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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM looking good again tonight. Everything still pointing towards a major warm up towards the end of next week. Hopefully no spanners to be thrown into the works, and we can get onto the finer details of how warm it will get and for how long it will stay settled.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z shows a gradual change to settled and warmer weather next week as the azores high ridges into the south and then turning into a very summery spell across most of the uk later in the run as high pressure really starts to dominate with temperatures soaring..plenty to be positive about from the latest model output.:)

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Glad to see ECM firmly in the 'extended then reloading ridge from the Azores' camp, illustrating a classic fine summer pattern that we could all very much do with after such a wretched week of weather - which has a few more unpleasant days still to bare the brunt of for those up north (unless of course you enjoy the rain!). 

Good thing that at this time of year even sodden ground can dry out nicely after 3 or 4 dry and at least partially sunny days.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates an increasingly settled / warm spell developing next week as the azores high builds across the uk..a very summery spell looks like its on the way.:)..flaming June. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

No comments this morning? You'd think there'd been an election or something! :D

Still good trends, but subtle differences starting to emerge as to how quickly the high builds, and how it ends up sitting over the UK.

GFS quickly pulls the high out west and cools things down, but this ends up as one of the coldest ensemble members:

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Plenty still anchor the high and keep it warm. It probably won't be until after the weekend we get firmer details, as there is quite a bit of ensemble spread from day 4/5, which will translate into the extended parts of the runs being wrong.
 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, no downgrade whatsoever since last night's 12z, we are still on course for a change to increasingly settled and very warm weather during the course of next week as the azores high builds strongly across the uk with plenty of sunshine and soaring temps as we tap into continental air with temperatures into the mid to upper 20's celsius for the southern half of the uk and warm further north too.:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

You can easily guess why I'm absolutely delighted just now with current HP domiinated trends across the outputs.

(Hint : big Somerset event, last week of June) :D

 

But of of genuine interest currently, even to non-Glastonbury goers is J10's daily updates, with a lot of synoptic detail and analysis, in the 'Glastonbury 2017' thread on the 'Spring and General weather discussion' forum.

Edited by William of Walworth
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
13 minutes ago, William of Walworth said:

You can easily guess why I'm absolutely delighted just now with current HP domiinated trends across the outputs.

(Hint : big Somerset event, last week of June) :D

 

But of of genuine interest currently, even to non-Glastonbury goers is J10's daily updates, with a lot of synoptic detail and analysis, in the 'Glastonbury 2017' thread on the 'Spring and General weather discussion' forum.

even bigger event and weather affects more, 3-16 July '17

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A few unrelated posts have been hidden, Please use the Pm system for chit/chat.

Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A very pleasing GEFS 6z mean as we look further ahead, especially from next midweek onwards with a strong surge from the azores high with increasing warmth and sunshine. The mean looks summery which is great to see for the mid / late June period with temps well into the 20's celsius, especially further south.:) 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Looking very good from both ECM and GFS for a spell of some very nice weather from mid next week onwards

Almost as good looking as it was for Theresa May from a similar distance away!

Let's hope the models serve us better than the polls did in terms of advising us how things will end up!

 

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

06z backtracks a little from yesterdays runs and puts the HP out west so temps not looking that exciting either for warmies. End of the run ends with the azores trying to re-establish.   .  

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It's very encouraging news from the latest Ecm / Gefs mean which both indicate an increasingly summery outlook next week and this is reinforced by the latest update from Exeter with a good chance of a hot spell towards the end of next week into week 2..and further ahead sounds very summery too with spells of very warm / hot weather, plenty of sunshine with a risk of thundery outbreaks, especially further south..it looks like this summer will deliver some superb weather!:D

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
39 minutes ago, 40*C said:

06z backtracks a little from yesterdays runs and puts the HP out west so temps not looking that exciting either for warmies. End of the run ends with the azores trying to re-establish.   .  

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This sometimes isn't a bad thing as nearer the time the patterns aligns eastward. I suppose an even better scenario would be if the Hp sat slightly east of the country.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
1 hour ago, 40*C said:

06z backtracks a little from yesterdays runs and puts the HP out west so temps not looking that exciting either for warmies. End of the run ends with the azores trying to re-establish.   .  

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I wouldn't get too hung up on the GFS 06z runs- it has been known as the 'pub run' in the past for good reason. The 06z runs seem to have been doing that a lot recently- showing high pressure much further west than all other GFS runs and the other models.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I wouldn't get too hung up on the GFS 06z runs- it has been known as the 'pub run' in the past for good reason. The 06z runs seem to have been doing that a lot recently- showing high pressure much further west than all other GFS runs and the other models.

I've always thought that it's the 18Z that's called the 'pub run'?

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

6z followed pretty closely to the 0z. High pressure finally arrives for the southern half at least, however doesnt quite make it and then retrogresses out into the Atlantic by the end of the weekend with a more northerly flow. Lets hope the 12z reinforces the high more centrally and deflects the jet further north. If it doesn't and follows similar to the 0 and 6z then I would anticipate the ecm to follow suit and then the upcoming potential warm spell to be a bit of a let down and restricted to one or 2 days only, mainly for the south. Lets hope this isnt the case (although 6z ensembles were in pretty good agreement for the high to be sucked away by the end of the weekend) which isnt a surprise given how this summer is going. Never mind im off to Spain in 2 weeks to remove myself from this grotty abysmal weather. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
49 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I've always thought that it's the 18Z that's called the 'pub run'?

I could be wrong yes, but nevertheless it's widely known that the 06z and 18z runs are generally less reliable than the other GFS op runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I've always thought that it's the 18Z that's called the 'pub run'?

Ed, I heard it's because of the time it comes out uk time, starts half nine, (half ten summer)

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
45 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

giving how this summer is going?? its only a week  old?? :pardon:before that weather has been great.. guess you going  to Spain is in a way mocking our climate. congratulations on your holiday..

Its a way to escape this shi*** weather isnt it? Utter ridiculous. Once again the 12z delays the high coming in. Only 2 days ago it was progged for Thursday now it's Saturday. Same thing is this sh*t country. Chasing phantom high pressure cells that never come to fruition or if they do very quickly subside to more boll*** rain. 

 

That's what holiday homes are for aren't they. Just south of Granada overlooking the Sierra Nevada mountains. 35-39 degrees out there at the moment. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
13 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Its a way to escape this shi*** weather isnt it? Utter ridiculous. Once again the 12z delays the high coming in. Only 2 days ago it was progged for Thursday now it's Saturday. Same thing is this sh*t country. Chasing phantom high pressure cells that never come to fruition or if they do very quickly subside to more boll*** rain. 

 

That's what holiday homes are for aren't they. Just south of Granada overlooking the Sierra Nevada mountains. 35-39 degrees out there at the moment. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

agree, next week looking fairly average, westerlies to dominate, would say 17° and showery all week for this location, 20° expected in SE

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Plenty of lovely high pressure from later next week onwards with warmth and sunshine on the Gfs 12z.:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: south wales uk
  • Weather Preferences: hot and sunny
  • Location: south wales uk
31 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Its a way to escape this shi*** weather isnt it? Utter ridiculous. Once again the 12z delays the high coming in. Only 2 days ago it was progged for Thursday now it's Saturday. Same thing is this sh*t country. Chasing phantom high pressure cells that never come to fruition or if they do very quickly subside to more boll*** rain. 

 

That's what holiday homes are for aren't they. Just south of Granada overlooking the Sierra Nevada mountains. 35-39 degrees out there at the moment. 

Have a great holiday,im off to greece in august to escape the british summer weather tbh...anyway looking pleasant and dry,in the southeast at least...

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