Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[mountain shadow]

Not the best overnight runs from the GFS & ECM.

The high pressure just about makes it in to bring a dry and settled mid week into the weekend of next week.

Unfortunately it doesnt look like a sustained dry spell for now.

[mb018538]

Morning one and all,

Good trends still in evidence today, the big 3 all still showing high pressure moving in from midweek onwards. Varying details as to how it builds and how warm we get, but the general theme is warming up and the sun returning. Bliss!

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Not the best overnight runs from the GFS & ECM.

The high pressure just about makes it in to bring a dry and settled mid week into the weekend of next week.

Unfortunately it doesnt look like a sustained dry spell for now.

Sorry but I don't agree with this at all...

By 240 ecm has high pressure over the U.K., with lows centred over Newfoundland, just below Greenland, Iceland, and Russia. Add to that pressure is low all over the pole, and it's about the best recipe for the uk as you could get!

Edited June 8, 2017 by mb018538

[carinthian]

UKMO builds a classic Azores Ridge across the British Isles toward Mid Summer. Should develop into a high pressure cell centred over the British Isles post 144t with nice conditions prevailing for most. The real heat reserved for Southern Europe at this stage.

 C

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended keeps the UK mainly settled

ECM is settled and increasingly warm we must remember that the 850's don't have to be spectacularly high this time of year to get temps into the mid or upper 20s

[Matthew.]

Yes great charts from UKMO. High pressure at this time of year will feel very warm in that sun! When you see the Azores ridging like that it looks like a good Summers on the way

[Sky Full]

Temperatures at 2m on the 17/06 at 1400h according to the GFS 0Z ensemble set:

Not bad at all.

Would this qualify as 'flaming June', even if it doesn't quite make it to 'scorchio' ..... 

Whatever.   It'll do nicely for me, thank you.

[Singularity]

ECM 00z is exactly what I expected to see in the model output given the background signals, with GEM similar but perhaps slightly too amplified still, UKMO a day quicker than those two models but otherwise the same overall idea, and  GFS not far off either; a flatter jet delays north-eastward extension of the ridge (also worth noting that post-day 10 should be paid little attention given GLAAM bias - not that it should ever be taken too seriously anyway, but on this occasion even the GEFS mean is likely to be adversely affected to at least some extent).

   

 

So it's looking good this morning with respect to mid-late next week 

Something that struck me when reviewing the Jul-Aug 1995 sequence yesterday was how there were still a number of interruptions to the fine conditions, mostly hitting the NE hardest as lows scraped past on their way into Scandinavia. This typically occurs during a 'reloading ridge' pattern in summer as it's rare to have the jet stay far north enough to keep all of the UK in the clear during those intermediate moments as one ridge leaves and another makes its move toward us. 

The temporary restriction of higher pressure toward southern areas typically results in an escalation of humidity and sometimes temperatures before a sharp freshening up. Sometimes thunderstorms feature as cooler air moves in at upper levels ahead of surface levels. 2006 had some very fine examples of this - but let's not get ahead of ourselves; we're far from guaranteed such an appealing run of events this summer. We just have a better shot than has been the case for many years now. Here's hoping!

 

[Singularity]

7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS has trended towards a mean mid Atlantic ridge- cooler than some would like perhaps but not necessarily that unsettled.

This chart could also be interpreted as a typical frequency and strength of high pressure across the UK and NW Europe (decent enough) and less low pressure than usual trying to get in from the west. The poleward bulge in the contour lines over Europe further supports this deduction. This is not bad going for a multi-ensemble-run-mean.

The anomalously high heights over Greenland could be an issue though, as lows may tend to become low moving N of the UK at times resulting in a changeable W to NW flow.

So perhaps quite a variable month overall but with at least an average amount of fine weather to be had. Actually quite similar to your deduction after all - it's only the mid-Atlantic ridge part I'm not so sure about 

Just one model of course and it will be interesting to see what GloSea5 has been getting up to with the next update from the Met Office that should be online within the next 5 days.

Edited June 8, 2017 by Singularity

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

UKMO builds a classic Azores Ridge across the British Isles toward Mid Summer. Should develop into a high pressure cell centred over the British Isles post 144t with nice conditions prevailing for most. The real heat reserved for Southern Europe at this stage.

