Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[mushymanrob]

ill use the charts the current gfs and ecm predict at day 8, roughly midway between what the  noaa anomaly chart 6-10 day suggest, for comparison.

both the gfs and ecm suggest high pressure sitting over us or just to our north. the anomaly chart to my eyes looks to me like this high will be a little further south, so perhaps not the chillier gfs version?. the upper flow is steadily westerly, so any easterly on the surface will be brief. both models though havnt got the azores low the anomaly chart predicts, and id read into that that we are more likely to get southerly sourced air pumping up off biscay/western france. so warmer/hot, humid and thundery.

 

[mushymanrob]

comparing the current ops at day 10 with the noaa chart at day (11) actually (mid point 8-14).  we are expected to lose the high over us/just to our south, the azores mean upper trough is still there though, with possibly some ridging to our west. to me, its looking like the ecm will be closer to reality, but is possibly holding on the the high pressure a bit longer. so heat, humidity, and a thundery breakdown looks likely c day 9, 22nd. what the anomaly chart does allow for is the current gfs at day 10, with a strong atlantic ridge and deep low just west of our north.

so overall, a pretty promising outlook it you want heat.. and i must say its looking like being the best june for (widespread) heat for many years for june.

good!

 

[Gael_Force]

26 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

both models though havnt got the azores low the anomaly chart predicts, and id read into that that we are more likely to get southerly sourced air pumping up off biscay/western france. so warmer/hot, humid and thundery.

If you look at both the ECM and GFS in anomaly format, they both have an Azores 500mb negative anomaly. It's there for 3 out 4 weeks on latest EC ... either extending from Greenland to the tropics or sometimes as a cut off low.

[Snowyowl9]

Mushy has made my mind up and the GFS 6z is also far better.

 

[mb018538]

Yes, the NOAA anomaly charts have human input too, so I think they appear to be favouring the ECM style outcome over the GFS here. Either way, one of the models will have egg on face!

[Nick F]

Fascinatingly large differences between 00z ECMWF and GFS high res and ensemble means for 7-8 days' time (middle of next week), though the 06z GFS high res seems to be coming more round to the 00z EC idea with amplifying an intact trough just west of the UK, though not quite there with the hot plume spreading north across the UK later next week like the EC.

Have talked more about the GFS vs EC debacle for next week in my blog for Netweather below:

 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Worth noting that this mornings GFS is showing potential for some northern areas seeing temps close to freezing around the summer solstice.

Whilst I much prefer the GFS outcome I will by no means dismiss the ECM output which is somewhat warmer for next week.

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

I will by no means dismiss the ECM output which is somewhat warmer for next week.

 

Somewhat warmer Ecm next week is an understatement, the Ecm is a scorcher next week, especially further south..fingers crossed!

Edited June 13, 2017 by Frosty.

[MattTarrant]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Somewhat warmer Ecm next week is an understatement, the Ecm is a scorcher next week, especially further south..fingers crossed!

As Nick F mentioned in his excellent blog, the GFS 6z run was showing signs of following the ECM. In short its not quite as keen on the retrogression of the high, however, given ECM and some lukewarm support from the Met Office I am somewhat wary of the GFS.

[johnholmes]

Yes Nick, uncertainty for sure.

Just using the 500 mb anomaly charts, EC and NOAA both suggest the warmer alternative so I, currently, would go with the idea of a 500 mb flow from south of west rather than the GFS version.

links as usual below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Summer Sun]

I don't know what NAVGEM is on but I highly doubt we'll get anywhere near those values

[Frosty.]

26 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Yes Nick, uncertainty for sure.

Just using the 500 mb anomaly charts, EC and NOAA both suggest the warmer alternative so I, currently, would go with the idea of a 500 mb flow from south of west rather than the GFS version.

links as usual below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

There are some warm / very warm GEFS 6z members for next week..hopefully support will keep growing and we will see a good spell of flaming june weather..really hope scotland and n.ireland will see summer start soon too as they are currently missing out.

Edited June 13, 2017 by Frosty.

[SizzlingHeat]

The GFS 6z shows a fantastic weekend for most of the country, particularly Midlands southwards with extensive sunshine and temps between 24 and 27 degrees on Saturday with values between 27 and 30 degrees Sunday. Monday, still warm in the south with 25 or 26 degrees and has a much less cool scenario than previous gfs runs with temps in the low 20s in south at the very least. Looking good.

