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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
    4 minutes ago, P-M said:

    Just awoken by window rattling thunder and torrential rain. Lurvely! 

    Great way to start the day. I'd be quite happy to have thunder wake me in the mornings from now on!

    Certainly wasn't expecting this. Bodes well for the potential this afternoon/evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear

    I would too. Great lying here listening to it. Fingers crosses for this afternoon if they do pop they'll be biggies that's for sure. Gardens had a nice drink this morning too. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Severe thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK

     Sferics are not only present in northern england but also another cell at over te Isle of man now. Looking good for later!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex

    Hmm, if something's kicking off already then tonight could be interesting. Not for me, but certainly over quite a large area from the Midlands northwards I think

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    Posted
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Severe thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
    1 minute ago, Jcweather said:

    Hmm, if something's kicking off already then tonight could be interesting. Not for me, but certainly over quite a large area from the Midlands northwards I think

    Yes you are right, i am over in Harlow and we are not forecast anything, but at least there is something to look at on the radar, unlike the last few dissatisfying days. Anything could happen though and we may be lucky to see something JC. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear

    Heavy rain starting here again and can still hear rumbles. Cant tell if its from the clump coming over or whats already passed. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Sferics getting quite close to me now, 23 miles a minute ago. 

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    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

    was hoping to see the met office forecast with storms included for the next 24hrs but alas no, just a light shower tomorrow morning, here is hoping for a surprise storm later but not looking hopefull.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Latest gfs again shows potential. But will it go boom? 

    IMG_0756.GIF

    IMG_0757.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Mellow autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

    Morning all :)
    Today is going to be very memorable...
    Here are the charts from the 00z run from the GFS for today!! :bomb::bomb::bomb::bomb:
    Now I say its gonna be memorable, this is gonna happen two ways... Its either gonna be a huge bust for may, like the past few days have been, and so it gets remembered for the one of the most storm potential ever forecast yet in fact delivered nothing, or its gonna give us some really quite spiky (dare I say supercell?) storm(s)... Now I'm certainly no expert, but these charts are incredible!! :bomb:
    As ever, its gonna be down to if the cap breaks... Although I admit I am cheered up by the sight of the storms over the north of England this morning :D
    As ever, good luck to everyone on this today, and if you are lucky enough to get a storm enjoy and stay safe :good::friends:

    Screenshot (46).png

    Screenshot (47).png

    Screenshot (48).png

    Screenshot (49).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

    Some of these charts look nice! :bomb:

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    http://estofex.org/

    594a1aaecff7a_ScreenShot2017-06-21at08_03_53.thumb.png.efaf052d6134e447c99f523d20491528.png

    A level 2 was issued for Northern England mainly for (very) large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire

    It's a lovely morning here. Feeling fresh at 16 C. As ever with storms I watch with interest and expect nothing. We can have the fue for a fire, but unless it's lit, we're going to get nothing. Making most of the cool to get some work done before the insane heat later. Good luck everyone, but it's really not worth getting  upset if nothing materialises. But let the chase commence!

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    Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Mellow autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
    12 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

    Some of these charts look nice! :bomb:

    Morning @LightningLover :)

    They look more than nice, the problem is so have the charts for the past two days... But today looks potentially incredible. :bomb::shok::crazy:

    12 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

    Some of these charts look nice! :bomb:

    I don't know why this has quoted twice?

    Edited by Dangerous55019
    Double quote for no reason
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    2 minutes ago, NL said:

    http://estofex.org/

    594a1aaecff7a_ScreenShot2017-06-21at08_03_53.thumb.png.efaf052d6134e447c99f523d20491528.png

    A level 2 was issued for Northern England mainly for (very) large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

    Interesting as it stands midlands north could be in for quite an event. Of course it could all change but the ingredients are there 

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    Posted
  • Location: Waddington, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Waddington, Lincolnshire
    6 minutes ago, NL said:

    http://estofex.org/

    594a1aaecff7a_ScreenShot2017-06-21at08_03_53.thumb.png.efaf052d6134e447c99f523d20491528.png

    A level 2 was issued for Northern England mainly for (very) large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

    Good grief, I'm not sure I've ever seen a level 2 sitting slap bang over the UK!