 C

The latest UK extended at 168t shows a continental feed around the high cell,  GFS has more a Tm flow and ECM sort of in between but more importantly all main models develop a strong Azores ridge in the outlook. These extended forecasts are just on the outer realms of reliability but do show a theme to a better Mid Summer outlook.

 C

[Man With Beard]

Not been on the models a while, got a bit distracted by the politics thread recently, anyway, I'm back for much more important matters such as the ECM T216 and what a lovely surprise it was too!

  

And a sensational mean:

  

nice BBQ weekend perhaps!

[TJS1998Tom]

(00z) Now this is more like it  Some lively Thundery action on this run as well. Another 2-3 day spell of heat with a breakdown on the cards?

[Scorcher]

4 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Not the best overnight runs from the GFS & ECM.

The high pressure just about makes it in to bring a dry and settled mid week into the weekend of next week.

Unfortunately it doesnt look like a sustained dry spell for now.

I think the opposite to you- the ECM is a lot better than last night's offering.

All the models show a strong build of high pressure from mid next week onwards- and I actually think what is showing could be sustained for some time.

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

I think the opposite to you- the ECM is a lot better than last night's offering.

All the models show a strong build of high pressure from mid next week onwards- and I actually think what is showing could be sustained for some time.

I suppose that's the fun of model watching. I see a lovely mid week into the weekend which could be glorious, however, the High Pressure looks like to could slip away and allow more unsettled conditions to intrude from the South. Its a long way off though and subject to much change.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

5 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Not the best overnight runs from the GFS & ECM.

The high pressure just about makes it in to bring a dry and settled mid week into the weekend of next week.

Unfortunately it doesnt look like a sustained dry spell for now.

Are you for real?  Its pointing at one of the best summer scenarios i've seen this year , Jet stream way out to the north sending lows across Greenland.  

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, 40*C said:

Are you for real?  Its pointing at one of the best summer scenarios i've seen this year , Jet stream way out to the north sending lows across Greenland.  

Agreed it looks like a very summery spell will develop during next week with heatwave conditions from the south and the longer range outlook is very good news too with above average temps and very warm / hot spells..this could be a great summer.

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, 40*C said:

Are you for real?  Its pointing at one of the best summer scenarios i've seen this year , Jet stream way out to the north sending lows across Greenland.  

I'm the real deal. Meto also hinting of unsettled weather from the South....

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Jun 2017 to Thursday 22 Jun 2017:

Tuesday will be unsettled across the north with showers or longer spells of rain. Elsewhere, it will be largely dry with some sunny spells. Temperatures will remain around average, perhaps rather warm at times. As the week progresses settled conditions are likely to extend across the UK with some sunny spells developing, but there may be a risk of rain in the far north and far west at times. Feeling slightly warmer as we move through the week, especially in any sunshine, but there may be a risk of rain in the far north and far west at times, and it could become very hot or warm in places over the weekend. There are signs of more unsettled weather developing into the following week, possibly with thunderstorms across the south.

[carinthian]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm the real deal. Meto also hinting of unsettled weather from the South....

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Jun 2017 to Thursday 22 Jun 2017:

Tuesday will be unsettled across the north with showers or longer spells of rain. Elsewhere, it will be largely dry with some sunny spells. Temperatures will remain around average, perhaps rather warm at times. As the week progresses settled conditions are likely to extend across the UK with some sunny spells developing, but there may be a risk of rain in the far north and far west at times. Feeling slightly warmer as we move through the week, especially in any sunshine, but there may be a risk of rain in the far north and far west at times, and it could become very hot or warm in places over the weekend. There are signs of more unsettled weather developing into the following week, possibly with thunderstorms across the south.

A rather strangely worded up date, they say feeling slightly warmer as we move through the week, then say it could become very hot ( not hot ) or warm ( not very warm ). They also twice mention a risk of rain in the far north and far west . Looks like a continental feed to develop later in this forecast period with the usual risk of plume conditions to advance into the south. Anyway, whether it turns out very hot or warm, safe to say becoming warmer for many.

 C

[DTHFCJ]

4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

A rather strangely worded up date, they say feeling slightly warmer as we move through the week, then say it could become very hot ( not hot ) or warm ( not very warm ). They also twice mention a risk of rain in the far north and far west . Looks like a continental feed to develop later in this forecast period with the usual risk of plume conditions to advance into the south. Anyway, whether it turns out very hot or warm, safe to say becoming warmer for many.

