Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[poseidon]

1 hour ago, Jcweather said:

Been raining heavily for several hours now, but suspect that's all it will be.

Estofex not showing anything for uk tomorrow. Looks like next chance will be Friday afternoon.

Edited June 27, 2017 by poseidon

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Lots of small but thundery showers around us, but nothing over land - yet.

Very small chance if you agree with Dan's convective weather forecast but since every forecast THIS YEAR *for our area* has fallen flat I really see no reason to get excited at all

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 years ago today came up in my Facebook, one of the rare occasions I sh** myself 

 

Edited June 28, 2017 by Surrey

[Windblade]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

3 years ago today came up in my Facebook, one of the rare occasions I sh** myself 

 

Nice! 

[Windblade]

Don't rate my chances for today. Pretty cool and damp here with stratus. Can't see anything happening.

[Frosty hollows]

Lots of convection here, but there's a lot less energy around

[tomp456]

What a beautiful summers day here.

Jokes. It's overcast and dull outside. More like a mild autumn day. 

[Delka]

Whats the next shot of storms where i am? Feel deserving of them after the past 24 hours... narrowly avoided a flooded house in the peak rainfall this morning and its only just gotten up to a rather chilly June max of 12c

[Another Kent clipper]

1 hour ago, Delka said:

Whats the next shot of storms where i am? Feel deserving of them after the past 24 hours... narrowly avoided a flooded house in the peak rainfall this morning and its only just gotten up to a rather chilly June max of 12c

I'm no meteorologist but it might be worth keeping an eye on these French goodies

Edited June 28, 2017 by Another Kent clipper
Forgot image

[Windblade]

They are all dying as soon as they hit the channel unfortunately.

[Thunderstruck]

It's felt like February all day here today to be totally honest, cool overcast, and the odd spit of rain although the cooler weather is very welcome after last week!

[Supacell]

Just a reminder that this is the convective storm discussion thread and not a general weather reports thread. There are other areas on the forum for that.

Thank you kindly.

[Thunderstruck]

Apologies!

[Windblade]

Been overcast but dry (with that dampness in the air feeling) all day with any potential literally disappearing on radar right before it reaches here. Looks like another bust, although the potential was pretty low anyway so I'm not too disappointed. Wonder when the next chance will be?

[Windblade]

Ok, so netweathers own 7 day forecast is currently showing storms for my area friday evening but I'm unsure where this data has come from as can't find any storm forecasts that far out. I have seen this before on netweathers 7 day forecast, usually 3 - 5 days ahead which then drops the probability gradually to reach zero the day before. Not sure what to make of this. 

[matt111]

16 hours ago, Windblade said:

Ok, so netweathers own 7 day forecast is currently showing storms for my area friday evening but I'm unsure where this data has come from as can't find any storm forecasts that far out. I have seen this before on netweathers 7 day forecast, usually 3 - 5 days ahead which then drops the probability gradually to reach zero the day before. Not sure what to make of this. 

Funnily enough the met office app was showing the same last night for late afternoon on Friday. It's already disappeared. 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 30 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 01 Jul 2017

ISSUED 18:20 UTC Thu 29 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper vortex will be centred over France on Friday, with cool air aloft providing an environment with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates - the best lapse rates mainly over France, but just clipping SE England. A decaying band of showers over the English Channel will pivot inland across SE England during the morning, probably no more than a marked zone of wind convergence, but this then providing the focus for scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to develop inland in response to diurnal heating. 

Slow storm motion will bring the risk of some localised flash flooding, with scope for 20-30mm to fall in a short space of time. The area most at risk is Kent and East Sussex, though if cloud breaks are a little more widespread to allow sufficient insolation, then the risk could extend as far west as Exeter and perhaps into Essex / south Hertfordshire. Slack flow and low-level convergence may allow a few waterspouts / tornadoes to occur.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-30

[LightningLover]

43% chance of a thunderstorm tomorrow... 

[Mapantz]

I sincerely hope nothing occurs here tomorrow. I'm right in the middle of building a filter for my pond - rain would be a disaster!

[LightningLover]

Just looked out of my window, and was greeted by this: 

[Windblade]

1 hour ago, LightningLover said:

Just looked out of my window, and was greeted by this: 

Thats a beauty. Haven't seen an anvil that defined for quite some time.

No storm reports for today anywhere. Seems odd given there's clearly one near you! I guess these things are unpreditable (as most of us know all too well) and for me that is both the source of my biggest thrill (when everything comes together and you're in the right place at the right time) and my biggest frustration (when things turn out to be a bust).

[Windblade]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 30 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 01 Jul 2017

ISSUED 18:20 UTC Thu 29 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper vortex will be centred over France on Friday, with cool air aloft providing an environment with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates - the best lapse rates mainly over France, but just clipping SE England. A decaying band of showers over the English Channel will pivot inland across SE England during the morning, probably no more than a marked zone of wind convergence, but this then providing the focus for scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to develop inland in response to diurnal heating. 

Slow storm motion will bring the risk of some localised flash flooding, with scope for 20-30mm to fall in a short space of time. The area most at risk is Kent and East Sussex, though if cloud breaks are a little more widespread to allow sufficient insolation, then the risk could extend as far west as Exeter and perhaps into Essex / south Hertfordshire. Slack flow and low-level convergence may allow a few waterspouts / tornadoes to occur.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-30

Thanks Summer Sun. Looks like I'm in with a chance after all. 

[LightningLover]

1 minute ago, Windblade said:

Thats a beauty. Haven't seen an anvil that defined for quite some time.

No storm reports for today anywhere. Seems odd given there's clearly one near you! I guess these things are unpreditable (as most of us know all too well) and for me that is both the source of my biggest thrill (when everything comes together and you're in the right place at the right time) and my biggest frustration (when things turn out to be a bust).

Oddly enough no lightning was recorded, And the precipitation that fell from this was very light according to the radar playback. It surprised me, to say the least.

[Thunderstruck]

43% chance of storms here too. Let's see what tomorrow brings...

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Windblade said:

Thats a beauty. Haven't seen an anvil that defined for quite some time.

No storm reports for today anywhere. Seems odd given there's clearly one near you! I guess these things are unpreditable (as most of us know all too well) and for me that is both the source of my biggest thrill (when everything comes together and you're in the right place at the right time) and my biggest frustration (when things turn out to be a bust).

It was in France, or the one I could see was anyway, gave a few visible flashes too.