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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards


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Popped out with the camera after finishing work yesterday at 5:45pm. Got onto the storm which passed through Malton when it was near Sledmere in the Yorkshire Wolds. Visually, it appeared supercellula

A few shots of the storm tonight using iLightningCam app.

BIG storm went over here earlier, only just got power back on. Trees down and roads flooded in the Malton area, never seen anything quite like it, absolute carnage. Unfortunately my weather stati

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8 minutes ago, P-M said:

You couldn't make it up - crud all day and yet now blaring sun!

Temp responding aswell gone up 3 degrees in the past hour 

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Just now, Boro Snow said:

Temp responding aswell gone up 3 degrees in the past hour 

I know - I just feel it's too late in the day but never say never mate.

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2 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I'm guessing this is going to be a slow build? There's precipitation near by on the radar but nothing thundery yet (Skellingthorpe, Lincolnshire)

S1600003.JPG

hi, cloud really filling in now, its so hot and muggy though

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If I were up North I wouldn't rule anything out just yet. If/when something forms over the Irish Sea, that's going to have monumental CAPE to tap into over the UK. Good things come to those who wait :) 

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Destabilisation and cap weakening won't occur until later on this evening. Keep an eye on the clear slot coming in from Ireland. Nocturnal cooling will also help I should suspect. 

Tomorrow morning into lunchtime looking better for actually seeing storms come to fruition further south. Yes, there's less instability, but the capping will be much weaker. 

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1 minute ago, Jcweather said:

If I were up North I wouldn't rule anything out just yet. If/when something forms over the Irish Sea, that's going to have monumental CAPE to tap into over the UK. Good things come to those who wait :) 

Think you've got it spot on. I wouldn't be writing anything off this early. Still loads of time yet. Sun is shining, has warmed up significantly. Game on I think :)

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6 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Destabilisation and cap weakening won't occur until later on this evening. Keep an eye on the clear slot coming in from Ireland. Nocturnal cooling will also help I should suspect. 

Tomorrow morning into lunchtime looking better for actually seeing storms come to fruition further south. Yes, there's less instability, but the capping will be much weaker. 

I know I sound pessimistic - the only reason I am doubtful is because a lot hinged on surface temps today on the north to initiate.  Or have I got that completely wrong?

 

Lovely evening now though and even if nothing happens you gotta love this website for the anticipation and fun at the excitement people's posts generate.

Edited by P-M
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Just now, lassie23 said:

:shok: could you imagine if i get some and you don't lol

:nonono:i'd be majorly disappointed seeing i've had a good chance nearly every day this week and only got a torrential downpour and a few distant rumbles

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Another chance tomorrow apparently will have too see if we in the wrong position for it or not. Quick look at GFS and that's a no for us tomorrow. So the blank period goes on.

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DSC_0084.thumb.JPG.99032dbe41826da80332a99b2c3d8cff.JPG

Well... Shows that there is juice there. Just need it to pop off, would be like putting a mentos in a bottle of coke 

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7 minutes ago, P-M said:

I know I sound pessimistic - the only reason I am doubtful is because a lit hinged on surface temps today on the north to initiate.  Or have I got that completely wrong?

 

Lovely evening now though and even if nothing happens you gotta love this website for the anticipation and fun at the excitement posts generate.

Yes. This site has essentially made my life! Such a useful storm chasing tool aswell and to give reports and feedback to everyone. 

As for surface temperature where you are, I wouldn't worry too much, as there's tonnes of rich, moisture laden air flooding up from down here. On the 3rd July 2015 here, we only recorded 22-23c with a cool east wind. Never would I have thought at that time would I see one of the most epic storms in recent history occur later on that night. I even remember some folk writing it off almost and saying it was so cool, the afternoon before.

Paul Sherman however highlighted the WAA flooding in from the south heading north that evening. He was spot on. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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5 minutes ago, P-M said:

I know I sound pessimistic - the only reason I am doubtful is because a lot hinged on surface temps today on the north to initiate.  Or have I got that completely wrong?

 

Lovely evening now though and even if nothing happens you gotta love this website for the anticipation and fun at the excitement people's posts generate.

They were storms in the north this morning just too far north for us which is typical.

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6 minutes ago, P-M said:

I know I sound pessimistic - the only reason I am doubtful is because a lot hinged on surface temps today on the north to initiate.  

That's only part of the story: the main initiation is this trough breaking through from the West clearing the cap. Once that's done, all the bits and pieces should be in place. A good sign is the speed this thing is travelling through; most models put it a lot slower, and thus the risk of nothing happening (too late in the day) was a real possibility. It think it's looking very positive at the moment.

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