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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, DTHFCJ said:

Have a great holiday,im off to greece in august to escape the british summer weather tbh...anyway looking pleasant and dry,in the southeast at least...

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Indeed there is some fine warm weather at times next week for the south of the uk before the major anticyclone builds in..looking very good to me. :- )

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: south wales uk
  • Weather Preferences: hot and sunny
  • Location: south wales uk
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, and there is some fine warm weather at times for the south before the major anricyclone builds in..looking very good to me.

agree Frosty/Karl, lets hope that high pressure makes it later on in the week so everyone...(well more or less) joins in:)

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, and there is some fine warm weather at times for the south before the major anricyclone builds in..looking very good to me.

Don't know why Sizzle is moaning given he's in Dorset which looks predominantly dry next week and increasingly warm as high pressure begins to nose in proper by Thurs/Fri (not Saturday).

Taken in isolation it is disappointing to see a slight delay in the establishment of high pressure next week, but when you factor in the week we've just had, whichever way you look at it next week is better, with a ridge giving settled conditions for most on Monday, rain risk further north and west Tuesday with a ridge again Wednesday with showers further north Weds/Thurs. Friday and the weekend increasingly dry and warm for all.

I guess some are just glass half empty people? Or throw glass at wall in a fit of rage people? ;):D

Plenty to be positive about :)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Don't know why Sizzle is moaning given he's in Dorset which looks predominantly dry next week and increasingly warm as high pressure begins to nose in proper by Thurs/Fri (not Saturday).

Taken in isolation it is disappointing to see a slight delay in the establishment of high pressure next week, but when you factor in the week we've just had, whichever way you look at it next week is better, with a ridge giving settled conditions for most on Monday, rain risk further north and west Tuesday with a ridge again Wednesday with showers further north Weds/Thurs. Friday and the weekend increasingly dry and warm for all.

I guess some are just glass half empty people? Or throw glass at wall in a fit of rage people? ;):D

Plenty to be positive about :)

I think the high will be worth waiting for, in the meantime it doesn't look too bad, some fine and warm weather to enjoy before the main event!:D

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Rukm1441.gif Rtavn1441.gif Rgem1441.gif

We have good agreement now on the flatter outcome for mid-next week (pending the delayed ECM 12z), but this is in fact a case of 'lose a little, win a little' because the flatter jet encourages a strong north-eastward ridging of the Azores High by the weekend while also propelling a lot of warm air in our direction to accompany it.

At that point the surface conditions will depend heavily on the position and shape of the high pressure. The GFS 12z opts for a very round area of HP that becomes just off the coast of N. Ireland by Sunday, with warm air aloft but a relatively cool surface flow off the N. Sea affecting many eastern parts - though I believe the impact is overdone by the model, and temps should be higher than the mostly low-20s being shown for western parts. The GEM 12z on the other hand has the high stretched right across from the SW as it maintains more of a classic extension of the subtropical ridge across the UK, and with uppers above 10*C for all but a tiny patch over the Solent, it looks capable of producing temps widely in the mid-20s, perhaps high 20s in the usual hot-spots.

Rtavn2161.gif Rtavn2162.gif Rgem2161.gif Rgem2162.gif

Going forward, GFS is still trying for a shift in the HP to sit west of the UK but with less enthusiasm than before, while GEM keeps abroad trough to the NW with the extended ridge nicely maintained (quite the flip from the 00z which developed blocking to the W and NW). Hopefully the ECM 12z will be more toward GEM 12z, just as the 00z was :)

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
34 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

We have good agreement now on the flatter outcome for mid-next week (pending the delayed ECM 12z), but this is in fact a case of 'lose a little, win a little' because the flatter jet encourages a strong north-eastward ridging of the Azores High by the weekend while also propelling a lot of warm air in our direction to accompany it.

Lol

ECM1-120.GIF?09-0

Huge difference at five days out, the GFS/UKMO have the jet blowing through the south of the UK, the ECM takes it north of the UK. ECM by day 7 looks like it could develop a proper UK heatwave with a strong broad ridge.

Still looks like it will slowly turn settled from the south west, though its progress northwards is still in question and the eventual position of the high doesn't look overly ideal.

gens-21-1-192.png   gens-21-1-240.png

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

120_mslp850.png?cb=58 144_mslp850.png?cb=58

Just when you think it's sorted... it's really not! ECM's turn to toy with shallow loe development over Iberia... similar to the UKMO 00z but not looking to break down quite so soon past day 6. How will the renewed push of HP from the SW ahead of the Atlantic trough interact with the shallow heat low? Imagine if the low got trapped in place :blink2: - I've seen ECM try that one before so you never know!

@Captain Shortwave ah juuust beat me to it :laugh:

Regarding GEFS longer-term, I'm hoping it will prove correct to adjust the mean ridge position eastward to account for GLAAM bias. If not, a fresh spell but mostly dry in the west at least will have to do I suppose.

Edit: I knew it, ECM loves to try this sort of thing! One day it will actually come to pass :D

168_mslp850.png?cb=58

 

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening All.... Ecm and gts show a pressure rise next week, in about a weeks time , ecm makes nothing of it ,gfs shows a bigger build of high pressure. Normal summer output....!!!:rofl:

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Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All.... Ecm and gts show a pressure rise next week, in about a weeks time , ecm makes nothing of it ,gfs shows a bigger build of high pressure. Normal summer output....!!!:rofl:

Whatever happens please can we be rid of this cloudy breezy/windy cold nonsense!

