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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Pitstone/Ivinghoe Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Pitstone/Ivinghoe Buckinghamshire

Salisbury is certainly a trigger spot today, I love times of rapid development. Fingers crossed for here the first passed over producing very little, so I'll have to wait and see what develops next hehe.....

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 22 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Fri 23 Jun 2017

ISSUED 07:36 UTC Thu 22 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 07:36 UTC Still muted signals as to how much of an increase in convection from mid-levels may occur over SE England and E Anglia this morning, with perhaps the biggest increase in coverage occurring once the main WBPT plume has shifted out across the North Sea / BeNeLux. Better signals for thunderstorms over parts of Lincolnshire and Yorkshire late morning / early afternoon as well-pronounced trough with cold pool drifts east over residual low-level moisture (SMZ) with notably steep mid-level lapse rates

Elevated deep convection (and potential thunderstorms) may be ongoing / will develop more widely with time across S/SE England and East Anglia on Thursday morning as increased forcing on the forward side of the approaching upper trough destabilises the high WBPT plume. The extent of lightning is questionable, so no MDT has been issued for now - and depending on how slowly this zone of convection clears eastwards, there may be scope for some cells to become rooted within the boundary layer. Some hail will be possible, along with strong, gusty winds.

Farther north, beneath the upper trough / vortex, cold mid-levels will rapidly steepen lapse rates to bring the threat of some showery precipitation over N Wales / southern parts of northern England with a few thunderstorms, especially farther east towards Lincolnshire (and perhaps Norfolk) with better surface heating occurring ahead of this feature. Some uncertainty over the speed of clearance into the North Sea, and so no MDT issued for now. A brief funnel or weak tornado may be possible.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-22

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
29 minutes ago, Dami said:

3 boom of thunder. 

I'm out of no storms

YAY

YAY!! Nice one Dami :D

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Posted
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Severe thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
2 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

If only that storm which developed overnight from the north sea traveled the other way, typical lol

That would have been jaw dropping good, but its England and the weather either loves to surprise you or keep you waiting, like me since Tuesday and watching all of this CAPE go to waste up until this morning. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Just now, Justin123 said:

That would have been jaw dropping good, but its England and the weather either loves to surprise you or keep you waiting, like me since Tuesday and watching all of this CAPE go to waste up until this morning. 

Yeah, I'm not expecting anything here now

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

The cell to the south of Oxford from Milton Keynes

20170622_084113_zpsgahforkp.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Severe thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
Just now, TJS1998Tom said:

Yeah, I'm not expecting anything here now

Its ok Tom , you had it all yesterday. I've been melting in bed the last few nights hoping for a thunderstorm just to break the heat and air a bit ! :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

storm no2 

wow wow wow

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Posted
  • Location: Harefield, North West London
  • Weather Preferences: Big storm!
  • Location: Harefield, North West London

Sun just peeked out here in Watford and lots of acs cloud above the mid level crap 

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
13 hours ago, Summerstorm said:

That's very true to be fair but it all seems to have gone to the east and nothing new is forming to the west of us yet though. My optimism is slowing spiralling but something could yet happen.

Sadly it looks like your spiralling optimism was correct @Summerstorm :(

But on the upside, there are a few interesting charts for next week... Certainly not showing the insane levels of CAPE that was modelled yesterday, but as long as there is no cap in place, then that's not a problem :)

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Posted
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Severe thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
1 minute ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Sadly it looks like your spiralling optimism was correct @Summerstorm :(

But on the upside, there are a few interesting charts for next week... Certainly not showing the insane levels of CAPE that was modelled yesterday, but as long as there is no cap in place, then that's not a problem :)

We could have had all the cape in the World, and still not had anything because of that Damn Cap, next week then ? fingers crossed? the Cape charts look a lot less , but as you sad no cap!

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Just heard a low boom! 

Just look at that North Sea storm. That thing is now kicking out over 300 strikes per minute!!! Laws of meteorology really do make my mind boggle at times..!

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
Just now, Justin123 said:

We could have had all the cape in the World, and still not had anything because of that Damn Cap, next week then ? fingers crossed? the Cape charts look a lot less , but as you sad no cap!

Morning @Justin123 :)
I certainly wouldn't rule out anything next week lets put it like that :)
Yesterday, I was lucky and got quite a half reasonable storm, but for many it was a huge bust which I've also experienced many times.
So I'm hoping that next week (although still a long way off) could be one of those weeks with what looks like very little potential, but could hopefully deliver a rather impressive little storm, somewhere :)

... Forever the optimist me ya know. :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Severe thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
4 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Morning @Justin123 :)
I certainly wouldn't rule out anything next week lets put it like that :)
Yesterday, I was lucky and got quite a half reasonable storm, but for many it was a huge bust which I've also experienced many times.
So I'm hoping that next week (although still a long way off) could be one of those weeks with what looks like very little potential, but could hopefully deliver a rather impressive little storm, somewhere :)

... Forever the optimist me ya know. :laugh:

Morning @Dangerous55019

Sometimes the best storms develop when there is little CAPE, as conditions can favour this, although theoretically this shouldn't be the case. Next weeks rainfall totals are showing extremely high amounts on the forecast, and it also hints towards potential storms every day! 

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Posted
  • Location: peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: extremes, snow, thunder, hot heat, ice cold, etc
  • Location: peterborough

Bloody typical, it dies as it hits peterborough :wallbash: couldn't make it up could ya 

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Posted
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Severe thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK

Another cell ignited in the channel tracking NE'wds.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire

Couple of cheeky cells popped up over the channel. I wonder if these will explode when they hit land?

Justin123 beat me to it!

Edited by Joneseye
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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
3 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

thundery activity seems to have died out now :(

Yeah, sad really! Very gloomy here though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Severe thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK

:D:D

2 minutes ago, Joneseye said:

Couple of cheeky cells popped up over the channel. I wonder if these will explode when they hit land?

Justin123 beat me to it!

Lol, i think you are right in saying that they will explode when the hit land, but it could go either way, so its a waiting game.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
55 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

If you hold on for a few hours you'll probably get that N Sea monster :D

Unfortunately I am about 500 miles too far west. It would be great to see something like that bearing down on me!

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk

Just had three rain drops from a gloomy sky, now brightening up again. Never mid the No Storms Club, what about the No Rain Club? Or the One Minute of Ploppy Rain Club?

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Posted
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Severe thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK

I do have to put out that, in my eyes, any storms today will be small, dis organised, and short-lived, but this allows new cells to form quickly as the old ones decay, shouldn't moan as its still something. :rofl:

 

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