Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[chapmanslade]

4 minutes ago, Luke Best said:

Interesting.  Got some convection going on at cirrus level.  Cirro-cumulus here with virga, if you can pick it out from my crappy phone camera photo...

Right underneath that and impressive anvil developing although with a cloud base that high nothing rain wise will reach the ground. Looks like the cap is eroding now

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

To quote ESTOFEX for today..."Convection is unlikely to get going full speed until later this afternoon, early evening, at approximately 6pm" still another 3 hours of solar-heating left, plenty of high temps, high humidity & DPs, with clear slots. I'm certainly not giving up on today until at least midnight comes.

Good post! Not just because it is encouraging for us storm lovers, but it's good to get some perspective and knowledge injected in here. It's not time to write anything off given it's 6pm on the longest day of the year

Sun's come out here too

[Bolt from the Blue]

Attack of the jellyfish! Could be a nice sunset tonight

[convector]

1 minute ago, chapmanslade said:

Right underneath that and impressive anvil developing although with a cloud base that high nothing rain wise will reach the ground. Looks like the cap is eroding now

surely if the cap was eroding we'd be seeing cumulus at much lower levels

[The PIT]

Well I call this early evening not late afternoon so a little late. But then they say better late than never.

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

Possibly.

However, this is what the Met Office said:

"There is a risk of more severe thunderstorms breaking out over parts of the Midlands, northern England and north Wales from late Wednesday afternoon onwards into Wednesday night, leading to torrential downpours, frequent lightning, very large hail and strong gusts of wind."

Now, I might be getting on a bit, but, I'm pretty sure I read that right.

Lets hope you are right, my family in Hull keep asking me if anything is popping up but nothing yet! That shower near Stoke looks interesting but I presume the Meto must be keeping an eye on things to the west of Liverpool. Lets wait and see if they explode...

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Buddiefan said:

Hi guys. I feel my chances have gone with the few showers that just passed through. Good luck everyone,especially those to the north east of my location

Don't be a tease - put in your location for us please!

[Delka]

Nobody going to talk about the rain that just took over scotland the past couple hours?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, convector said:

keeping an eye on that cell north of stoke-on-trent

I could see it from here, missed me though

[TJS1998Tom]

Brigtening up a bit again, hopefully this will allow for some thunderstorms later

[StormChaseUK]

It is a lot warmer than I was expecting at this time, temps will be well into the 20s, 24c, 25c even by Midnight

[P-M]

1 minute ago, Delka said:

Nobody going to talk about the rain that just took over scotland the past couple hours?

There's only a few recent sferics from it - I've been looking at it the past hour and only a few strikes detected so not that electrically charged I'm afraid.

[Bangers & Flash]

Long-time lurker here (7+ years) - thought I would drop by and say hi!

Currently glued to the forum (as always) and got everything crossed for the next few hours.

Chris





 

[toggerob]

Just now, StormChaseUK said:

It is a lot warmer than I was expecting at this time, temps will be well into the 20s, 24c, 25c even by Midnight

Buxton is at 25.7'c, rising by 0.98'c/hr DP 20.9'c

[Buddiefan]

4 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Don't be a tease - put in your location for us please!

My apologies

[Methuselah]

IMO, too much emphasis is put on the amount of potential energy contained within the atmosphere, it needs a trigger. On many occasions bugger-all happens but sometimes, and I mean sometimes, all hell breaks loose...like in July 2015 and April 2011?

I know it's a shame, but we don't live in Venezuela!

[NUT]

2 minutes ago, P-M said:

There's only a few recent sferics from it - I've been looking at it the past hour and only a few strikes detected so not that electrically charged I'm afraid.

Not even had anything in my part of the lowlands (other than a few light showers) dodged a pretty big bullet here today

[Chris.R]

 Feels amazing now, with showers on and off. 

[Dangerous55019]

1 hour ago, SarahWxm said:

Is this going to be a bust now? All a load of hype for nothing or is the biggest risk going to be nearer sunset?

Evening Sarah. 

I honestly don't know... but reading some of the other posts I wouldn't write this off just yet.

I'm the t'other side of Hope Mountain, so I fully understand your pain on this.

There is a lot more water to go under the bridge as yet. 

[Weather-history]

More sferics again in the Irish Sea,

[Jimmywim]

Newbie question (but fascinated by this and weather in general) - what's the usual altitude for the cap?

Lots of cloud here over east Derbyshire, but with breaks of full sunshine. Had a few drops of rain about an hour ago but that fizzled out. Humidity rocketed up at about 3pm and has stayed up there since.

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

IMO, too much emphasis is put on the amount of potential energy contained within the atmosphere, it needs a trigger. On many occasions bugger-all happens but sometimes, and I mean sometimes, all hell breaks loose...like in July 2015 and April 2011?

I know it's a shame, but we don't live in Venezuela!

Nitroglycerin won't explode unless something triggers it. It will sit happily despite how unstable it is.

[convector]

anyone noticing the line of cumulus developing over northampshire? 

[chapmanslade]

7 minutes ago, convector said:

surely if the cap was eroding we'd be seeing cumulus at much lower levels

The cap today is an elevated mixed layer at quite a high altitude together with a ridge of high pressure. The approaching trough is what is eroding that cap but will the trough move in fast enough to maximise the potential. A few troughs within the approaching airmass will also help

[Allseasons-Si]

Sferics N Wales

and again,a bigger

Edited June 21, 2017 by Allseasons-si