Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Morning all! Between 10:00-13:00, Net Weather says there is a 37%  chance of a thunderstorm, with 852j/kg of CAPE. Lets see what today has in store, shall we? :D

Edited by LightningLover
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_300617.thumb.png.70b368bcb14323d68d57047fccba8a6f.png

Issued 2017-06-30 07:10:27
Valid: 30/06/17 06z to 01/07/17 06z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - FRIDAY 30TH JUNE 2017

Synopsis

Upper low drifts SE across N France during Friday, an upper ridge of high pressure slides in from the west across northern and western UK. At the surface, a shallow low over eastern England will fill and merge with low pressure system on the near continent, a light northerly flow will cover much of the UK, unstable across S England.

... S ENGLAND ...

Cooler mid-level temperatures across S England than further north, in association with the upper low over France, will create steep lapse rates here as diurnal surface heating increasing into the afternoon. As a result, models indicate a few 100 j/kg CAPE across southern counties of England, highest instability likely to the south of the M4/London - where surface convergence of moisture is likely from sea breeze moving inland against light northerly synoptic flow. So, with convergence inland from south coast, scattered heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop by or through the afternoon. Main risk will be potential for localised flooding due to slow-movement of any showers/storms. No severe weather is expected.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

IMG_0293.JPG

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

The sky here is looking, dare I say it, unstable! (This picture does not do it much justice though)

IMG_0295.JPG

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
15 hours ago, LightningLover said:

Oddly enough no lightning was recorded, And the precipitation that fell from this was very light according to the radar playback. It surprised me, to say the least.

Yeah, perhaps it wasn't fully developed (active) but certainly impressive. Even if we don't get an actual storm I still love seeing towering cb's around.:)

Edited by Windblade
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

Another bust today? I know it was always a low chance but you would expect having had 'low chance' forecasts as many times as we have this year already, at least once it would produce the goods - but alas no.

Too much cloud cover appears to have scuppered our chances - were this up north it seemingly wouldn't be a problem but for us storm-starved CS'ners we need every single parameter to be just right...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

it seems as if today was a bust. we just had a moderate rain shower. Lets hope for some widespread thunderstorms soon, or it will be 2016 all over again. :nonono:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

There appear to be at least two squall lines heading south-south east.  I'm clipping the eastern edge of somthing to the south of them - it's gone quite dark and it's drizzling.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex

Was some convection around this morning but then it clouded up and it's stayed dry and mostly overcast all day. Bust. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

Oh well - another 2 weeks of summer will go to waste now before any potential further thundery episodes for our area so it looks like 2016's spirit lives on

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Clear and Frosty/Snow Showers
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5

Slinging it down here in Derby,nothing electrical though!.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Well it tried earlier this afternoon. Not that I was expecting anything here.  This is the closest it got. 

IMG_0523.JPG

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)

GFS showing bit of a plume starting Wed but looks to stay mostly on the continent currently.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent
  • Weather Preferences: All weather extremes
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent

Another view of the funnel in Kent today 
 

 

Edited by <<Ryan>>
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

I seeing the potential for some thunder at the end of the week (thursday and friday) looking at GFS

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

I know this is still a while off, but on Friday (coming week) there is an 82% chance of t-storms for my location, all day!  And the CAPE is forecast  to be up to 2800J/kg! (Not to mention the temps of 27C). Very exciting stuff indeed. :yahoo:

Edited by LightningLover
Just noticed dewpoints of 24C!!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Not a great deal happening this week though we could see some storms in the south as the heat builds up from France at the end of the week

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 02 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 03 Jul 2017

ISSUED 03:31 UTC Sun 02 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper trough over northern Britain will provide the focus for some deep convection on Sunday as cool mid-levels overspread relatively warm SSTs (and diurnal heating inland). Cold front will provide additional forcing during the afternoon and evening hours, while a fairly pronounced shortwave accompanied by steep mid-level lapse rates will increase the risk of lightning over Shetland towards the end of Sunday night. Some squally gusts of wind will be possible, particularly with the passage of the cold front through late afternoon and evening hours across W. then C. Scotland.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-02

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Good morning everyone! Just checked the local storm risk forecast, and the potential has shifted over to Thursday, as well as a slightly lower risk. One thing i do want to point out is the amount of rain currently expected to fall on Thursday. 44.89mm of rain is expected between 10:00-13:00, with 36.33mm expected between 7.00-10.00. At the end of the day, a whopping total of 83.5mm is expected! (I know this is very likely to change).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Stay hopeful! it can't possibly be worse than 2016, right? errrr....right?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
56 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Stay hopeful! it can't possibly be worse than 2016, right? errrr....right?

I'll try ... but it might be worse - we got one storm last year at least!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...