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

More like ECM makes less of the ridge, not nothing - but it is indeed a more unstable run with a likelihood of thunderstorms across the SE in particular Sun-Mon. Signs of a new ridge from the west on day 10 although it would probably not be soon or strong enough to save the northwest from seeing a bit of rain off the Atlantic for a time. 

Recm1922.gif  Recm2162.gif Recm2402.gif

I'd say this is a more 2006-style approach as opposed to 1995-style. Looks sufficient for 30*C to be breached in the SE Sat and/or Sun given day-on-day heat build. 

It's an interesting but relatively low probability outcome given the close alignment of the other three. I don't ever dare to fully cast aside the ECM though.

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Evening gang ,really love coming on here for a good read .Iam following all posts most days ,usually when i take a break from nursing my beautiful wife who is very poorly at present ,heres hoping that current mid range models are correct  that we could get our summer back soon .

Just dont know where the time goes these days ,wont be long now till the winter of hell arrives .so onto the models and the positioning of any high pressure will be very critical ,it all could go bang with storms next weekend or just plain v warm and dry ,or even the high slipping away to open the door to our friend the Atlantic ,all very interesting ,take care all and enjoy our great forum ,the best on the Net , cheers :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows the azores high building in next week, especially later in the week bringing increasingly warm / settled conditions with plenty of sunshine, initially for southern parts before extending to most of the uk..it's classic summer weather as we gradually import hot and humid continental air north into the uk with a risk of T-Storms later, especially across the s / se..summery weather looks set to return.:) 

ECMAVGEU12_120_1.png

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ECMAVGEU12_216_1.png

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ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Disappointing ecm run this morning, especially for the north. No heatwave there. Let's hope it's a dud run and not the start of a new trend. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Disappointing ecm run this morning, especially for the north. No heatwave there. Let's hope it's a dud run and not the start of a new trend. 

It looks like it might be the start of a new trend. GFS run is not great with high pressure way out in the Atlantic, leading to a period of chilly NW winds with regular instances of cloud and rain. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Definitely a tad disappointing this morning. Darren Bett mentioned last night that the predicted undulating ridge/trough jet profile that was meant to inflate the high over the UK has changed a bit, and that the patter is now predicted to be flatter - thus not delivering the high pressure we want.

gefsens850london0.png

The ensemble trend is following both the ECM and GFS op this morning in pulling the high back west and allowing cooler air to come down from the north:
 

Recm2401.gifRtavn2401.gif

So all in all, we could end up a bit disappointed from what we were shown over the last 2 days. It looks like a decent warm and settled spell could be off the menu, and just a brief offering instead.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Plenty of warm / very warm and settled / sunny weather on the way according to the Ecm 00z operational, especially for southern uk as high pressure builds in..not so disappointing!:D

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Plenty of warm / very warm and settled / sunny weather on the way according to the Ecm 00z operational, especially for southern uk as high pressure builds in..not so disappointing!:D

72_mslp500.png

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At least even this run should give us a decent weekend but it is a disappointing run when compared to the last few runs. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Let's hope the GEM is right instead :D
Rgem1921.gifRgem1922.gif
Rgem2161.gifRgem2162.gif
Rgem2401.gifRgem2402.gif

Almost certainly in excess of 32c/90f in the east if that verified. Very much a hot outlier though!

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Let's hope the GEM is right instead :D
Rgem1921.gifRgem1922.gif
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Rgem2401.gifRgem2402.gif

Almost certainly in excess of 32c/90f in the east if that verified. Very much a hot outlier though!

The GEM - bless its little cotton socks. Such an attention seeker. 

Edited by blizzard81
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The jet beginning to look a bit flatter which will make the ecm op latter stages more feasible. The ecm spreads reveal an ens appetite for the ecm op too. 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Definitely a tad disappointing this morning. Darren Bett mentioned last night that the predicted undulating ridge/trough jet profile that was meant to inflate the high over the UK has changed a bit, and that the patter is now predicted to be flatter - thus not delivering the high pressure we want.

gefsens850london0.png

The ensemble trend is following both the ECM and GFS op this morning in pulling the high back west and allowing cooler air to come down from the north:
 

Recm2401.gifRtavn2401.gif

So all in all, we could end up a bit disappointed from what we were shown over the last 2 days. It looks like a decent warm and settled spell could be off the menu, and just a brief offering instead.

That was my view a couple of days ago and was lambasted for it by some. Looks nice next weekend though.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

The GEM - bless its little cotton socks. Such an attention seeker. 

Wouldn't discount its output. If I'm right, I'm pretty certain it was the first to pick up on the hints of a record breaking hot spell in July 2015. The other at first were having none of it. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Wouldn't discount its output. If I'm right, I'm pretty certain it was the first to pick up on the hints of a record breaking hot spell in July 2015. The other at first were having none of it. 

GEM is not always bad and probably has a better success rate in spring/early summer due to fact that from August-Jan it has never met a hurricane or winter storm it does not want to blow up. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Taking cursory glances at the models at the moment, and the trend appears to be for high pressure to build and orientate itself in a poor position for any sustained warmth, a brief burst of heat perhaps later next week, before we see the trough to the NW anchoring down on it, and instead it is forced back westwards with resultant cooler trough dominated conditions thereafter. We shall see..

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

Don't worry it will be different again by 12z runs ,it is summer after all, plus plenty time left yet 

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