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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

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1 hour ago, Gordon Webb said:

this appears to confirm your thinking

Day 3 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 27 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 28 Jun 2017

ISSUED 16:43 UTC Sun 25 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Atlantic upper trough will dig south towards Iberia on Tuesday, strong northwesterly jet on its western flank but rather weak return southerly flow on its forward side. Broad upper flow is anticyclonic across the British Isles for much of the day, but higher WBPT airmass will begin to advect northwards from France as the flow backs. Falling heights Tuesday afternoon and evening will promote some destabilisation of this airmass, but in a rather messy fashion with pulses of showery precipitation drifting north from France into southern Britain. This may contain some isolated, embedded lightning, but the bulk of any noteworthy instability will likely only clip the far E/SE corner and largely remain over the nearby Continent. Hence, some lightning may be possible on the eastern flank of showery outbreaks of rain across Kent/Sussex and coastal East Anglia late Tuesday afternoon into the evening/night, but confidence is not particularly high.

 

Elsewhere, behind the main frontal rain some insolation combined with cool air aloft will generate marginal instability across Northern Ireland, with scope for a few heavy showers here - perhaps weakly electrified.

Not a very promising forecast compared to what i've seen on the BBC and met office:cc_confused:.

The message of this is basically, unless you are to the East or south east of England, you can pretty much forget about any thunder.

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7 hours ago, samadamsuk said:

Hey all. Last year I spent 2 weeks at lake Garda - arrived in a heatwave that then turned thundery, but missed a direct hit mostly. One of the last days, cape looked reasonably but everything bubbling up was getting sheared off - then I was treated to a supercell over the N of the lake, that threw out a gust front - must have been 60mph sustained - all hell let loose with the lakeside resturants! Awesome to see - things do get serious over there though! Samos :)

Hello Samadamsuk.

I returned from Lake Garda last Saturday (17 June). My wife and I spent a week there. It was very hot with temperatures reaching a peak on the Friday, about 34C, but with a very high humidity. On the Wednesday evening we too had a spectacular storm with the lightning playing on the mountains and the thunder rumbling very loudly.

Kind regards

Dave

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12 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Bit quiet in here?

Probably because the thunder potential is low for most places tomorrow and Wednesday.

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21 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Bit quiet in here?

Because all the action is going to be in France!

Would seem the French are only fit for hosting invasions and nicking all the storms. 

Edited by tomp456
Do I always have to give a reason?

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Plenty of ACCAS streamed by me not long ago. I can still see a lot to the South and Southwest. It all looks rather convincing! mafia.gif

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1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Bit quiet in here?

We've gone to Europe for the action.

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Sky looked interesting very early this morning when I set off from Glastonbury,should of took picks but to nackered .

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Ah, just seen the radar..

Screenshot_2017-06-26-15-52-39.thumb.png.85af00de02762d8c99f02d941275dd14.png

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3 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

Skies have been looking promisingly unstable all day today. Plenty of Ac cas around.

Although its usually a good sign for future storms, it does't always mean that your area will get the storms unfortunately.

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2 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Similar skies here. 

IMG_0518.JPG

Yep looking good here too...

IMG_1274.JPG

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1 hour ago, wimblettben said:

Although its usually a good sign for future storms, it does't always mean that your area will get the storms unfortunately.

I know that, but it's always nice to see :) 

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I've noticed a lot of stuff appearing in here which - being very petty I know - should really be in the Euro storms thread.

Just so it stays on topic for those looking at potential UK storms, whenever they may be...

;)

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Another stunning skyscape (not done proper justice by mobile phone cam).DSC_0044.thumb.JPG.0c9375397d3eca001c7fd85f33cdcebf.JPG

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3 minutes ago, Luke Best said:

Another stunning skyscape (not done proper justice by mobile phone cam).DSC_0044.thumb.JPG.0c9375397d3eca001c7fd85f33cdcebf.JPG

Looks similar here, too! 

IMG_0289.JPG

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