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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards


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33 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I have a funny instinct that we could see some active thunderstorms very early tomorrow morning. 

These charts here just shout activity for me for us Southerners.

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/ani.html?0,gfs_,_eur21.png,cape,mucape,icape,layer,lfc,mulfc,el,icon10,omega,pvort,pvort2,difadv,kili,spout,lapse,lapse2,the700,thetae,mixr,mtv,gusts,stp,srh,srhl,pw,hail

I would be inclined to agree; but I'm no expert :D 
I've seen 11am storms a couple of times before in Salisbury, not intense but nice to see nevertheless; and cleared away any haze for a beautiful afternoon .

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Popped out with the camera after finishing work yesterday at 5:45pm. Got onto the storm which passed through Malton when it was near Sledmere in the Yorkshire Wolds. Visually, it appeared supercellula

A few shots of the storm tonight using iLightningCam app.

BIG storm went over here earlier, only just got power back on. Trees down and roads flooded in the Malton area, never seen anything quite like it, absolute carnage. Unfortunately my weather stati

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Just now, Weatherman662 said:

Storms will probably form over here and then travel to the moderate risk areas 

There are meant to be several areas of initiation linked with the varying features of the setup. 

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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

In my years of model watching, I have never ever seen UK CAPE and LI values showing this at 24 hrs out

ukcapeli.png

I know these parameters mean little in isolation but my word, if something does initiate it'll have untold amounts of energy to draw from

Under -11 LI and nothing to trigger them :nonono: I am having 2012 flashbacks, stuck under clear blue skies with temps in the low 30s. 

Edited by Mesoscale
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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

In my years of model watching, I have never ever seen UK CAPE and LI values showing this at 24 hrs out

ukcapeli.png

I know these parameters mean little in isolation but my word, if something does initiate it'll have untold amounts of energy to draw from

Not to burst your bubble, however, as Dan mentioned in his convective forecast,  he believes that the GFS is over predicting Dew Point temperatures by 3/4 degrees. Thus over predicting CAPE values. The various convective forecasts are mentioning 2000 to 2500 (Still a lot). 

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Met Office forecast has the storms breaking out a good 9 hours ahead of the models predictions, past the highest CAPE values with initiation at 10pm, whilst everywhere else it's looking like initiation begins around 1pm. I was assuming this was a afternoon event?

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Temps a lot lower than by a good 5c and feeling quite fresh here.  Local forecast still saying dry yet with a warning for heavy rain. Doh.

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Just been woken by a thunderstorm in Durham! Worst of it looks like it's passing to the north on radar. 

 

Met office text forecast is also pretty good! 

 

Today:

Warmer and feeling humid with some thundery showers possible through the morning. Probably drier for a time through the early afternoon with sunny spells, before a further risk of thunderstorms developing again from late afternoon, these potentially severe. Maximum Temperature 23 °C.

Edited by Ross B
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Again looks very un inspiring this morning. The storms currently up north are the first thing this week to have more than 2 high res models predict something in that area. 

A massive blanket of cloud also this morning rubbing salt in the wound. 

Called blank Monday and Tuesday, while I think today has the higher possibility, I think many will be disappointed come later today. It's just not the right setup for storms. 

Again, you can have the best look charts in the world, but if you can't get any ignition to fire up the storms then it's wasted. PLUS I don't think some realise that if a storm does bed itself within that kind of atmosphere and manages to break through, it would potentially be life threatening with that kind of energy to tap into. A very rare and unprepared thing to have in this country. Although would be quite spectacular though if anything occurs that is of course if you are a storm nut. 

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24 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Again looks very un inspiring this morning. The storms currently up north are the first thing this week to have more than 2 high res models predict something in that area. 

A massive blanket of cloud also this morning rubbing salt in the wound. 

Called blank Monday and Tuesday, while I think today has the higher possibility, I think many will be disappointed come later today. It's just not the right setup for storms. 

Again, you can have the best look charts in the world, but if you can't get any ignition to fire up the storms then it's wasted. PLUS I don't think some realise that if a storm does bed itself within that kind of atmosphere and manages to break through, it would potentially be life threatening with that kind of energy to tap into. A very rare and unprepared thing to have in this country. Although would be quite spectacular though if anything occurs that is of course if you are a storm nut. 

And what's wrong with a life threatening storm or two? :clapping:

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6 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

And what's wrong with a life threatening storm or two? :clapping:

I think the surprise element more than anything. Given that if something does pop it will take 10-20 minutes or so to form into something with lightning if it can get its act together 

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