 C

yeah know what you mean it is worded strangely,still looks like warming up like they/you say.

 

Edited June 8, 2017 by DTHFCJ

[Frosty.]

Good news from the GEFS 6z mean if you are looking for increasingly settled / warmer weather as it strongly supports high pressure building up from the azores during next week.

[BlueHedgehog074]

The 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly charts from the NOAA seem to be buying into the idea of a more High Pressure dominated setup developing over the UK with less of a cooler, cyclonic influence. While it's not a super strong signal, the bump in the 500mb flow over the UK accompnaied by some fairly higher than average heights in that area - especially to the North of the UK - does suggest a more settled Summery spell is a real possibility. Shows troughing in the mid and Western Atlantic (big dip in the green line along with lower than average heights in that area) showing possibilities of digging far enough South, which may help pump up the Azores ridge far enough over the UK. And perhaps allow a thundery breakdown from between the West and South eventually (although I admit I'm getting ahead of myself, there)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

It would make a nice break from some of the blabby weather that has invaded our island over the last few days. Would personally be great for confidence to continue to grow for this and have the High building far enough North over the UK. But it's good to see the NOAA flirting with a less cyclonic outlook in line with what the models portray, especially GFS. I think a picnic with our teddies could be in order!

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

The 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly charts from the NOAA seem to be buying into the idea of a more High Pressure dominated setup developing over the UK with less of a cooler, cyclonic influence. While it's not a super strong signal, the bump in the 500mb flow over the UK accompnaied by some fairly higher than average heights in that area - especially to the North of the UK - does suggest a more settled Summery spell is a real possibility. Shows troughing in the mid and Western Atlantic (big dip in the green line along with lower than average heights in that area) showing possibilities of digging far enough South, which may help pump up the Azores ridge far enough over the UK. And perhaps allow a thundery breakdown from between the West and South eventually (although I admit I'm getting ahead of myself, there)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

It would make a nice break from some of the blabby weather that has invaded our island over the last few days. Would personally be great for confidence to continue to grow for this and have the High building far enough North over the UK. But it's good to see the NOAA flirting with a less cyclonic outlook in line with what the models portray, especially GFS. I think a picnic with our teddies could be in order!

Unless, that is, they haven't all been thrown out of members' prams, by then?

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Unless, that is, they haven't all been thrown out of members' prams, by then?

Yeah, mind you, that could very well happen if next weeks more settled spell fails to materialise. Might have to open up the Netweather Pram store (lol).

[Singularity]

  

GFS on the left still giving us a hard time as it breaks a low away east from the main Atlantic trough and so keeps the jet flatter and in fact travelling right across central UK. A shallow low is also generated over France which moves NE to Scandi where it encourages the ridge to take on not the greatest of orientations for warmth as it finally manages to build through the UK over the following few days.

UKMO keeps things simpler with no breakaway Atlantic low and nothing consolidating over Europe anywhere near the UK, but we do see the ridge showing more sign compared to previous runs of the extended ridge breaking in two. Any split-off would be likely to stall somewhere close to our east and gain some strength as the Atlantic trough drives warm air over it aloft (which then sinks and reinforces the ridge). We'd warm up a fair bit but be at risk of a thundery breakdown occurring before long. It's probable, though, that the trough out west would align similar to what the ECM 00z showed at +168, in which case the Azores High will extend a new ridge to the NE to join with our current run and something similar to that ECM run would follow.

- that being a run that showed an outcome that was a bit flatter than the UKMO 12z but without the breakaway low of the GFS 12z, which is optimal for a fast-track to warmth without sacrificing stability. Hopefully the 12z ECM won't follow the GFS 12z with it's irritating complications. I know the 00z yesterday was along similar lines so the outcome likely remains among the EC Ens. somewhere. 

Seems like we often struggle to achieve those nice neat transitions to a fine spell, but there's still plenty of hope at the moment.

 

Oh and GEM's nice again, for anyone wondering;

 

+144 is close to the UKMO 12z but slightly to the NW with the ridge position, which suggests to me that the reinforcement from the SW remains more likely than the split-off scenario 

Edited June 8, 2017 by Singularity

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Yeah, mind you, that could very well happen if next weeks more settled spell fails to materialise. Might have to open up the Netweather Pram store (lol).

I'm confident it will materialise, plenty of model support for an increasingly settled and warmer spell to develop next week which could turn into a heatwave.