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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards


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I disagree with it because it says East Anglia. I have the storm shield well and truly up. 

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Popped out with the camera after finishing work yesterday at 5:45pm. Got onto the storm which passed through Malton when it was near Sledmere in the Yorkshire Wolds. Visually, it appeared supercellula

A few shots of the storm tonight using iLightningCam app.

BIG storm went over here earlier, only just got power back on. Trees down and roads flooded in the Malton area, never seen anything quite like it, absolute carnage. Unfortunately my weather stati

Posted Images

For anything to happen I'd imagine this crud needs to clear.  Sky is currently grey and overcast from this morning's thundery rain.  It needs to clear and be done with it!

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7 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

06z

CAPE WED 1.png

CAPE WED 2.png

Every run seems to delay the break out of storms slightly. For my area the earlier gfs run had the storms between 3-6pm while the 6z shows 6-9pm as the best time.

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Another reason to disagree with that quite extreme Met Monkey prediction...The LCLs (cloud base effectively) of these storms look to be in the range of 3-4000 feet. That is not good for tornadoes. So that already casts doubt on the "moderate tornadoes" line.

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44 minutes ago, P-M said:

This is from UK Weather Scientific who used to be Met Monkey I think? What are thoughts on this? 

DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM STATEMENT for Wednesday 21st June 2017 from 15:00 until 06.00am Thursday 22nd for the potential of dangerous supercells. 

There is a risk of dangerous supercells developing today across Northern England, North East England (Newcastle) and surrounding areas with a slightly lower risk for the Midlands.  The situation is highly complex and a little uncertain due to the number of potential limiting factors however it is expected that a few supercell thunderstorms exhibiting rotation will form later this evening (dependant on heat and trigger locally).

Thunderstorms that develop in conditions present today will be capable of producing large or very large damaging hail, damaging straight line winds and moderate strength tornadoes, not too dissimilar to those that form in the states. In addition usual severe characteristics typical with storms such as frequent lightning and flash flooding will be observed. 

Severe thunderstorms are also possible across the N Midlands and into E Anglia although the threat is more uncertain and isolated due to the presence of upper ridging drying out the vertical profile. Nevertheless any storm that does manage to fire will most certainly become severe and dangerous. 

It must be stressed that any storm that does develop today will need extremely close monitoring and we advise the public to be very weather aware and on high alert. The main risk is considered to be later this afternoon with focus more on the evening when heat and cap breaking is most probable. Please share this post with as many people as possible and rest assured through the day further updates will be provided. A potentially dangerous day of weather locally. As is always the case with set ups like these many places will remain dry or could miss the core of any storms but regardless the violent nature of today's storm potential warrants utmost vigilance and awareness. Stay aware and stay safe.

 

I used to be a member of Met Monkey.  I get what people saying about hyperbole but in my experience Keithy Joe has a particularly good understanding and track record of forecasting thunderstorm events, so whilst I understand what people are saying I also note with interest Keithy Joe's thoughts on the situation.

Let's not forget that in recent years there have been some tragic incidents involving young children where bouncy castles have been taken high into the air by sudden gusts of wind.  Maybe it's not such a bad idea to make people vigilant where the POTENTIAL is as severe as perhaps it is today?

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16 minutes ago, P-M said:

For anything to happen I'd imagine this crud needs to clear.  Sky is currently grey and overcast from this morning's thundery rain.  It needs to clear and be done with it!

Yeah, completely cloudy here, albeit bright. Needs some sunny spells soon.

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Unlike the US we don't have massive tracts of open farm land for twisters to roam in but just large numbers of people and structures. We will see tornado's become more common across the UK as the 'extremes' in weather we see expand further. Will this afternoon be number 1 in that sequence?

MetO will say they warned of strong winds associated with the storms and so will feel justified and we , here, do not believe in UK tornado outbreaks ( yet ). 

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Thinking that the risk area may be a little further south than Manchester eastwards, probably bringing northeast Wales, northern Shropshire and north Staffs into the mix.

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1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Thinking that the risk area may be a little further south than Manchester eastwards, probably bringing northeast Wales, northern Shropshire and north Staffs into the mix.

Hi Nick  - can you just clarify (sorry if I am being thick) but the main areas at risk are a line from Manchester east so taking north of here out of the equation now?  

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2 minutes ago, P-M said:

Hi Nick  - can you just clarify (sorry if I am being thick) but the main areas at risk are a line from Manchester east so taking north of here out of the equation now?  

You're certainly at risk of some strong storms through this evening and tonight, but the main threat of severe will likely remain to your south.

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12 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Thinking that the risk area may be a little further south than Manchester eastwards, probably bringing northeast Wales, northern Shropshire and north Staffs into the mix.

Temps are 25-28C In Shropshire at the moment, so certainly possible 

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2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Temps are 25-28C In Shropshire at the moment, so certainly possible 

It's more the moisture that interests me. Dew points of 21-22c being shown around there which is incredibly good.

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Hello Nick. Southern Scotland keeps getting mentioned for thunderstorms in weather forecasts but it is just cruddy here in the central/west. Do they mean east borders? What are the chances for my area later? 

Thank you in adance. :cc_confused:

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Yellow rain warning just issued for East Midlands, East of England & London & South East England tomorrow

Between 06:00 Thu 22nd and 13:00 Thu 22nd

A band of heavy, thundery showers is expected to move from west to east on Thursday morning. Some places will miss these, but where they do occur there is potential for heavy downpours producing sudden localised flooding of homes and businesses and disruption to power supplies from lightning strikes.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2017-06-22

 

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1 minute ago, John Hodgson said:

We have bit drops of rain here in featherstone W Yorks. Very milky skies though 

Hopefully once that small band of rain has passed through the sun will come out. Clear skies are shown behind it on Sat24.

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1 minute ago, cheese said:

Hopefully once that small band of rain has passed through the sun will come out. Clear skies are shown behind it on Sat24.

Fingers crossed. Hoping it passes in time for my mothers wedding ceremony at half 2 as well! 

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Hazy sunshine here with temps on the rise.

Current 21c with 17c dew.

I seem to be in the center of all the warnings today so will be ready with camera if it kicks off later.

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