Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Scorcher]

45 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

6z flips back to the cooler solution, this is still a long way from being sorted out! Sounds like winter mode....more runs needed!

The 06z has had a habit of showing the extreme retrogression scenarios over the last few days though. Not to be trusted at the moment I don't think. There is still uncertainty in the air unfortunately though. If that run came off conditions would be very disappointing for June.

[blizzard81]

16 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The 06z has had a habit of showing the extreme retrogression scenarios over the last few days though. Not to be trusted at the moment I don't think. There is still uncertainty in the air unfortunately though. If that run came off conditions would be very disappointing for June.

I agree. Over the years I have found the GFS 06z run to be the least reliable run. Let's hope the 12z runs go some way to cementing a decent weekend for most of the UK. 

[Frosty.]

The models are pointing towards a typical summer north / south or north-west / south-east split for the next few weeks with the best weather generally further southeast and the lions share of the cooler and unsettled conditions across the northwest of the uk but occasionally making inroads further s / e..plenty of warmth and sunshine in the favoured areas. 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

NAVGEM is scary at the end of the run, possibility of 38C in the SE. 

 

Slight improvement with the ECM joining the GEM's ideas later in the run, but Scotland never really joins in. Still all to play for but Jesus I hope the upgrades keep coming.

[mushymanrob]

i wouldnt take too much notice of the gfs tbh, the consistent anomaly charts refuse to allow the deep trough to our near northeast/east. id be shocked if the gfs has a better handle on this then the anomaly charts.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

NAVGEM is scary at the end of the run, possibility of 38C in the SE. 

 

Slight improvement with the ECM joining the GEM's ideas later in the run, but Scotland never really joins in. Still all to play for but Jesus I hope the upgrades keep coming.

it does, but that's 00Z, it's updating, upto 144 on meteociel, GFS though is pants, 15° on Monday

[mb018538]

29 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i wouldnt take too much notice of the gfs tbh, the consistent anomaly charts refuse to allow the deep trough to our near northeast/east. id be shocked if the gfs has a better handle on this then the anomaly charts.

That chart is a day out of date though, so equally may not be of too much value!

[knocker]

Moving it on slightly today's GEFs is not a million miles away from NOAA.

[A Frayed Knot]

High Pressure Building itself again for the weekend especially Sunday for southern areas .

[mb018538]

ECM is very good again tonight, probably the pick of the crop. Turning very warm/hot as the weekend goes on.

[Frosty.]

Superb looking Ecm 12z by the weekend, becoming very warm or hot..BBQ anyone?

Edited June 12, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Looking into next week, the Ecm 12z remains very summery with high temperatures..I would bank this run without a moment's hesitation!

Turns into a sizzler for the south in particular.

Edited June 12, 2017 by Frosty.

[SizzlingHeat]

How can the gfs and ecm be so vastly different in a relatively short time frame. Lets hope the ecm wins out 

[blizzard81]

If the ecm is correct I expect big upgrades on the BBC forecast temps for this weekend. 

[SizzlingHeat]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

If the ecm is correct I expect big upgrades on the BBC forecast temps for this weekend. 

Temps likely mid high twenties if ecm came off. Lets hope its right 

[Frosty.]

Just now, SizzlingHeat said:

Temps likely mid high twenties if ecm came off. Lets hope its right 

More like low 30's celsius for the south at times..epic Ecm run for heat lovers, especially in the south.

[SizzlingHeat]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

More like low 30's celsius for the south at times..epic Ecm run for heat lovers, especially in the south.

Depends on cloud amounts which may be variable but still very warm nonetheless. Still, the gfs says no so who will win out?

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, A Frayed Knot said:

High Pressure Building itself again for the weekend especially Sunday for southern areas .

Give me something for as far North as Manchester/Leeds please then I may be able to share your excitement.

Its all so SE Biased lately!

Edited June 12, 2017 by 40*C

[Ice Man 85]

The ECM predicted a warm run at the start of May and you got your eye wiped. You do realise that with the humidity it'd feel like mid 30s in the south and likely 29 at least in the NW. You must be either unemployed or retired i.e. nothing better to do than sun bathe if you're looking forward to that.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is certainly great eye candy and the timeframe is close enough to raise hopes it could actually happen..fingers crossed!

[blizzard81]

17 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Give me something for as far North as Manchester/Leeds please then I may be able to share your excitement.

Its all so SE Biased lately!

Tonight's ecm is not just a southern heat affair though. You will be baking as well. 

[Scorcher]

23 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

The ECM predicted a warm run at the start of May and you got your eye wiped. You do realise that with the humidity it'd feel like mid 30s in the south and likely 29 at least in the NW. You must be either unemployed or retired i.e. nothing better to do than sun bathe if you're looking forward to that.

Don't be silly, it's not an issue for most people if it happens at the weekend! Some people actually enjoy the heat- a couple of days of it isn't going to cause problems.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All, A trend for very warm conditions especially for southeast Britain as we move through this week. Always the risk of thunderstorms for the warmest areas but certainly a dry trend for southern Britain for at least 10 days..Moving into the 10 day period , it looks as though it will be turning cooler although still little rain for south east Britain. I must add that there really is tremendous uncertainty in the 10 days ahead ,and Ive seen so many changes from day to day, so at the moment a warming up trend ,then a cooling trend..... That's briefly what the op models from ecm and gfs show tonight. As they say Tomorrow is a new day

[Ice Man 85]

20 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Don't be silly, it's not an issue for most people if it happens at the weekend! Some people actually enjoy the heat- a couple of days of it isn't going to cause problems.

Not everyone has the weekends off. I do shifts. As for "problems" I'm speaking purely for my own tolerance for heat which ends at 23c. I'm not a complete mope; I'd take settled and sunny any day of the week over the rain and winds seen over the last few days. But as for what the ECM is showing, I have to say I'd look forward more to being executed than sweating in heat like that.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Not everyone has the weekends off. I do shifts. As for "problems" I'm speaking purely for my own tolerance for heat which ends at 23c. I'm not a complete mope; I'd take settled and sunny any day of the week over the rain and winds seen over the last few days. But as for what the ECM is showing, I have to say I'd look forward more to being executed than sweating in heat like that.

Maybe you should be in the moaning thread?