Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[convector]

21 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Sorry but this is just plain incorrect, with low pressure close by the UK (as progged over the coming days/week or two) there will be plenty of convective episodes , and no need for the language!......Didn't you have some cracking storms last month?...I'm sure I can remember you posting about them?

plain incorrect? storms initiating around and north of the peak district seems to be the general consensus among models at the moment. 

[Hodgheg]

8 minutes ago, IMP757 said:

Interesting...

Well I'm in a perfect spot for once. Tomorrow I'll be glued to the radar 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

22 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Sorry but this is just plain incorrect, with low pressure close by the UK (as progged over the coming days/week or two) there will be plenty of convective episodes , and no need for the language!......Didn't you have some cracking storms last month?...I'm sure I can remember you posting about them?

I think I suitably censored my rant. Sorry if the language upset you though (little worrying if it did!)

I didn't post about any cracking storms last month. I wasn't even here in fact on the night in question when we almost had one - but when I checked they died off in the early hours just short of here and reignited with solar heating over London.

We've had one or two rumbles but even with chasing I've basically seen nothing this year.

 

[Dami]

Been watching some clouds out front do us they did yesterday. All put gone. And now the radar is showing me some Anaprop-  whatever in the form of a shower or two near me. Yeah right. 

[A.J]

14 minutes ago, convector said:

plain incorrect? storms initiating around and north of the peak district seems to be the general consensus among models at the moment. 

??....I was referring to flash bang's comments about kissing goodbye in the south to anything convective this month, that is simply incorrect

[The PIT]

You watch the storms will pop in south and none further north.

[Nick L]

Just now, The PIT said:

You watch the storms will pop in south and none further north.

Ever the optimist, PIT

[A.J]

15 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I think I suitably censored my rant. Sorry if the language upset you though (little worrying if it did!)

I didn't post about any cracking storms last month. I wasn't even here in fact on the night in question when we almost had one - but when I checked they died off in the early hours just short of here and reignited with solar heating over London.

We've had one or two rumbles but even with chasing I've basically seen nothing this year.

 

you made numerous posts May 28th about a storm, lots of lightning, positive bolts etc

Edited June 20, 2017 by ajpoolshark

[Allseasons-Si]

Come on guys it's not the MOD thread

there is no point bickering at each other because you don't or haven't had a storm IMBY,there is still tomorrow/tomorrow night and thu's morning for a chance just about anywhere from say south midlands northwards,if you are not,then get in the car(if you have one that is) and go chasing because for one,it gets you out and two,you get to see some lovely cloudscapes,i had a few rumbles last month and that was it,yes i was a little bit disapointed because i didn't see or whitness any lightning ,so be it,what i do enjoy the most if i don't get a storm here is reading the post's on this thread when people do get a storm

chins up peeps

[The PIT]

5 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Ever the optimist, PIT

Did last time. Dry in the south east and what storms in the south east.

[convector]

2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

??....I was referring to flash bang's comments about kissing goodbye in the south to anything convective this month, that is simply incorrect

ah, cool. my apologies. i wasn't aware you could be incorrect when clearly exaggerating. 

[Allseasons-Si]

8 hours ago, Nick L said:

While the wind profiles look reasonable initially tomorrow and early afternoon (i.e. backed at the surface) they seem to lose this through the afternoon, this is why I'm personally hesitant to go too gung-ho with supercell/tornadic forecasts. Birmingham for example at midday tomorrow has reasonable directional shear with backed surface flow:

But this gets lost through the afternoon. This is based on the GFS, going to try and produce some soundings from the EC this afternoon.

Any news on these yet Nick.

[Nick L]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Any news on these yet Nick.

Turned out not to be do-able, sadly. I can from the Euro4, however. Will give them a go in the morning.

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Nick L said:

Turned out not to be do-able, sadly. I can from the Euro4, however. Will give them a go in the morning.

Ok Nick,thanks for trying

[Nouska]

7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Turned out not to be do-able, sadly. I can from the Euro4, however. Will give them a go in the morning.

The French models have soundings and hodographs - ARPEGE for all UK and the south only on AROME

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/sondage_arpege.php?region=uk&ech=3&mode=2&wrf=0

[Derecho]

So a pretty disappointing day considering the CAPE levels and the earlier Meto radar forecast. That's 3 days in a row now were no storms have formed despite the Meto forecasts suggesting it.

