Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All , Proper British Summer for South East Britain, in the next five days , feeling muggy, oppressive , sultry and at times hot, but the models do Hint of a change about mid week, will we see a breakdown to cooler fresher weather from some juicy thunderstorms ....Heres Hoping

[TJS1998Tom]

18z

Some nice amounts of Cape for Monday and especially Friday

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The gfs 00z is out of this world for the south if heat is what you like. 

Not seen uppers that high stay over the UK for such a long time. A rare thing 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Surrey, Next Thursday could touch 30c in some parts of the South, Some very nice Summer charts on offer this morning.

Edited June 17, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

The gfs continues to paint a rosier picture next week than last night's ecm. Mainly due to the treatment of the Atlantic trough which the gfs disrupts and by Thursday has the cut off upper low west of Iberia and thus initiating further WAA. This also has the knock on affect of delaying the main trough impacting the UK until after the weekend although this is further complicated by an unstable low tracking north from France. This remains purely academic at the moment until there is better agreement with ecm

So a quick resume. The current high cell slips away east and by Tuesday another has formed, the consequence of further ridging from the Azores. But this is already in the process of being displaced by the Atlantic trough edging east thus initiating an ESE flow over England which will veer into a southerly drift over the next couple of days and in fact create a very slack pressure area. We then have the somewhat complex struugle between the Azores, the Atlantic trough and the unstable low drifting north.

For what it's worth a quick look at the temps Tuesday-Thursday

Tuesday; Warmest temps south of a line Bristol to Norwich 26-27C but much cooler further north with 17-19C widespread and 13C in NE Scotland

Wednesday: The warmer temps south of a line Bristol to Kent and in the 26-27C range and 20-23C elsewhere

Thursday: by far far the hottest day with widespread temps 27-30C SE of a line Newcastle to Cardiff. In NI and Scotland 18-23C

And throwing in Friday 26-28C SE of a line Dorset to the Wash

Pretty dry apart from maybe some light showery stuff around Thursday so all in all a pretty good week with the major caveat the end of next week is a long way from a done deal.

Edited June 17, 2017 by knocker

[drm]

13 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes Surrey, Next Thursday could touch 30c in some parts of the South, Some very nice Summer charts on offer this morning.

Certainly an improvement on yesterdays gfs output for lovers of heat.lets hope the ecm follows it as yesterday evenings run was almost autumnal by the end.certainly a few issues to sort out before we get a clearer picture ahead take care in the heat and humidity over the next few days .

Edited June 17, 2017 by drm

[knocker]

The ecm continues to disagree with the gfs for the end of next week. It does disrupt the trough but makes much more of the subsequent development of the upper trough to the NW which it sweeps ESE into northern Scotland Saturday morning introducing a NW flow and cooler conditions over the UK. But it does have a swan song. WAA initiated by the aforementioned disruption brings widespread heat to England on Thursday with temps in the 29-30C range so locally 32C not out of the question. But this is six days away

Off down for a visit to the Maritime Museum. Toodle pip.

Edited June 17, 2017 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

So that's now 2 runs in a row from GFS which goes for further heat later next week hopefully it's on the right track

Given the heat which is building in Southern Europe this year, I'm beginning to wonder if we could get our 1st 100f day since 2003 at some point this summer

[Man With Beard]

The ECM Vs UKMO/GFS/GEM differences continue, with the ECM pushing through the Atlantic low next weekend and the others holding it away from most.

I imagine we'll end up with a middle ground, with northern areas less settled though still with decent spells, but southern areas still in the warm air, though at risk of frontal activity at times - so possibly the traditional thunderstorm at Glastonbury. 

Thursday/Friday may have a chance of getting up to 34C in the SE in optimum conditions, but a good chance of cloud/thundery formations being mixed in, so around 30C ish will be a reasonable benchmark for now. All IMO of course

Edited June 17, 2017 by Man With Beard

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens this morning

      

Not so much emphasis on a trough developing near the UK, more a typical changeable westerly pattern. GEFs broadly similar so by next weekend back to near normal conditionsbut nothing too bad.