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    Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Mellow autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
    5 minutes ago, NL said:

    http://estofex.org/

    594a1aaecff7a_ScreenShot2017-06-21at08_03_53.thumb.png.efaf052d6134e447c99f523d20491528.png

    A level 2 was issued for Northern England mainly for (very) large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

    HOLY COW!! Estofex have got my area under a level 2!!! :shok::bomb::crazy:

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
    1 minute ago, Dangerous55019 said:

    Morning @LightningLover :)

    They look more than nice, the problem is so have the charts for the past two days... But today looks potentially incredible. :bomb::shok::crazy:

    I don't know why this has quoted twice?

    I agree! And my hopes are higher today as I have woken up to see some very unstable looking skies, and higher humidity. Good luck to everybody today, and we will see how it goes! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
    10 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

     

    Day 2 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 21 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 22 Jun 2017

    ISSUED 20:58 UTC Tue 20 Jun 2017

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Broad upper ridging (and anticyclonic flow) will still be in place across much of the British Isles on Wednesday, but as an Atlantic upper trough approaches it will advect an EML (elevated mixed layer) above a very warm and reasonably moist surface layer (afternoon dewpoints near 19-21C, ignoring the GFS which continues to over-estimate surface dewpoints, and hence grossly exaggerates modelled CAPE). 

    ----------------------------------------------------

    Elevated thunderstorms will possibly be ongoing / developing at the beginning of this forecast period, especially over northern England and southern Scotland, with general areas of showery precipitation with embedded lightning moving erratically NE-wards across the remainder of Scotland.

    ----------------------------------------------------

    Farther south, assuming plenty of insolation then strong heating will yield 2,000 - 3,000 Jkg-1 SBCAPE in a notably capped environment - the greatest instability developing during the second half of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Many areas will remain dry under such conditions, but it is just possible that enough forcing from a combination of sea breeze, topography, surface troughing and falling heights aloft during the evening hours may be able to overcome / erode the cap to allow explosive but probably fairly isolated thunderstorm development to occur. High-res models continue to offer little support for surface-based thunderstorms given the strength of the capping and dry layers in the mid-levels, but that said elements of medium-level instability release over northern England could become rooted in the boundary layer, and / or surface-based convection could develop.

    Given the lack of any useful guidance (aside from 12z ECMWF, GFS has been consistently too moist in surface layers on recent days and continues to overplay the thunderstorm risk) it becomes hard to highlight any specific areas at risk with any confidence - but overlapping of favourable ingredients would suggest one or two isolated but severe thunderstorms would be possible during the late afternoon, more especially evening, hours across N or E England. Such storms could rapidly organise into multicells or perhaps supercells, capable of producing damaging hail up to 4-5cm in diameter, strong gusts of wind and, if surface winds can remain ideally backed, perhaps also a tornado. A severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out elsewhere in England, but in general capping is likely to be too strong to be overcome.

    It is quite possible that very little, if any, notable surface-based convection occurs - but worth stressing should it occur, then it could be quite noteworthy and potentially disruptive.

    ----------------------------------------------------

    Overnight, rapid height falls as an upper trough approaches combined with a cold front will allow medium-level instability release to help generate some elevated deep convection with the potential for a few thunderstorms - the risk beginning over SW Britain initially, then running NE-wards with time through the early hours. The exact track, extent and timing is very uncertain at the moment depending on the phasing of the upper trough with residual high WBPT plumes across S Britain, and further updates / tweaks may be necessary to the forecast.

    http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-21#sthash.arAdUnhF.dpuf

    now im not sure whether i can expect something or not! :cc_confused:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
    10 minutes ago, NL said:

    http://estofex.org/

    594a1aaecff7a_ScreenShot2017-06-21at08_03_53.thumb.png.efaf052d6134e447c99f523d20491528.png

    A level 2 was issued for Northern England mainly for (very) large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

    i take it back im doomed.. missed out on a level 2 by a couple miles :oops:

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    Posted
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
    12 minutes ago, NL said:

    http://estofex.org/

    594a1aaecff7a_ScreenShot2017-06-21at08_03_53.thumb.png.efaf052d6134e447c99f523d20491528.png

    A level 2 was issued for Northern England mainly for (very) large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

    Bring it on!

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    Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk

    A rather brisk easterly already - soon to be a howling gale no doubt. Makes sitting outside a non starter :nonono: Semi hopeful for later/tonight, but not totally convinced.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
    5 minutes ago, P-M said:

    Bring it on!

    Right bang in the middle of a level 2, Happy days :yahoo:

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