less likely today.

[summer blizzard]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Starting to turn much more unsettled through the weekend. Not much rainfall to start with, but the ensembles paint a much more typical sunshine and showers pattern into next week:



On the face of it, the Northern Hemisphere pressure profile doesn't look too bad:



No northern blocking forecast to materialise on the ECM, so hopefully the unsettled phase won't last too long, and pressure can rebuild into July.

Euro ensembles develop enhanced easterlies across the eastern Pacific so what we are likely seeing is that feeding into a Nina like response. It's possibly in response to enhanced vorcity and lower than average pressure over the Atlantic.

Whether that is correct or lasts long is unknown. 

[Gordon Webb]

1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro ensembles develop enhanced easterlies across the eastern Pacific so what we are likely seeing is that feeding into a Nina like response. It's possibly in response to enhanced vorcity and lower than average pressure over the Atlantic.

Whether that is correct or lasts long is unknown. 

what does that mean for us dummies ie - ME

[summer blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

what does that mean for us dummies ie - ME

So right now we are ENSO neutral and will probably stay that way (no El Nino or La Nina events) however from time to time the atmosphere sets up a Pacific pattern that resembles one of them. Just as our current spell is likely the result of enhanced westerlies observed over the Pacific in early June, we are now seeing that the opposite is forecast to occur. The effect for us is that it may promote a response more consistent with La Nina during early July (generally but not always, bad). 

[Gordon Webb]

2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

So right now we are ENSO neutral and will probably stay that way (no El Nino or La Nina events) however from time to time the atmosphere sets up a Pacific pattern that resembles one of them. Just as our current spell is likely the result of enhanced westerlies observed over the Pacific in early June, we are now seeing that the opposite is forecast to occur. The effect for us is that it may promote a response more consistent with La Nina during early July (generally but not always, bad). 

ok cheers

[Frosty.]

South-east England is likely to reach 33c 91f this afternoon..fantastic,wonderful spell!

Edited June 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

South-east England is likely to reach 33c 91f this afternoon..fantastic,wonderful spell!

Wonderful eh

Nice to see our old friend GFS forecasting 28c for London today at T0-12, going to be 4-5c wrong again!

[Frosty.]

Yes it's wonderful, could call it Mediterranean!  Great looking models for this working week with plenty of very warm / hot and humid sunny weather with a risk of an isolated thunderstorm today, a higher risk of catching one tomorrow across southern uk but still well scattered so many places will stay dry and sunny..perfick weather.

Edited June 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[Gordon Webb]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes it's wonderful, could call it Mediterranean!  Great looking models for this working week with plenty of hot and humid sunny weather with a risk of an isolated thunderstorm today, a bigger risk of catching one tomorrow across southern uk.

well thankfully tomorrow It'll be a slight respite as the heat temporarily retreats southwards the has it's hurrah on wednesday

Edited June 19, 2017 by Gordon Webb

[Nouska]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Wonderful eh

Nice to see our old friend GFS forecasting 28c for London today at T0-12, going to be 4-5c wrong again!

AROME has a little patch of 33C NNE of London - you might be right in your assumption.

Fun to see what the model anticipates for tomorrow in sim-sat IR format.

 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Yes it's wonderful, could call it Mediterranean!  Great looking models for this working week with plenty of very warm / hot and humid sunny weather with a risk of an isolated thunderstorm today, a higher risk of catching one tomorrow across southern uk but still well scattered so many places will stay dry and sunny..perfick weather.

 Lubbly jubbly it's beautiful. 

I wouldn't read to much into the change over to cooler conditions. 

Its very likely we will see the heat Return 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

 Lubbly jubbly it's beautiful. 

I wouldn't read to much into the change over to cooler conditions. 

Its very likely we will see the heat Return 

Yes it's beautiful, very good to see France isn't hogging all the heat!

[Man With Beard]

Argepe now going for 35C around the Bristol area on Wednesday, and quite a large area in the 32C zone. In fact when you zoom in on Meteociel, it gives localised maximums of 36C. 

  

Bear in mind this is no mickey-mouse model - its forecasts for maximums today and yesterday very close to the mark, even slightly under.

[mountain shadow]

Enjoy the heat this week, as the models are agreed across the board for a more unsettled and cooler weather type from the weekend and through next week as the upper trough becomes dominant.

The gardens will be needing it though.

[Frosty.]

Cor Blimey, almost 30c already across the s / se..33c is definitely on! Looking ahead, another scorcher in the south tomorrow with 30c highly likely and then hotter still on wed / thurs.

[Summer Sun]

The 1976 record will be gone if this is right

 

Edited June 19, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

The 1976 record will be gone if this is right

 

If there's reporting station in the right place, though.

[knocker]

I've tried to think of another way of saying it's going to be hot in parts of England over the next couple of days but my limited vocabulary failed me. So I've settled for the EPS is looking to bring joy to many

Edited June 19, 2017 by knocker

[MattTarrant]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

If there's reporting station in the right place, though.

There is recording station at Filton which is around there, however, may be more in the 33/34 region

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Just a thought, if we can reach 30C or more until Thursday would that be the longest run of 30C days since August 2003?

[DR(S)NO]

5 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Yes it's wonderful, could call it Mediterranean!  Great looking models for this working week with plenty of very warm / hot and humid sunny weather with a risk of an isolated thunderstorm today, a higher risk of catching one tomorrow across southern uk but still well scattered so many places will stay dry and sunny..perfick weather.

Hmm, tbh I'm a bit lost... Nothing to grumble about today or tomorrow

But normal service looks like resuming on Wednesday...