Before then, how hot could the end of the week get? The 12c never pushes away line from the Wash to the north coast of Wales, so surface flow dependent the temperatures could remain in the high twenties in the south. So when we see the next wave of heat which looks quite potent, we could seetemperatures hitting the low nineties in fahrenheit by Thursday or Friday depending on cloud cover and the speed of the breakdown. So for the south a fairly prolonged spell of very warm to hot weather with the risk of thunderstorms from tomorrow onwards as well. Further north, just fleeting glimspes of this heat this time unfortunately, though teperatures will still be respectable in any sunnier spells.

[Frosty.]

It's a dream weekend weatherwise..this is what I hope for in summer.

[bluearmy]

13 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Seems there is no escape from the upper trough getting into nw Europe in the 7/10 day timeframe. Would seem unlikely that we will manage to avoid it this time. 

Stating to see the models begin to backtrack a little. Needs to be further backtrack NNW on the spreads to allow for the upper trough not to make it across the whole country bringing temps back to normal or a little below, even in the south.  

[mb018538]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

So that's now 2 runs in a row from GFS which goes for further heat later next week hopefully it's on the right track

Given the heat which is building in Southern Europe this year, I'm beginning to wonder if we could get our 1st 100f day since 2003 at some point this summer

Looking good for sure. What about that 22/23c?  Seriously though, it's a very good spell of weather we are getting now. Summer 2017 starting on a high.

[Summer Sun]

I like this trend from GFS... I like it a lot

 

[sparky1972]

what has happened, after reading posts here about heat and nice sunshine, forecasts saying hot and sunny,  what we actually have is cloud laden skies, temps starting to ease back, will hold off on the BBQ till tomorrow, lol

[Frosty.]

What amazing weather!

Plenty more heat and sunshine to come on sun / mon then briefly a bit fresher but still very warm before another surge of hot and humid air spreads north through the second half of next week, perhaps very hot in the south for a time with temps into the low 30's celsius but expect thunderstorms to become more likely. Looking ahead to july still indicates a generally continental / Azores high pattern rather than cooler atlantic / oceanic. 

[Matthew.]

2 hours ago, sparky1972 said:

what has happened, after reading posts here about heat and nice sunshine, forecasts saying hot and sunny,  what we actually have is cloud laden skies, temps starting to ease back, will hold off on the BBQ till tomorrow, lol

One of the unfortunate/fortunate few I heard some in the Se have a bit of cloud too. Tomorrow looks sunnier nationwide.

[Summer Sun]

GFS has underestimated today's high by around 4 or 5c in Middlesex

Actual high 30.1c in Teddington Bushy Park, Middlesex

Edited June 17, 2017 by Summer Sun

[stainesbloke]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS has underestimated today's high by around 4 or 5c in Middlesex

Actual high 30.1c in Teddington Bushy Park, Middlesex

Yep, happens regularly. 29C here near Heathrow.

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yep, happens regularly. 29C here near Heathrow.

Parts of the south-east could hit 32c 90f tomorrow and maybe a notch higher on Monday as the Gfs continues to underestimate maxima.

[Matthew.]

The UKMO keeps pressure on the higher side therefore the warmth holds on

[Summer Sun]

The heat returns on Thursday for the 4th run in a row

[The PIT]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The heat returns on Thursday for the 4th run in a row

Luckily it soon gets pushed away again with temperatures drifting back to nice levels of the lower 20's which is perfect. However one does get the feeling this may change.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Summer 1976 said:

The UKMO keeps pressure on the higher side therefore the warmth holds on

Yes signs of a backtrack with the quick breakdown after Thursday looking less likely judging by today's output. ECM 12z will be crucial later on this evening. More twists and turns to come but let's hope we can get another hot and sunny weekend out of this fine spell  

[mb018538]

One word for the UKMO run - WOW!

Very warm/hot out to Friday now (perhaps). Breakdown being edged back??