[SizzlingHeat]

12z currently showing a slightly more amplified jet by Friday evening, very slight adjustments but would result in a more ecm bias if it continues this output. Looks better than 6z even at this early stage. 

The 12z jet aligned more sw to ne rather than west to east which is better for the overall evolution

Edited June 13, 2017 by SizzlingHeat

[mushymanrob]

5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

comparing the current ops at day 10 with the noaa chart at day (11) actually (mid point 8-14).  we are expected to lose the high over us/just to our south, the azores mean upper trough is still there though, with possibly some ridging to our west. to me, its looking like the ecm will be closer to reality, but is possibly holding on the the high pressure a bit longer. so heat, humidity, and a thundery breakdown looks likely c day 9, 22nd. what the anomaly chart doesnt allow for is the current gfs at day 10, with a strong atlantic ridge and deep low just west of our north.

so overall, a pretty promising outlook it you want heat.. and i must say its looking like being the best june for (widespread) heat for many years for june.

good!

 

OOOPSIE...... CORRECTED MY ERROR ..... my bad..... (doesnt in bold)

Edited June 13, 2017 by mushymanrob

[SizzlingHeat]

Well it was looking better early on but has kept its retrogression after all. Shame 

[Scorcher]

I have no idea what is going on with the GFS. It refuses to back down with only small adjustments from the 06z.

The great news is the UKMO looks a lot closer to the earlier ECM run- the Sunday chart is absolutely stunning and there would be plenty of heat around on Monday too.

[mb018538]

UKMO is great tonight.....GFS refusing to budge from its cooler scenario. Looks like the big ECM and UKMO boys are ganging up on poor little GFS!

[knocker]

The gfs is still continuing with the energy zipping out of N. Canada enforcing the eastward travel of the upper troughs (cooler air) which are in turn suppressing any substantial development of northward ridging and thus no chance of WAA from the south. For this it needs the trough traveling east to be forced south in mid Atlantic which would promote high pressure in the vacinity of the UK and a backing upper flow facilitating the aforementioned WAA. It's not actually a huge adjustment so it will be interesting to see whether the ecm continues to promote this or perhaps make a little nod in the direction of the gfs.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

This might sound like I want heat and a hope cast, but the GFS on the reliable timeframe has corrected itself slowly towards the ECM I feel. But after around 180 hours out, it still seems obsessed with retrogressing that high back out. Now, with a positive tilt of the high now looking likely, I've rarely seen a high pulled back out westwards from that scenario with a SW-NE jet, unlike April 2012 which was a flat to negatively tilted jet, and therefore retrogression happened in a textbook style. I think this could be similar to July 2013 where we see the high parked over us for some time before gradually shifting eastwards. That would lie between the blowtorch ECM/GEM/NAVGEM and the stubborn GFS

[bluearmy]

Interesting trends from the ops whereby we see an escape north of an Iberian low up our western side  in a fashion not too dissimilar to a few weeks ago. As I recall, this was initially modelled to our west but got corrected further east as time went on and verified up the west side of the uk. 

Some of us go on about repeating patterns and this ever growing solution is typical of that. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Model battle still on, 

GEM, 30°

UKMO, 30°

GFS, 16°, better though I think than 06Z

[Frosty.]

With all the focus on the weekend warmth and next weeks potential scorcher, we have a very warm and mainly sunny day to look forward to tomorrow across the southern half of the uk with temperatures across England and Wales widely between 24-27c, the warmest across the south-east where 28 maybe 29c is possible. 

Edited June 13, 2017 by Frosty.

[DTHFCJ]

14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

With all the focus on the weekend warmth and next weeks potential scorcher, we have a very warm and mainly sunny day to look forward to tomorrow across the southern half of the uk with temperatures across England and Wales widely between 24-27c, the warmest across the south-east where 28 maybe 29c is possible. 

agree Frosty looking lovely for some pity its not all..

London looks very nice next week too...wish id never moved!

 

Edited June 13, 2017 by DTHFCJ

[TJS1998Tom]

12z still looks promising for some hot weather at the end of the month with temps up to 28