This indicates that the atmosphere is strongly capped. The problem is a lack of cyclonic circulation, no low pressure system moving up from France within the hot air. Just look at the evening charts for 24th of June 1994. You can clearly see the cyclone

Whereas tomorrow:

So I'm keeping expectations very low because I don't think anything will happen for Western and Southern areas. I think the best chance of storms will be around the North York Moors or Newcastle area with a chance of storms popping up further south also going down to the East Midlands. I do think these will be severe but more localised further south.

Maybe a surprise will pop up but this looks similar to July 1st 2015 plume and not the classic breakdown scenario for southern areas.

 

Edited June 20, 2017 by Quicksilver1989

[tomp456]

Sticky af here on the southcoast 

Yet there's not a single drop of rain in store any time soon, let alone a storm.

Never mind there's always next time.

And the time after that

And the time after that

And the time after that

And the time after that

And the time after that

And the time after that

And the time after that

And the time after that

And the time after that

 

 

etc....

Maybe by 2050 we'll get a good storm. 

[TJS1998Tom]

3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

So a pretty disappointing day considering the CAPE levels and the earlier Meto radar forecast. That's 3 days in a row now were no storms have formed despite the Meto forecasts suggesting it.

This indicates that the atmosphere is strongly capped. The problem is a lack of cyclonic circulation, no low pressure system moving up from France within the hot air. Just look at the evening charts for 24th of June 1994. You can clearly see the cyclone

Whereas tomorrow:

So keep your expectations very low if you are in the south because I don't think anything will happen. I think the best chance of storms will be around the North York Moors or Newcastle area with a chance of storms popping up further south also going down to the East Midlands. I do think these will be severe but more localised further south.

Maybe a surprise will pop up but this looks similar to July 1st 2015 plume and not the classic breakdown scenario for southern areas.

 

I remember when Lincoln, Lincolnshire had a good storm early July, where it started out from 2am lasting till 5am. You could even see the lightning before any thunder showed up. Possibly a repeat tomorrow?

[Derecho]

Just now, TJS1998Tom said:

I remember when Lincoln, Lincolnshire had a good storm early July, where it started out from 2am lasting till 5am. You could even see the lightning before any thunder showed up. Possibly a repeat tomorrow?

I reckon you stand a decent chance of getting a good storm so fingers crossed that you do, you may have to stay awake for a long while into the early hours to see them though!

[TJS1998Tom]

Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

I reckon you stand a decent chance of getting a good storm so fingers crossed that you do, you may have to stay awake for a long while into the early hours to see them though!

Yeah, I'll certainly do an all nighter tomorrow; even if we dont get anything but you never know  ; ) That was the last time we had a good storm here, last year for us was pretty poor

[Julian 777]

6 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Sticky af here on the southcoast 

Yet there's not a single drop of rain in store any time soon, let alone a storm.

Never mind there's always next time.

And the time after that

And the time after that

And the time after that

And the time after that

And the time after that

And the time after that

And the time after that

And the time after that

And the time after that

 

 

etc....

Maybe by 2050 we'll get a good storm. 

I feel your pain ,,,I'm in Saltdean not so far from Worthing ..We just don't seem to get those storms drift across the channel from France anymore

 

[Mapantz]

A lot of the fun is the anticipation. I felt a bit withdrawn after the cracking storms on May 26th/27th, as there was nothing much to do, until the next time. I love all the posting and banter in here, as a few 'genuine' pixels start appearing on the radar.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Out of all the charts I have see the GFS is currently most on point with precipitation charts.

 

Euro4 has no precipitation anywhere near the South of Ireland.

Netwx charts have no precipitation of note.

GFS Ensembles some still suggesting rain to Southern Areas of UK, more North.

GFS on track but has precipitation intensity wrong but judgment of area right.

Edited June 20, 2017 by Ben Sainsbury

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

45 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

you made numerous posts May 28th about a storm, lots of lightning, positive bolts etc

With respect I think you may be cherry picking from the night I drove to the south coast and watched * some * forks dropping distantly into the sea before it swung east and I had to chase it unsuccessfully to Worthing where it was moving too quick and there was too much rain to see anything.

My point stands - that storm was nowhere near surrey.

Surrey itself did have about 8 sferics that night. If it makes you feel better I can lie and say that was a wonderful storm indeed for our county...

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

So a pretty disappointing day considering the CAPE levels and the earlier Meto radar forecast. That's 3 days in a row now were no storms have formed despite the Meto forecasts suggesting it.

 

 

Hi @Quicksilver1989

that will be two days(yesterday and the day before),there was a storm earlier in Lincolnshire