Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[matty40s]

The cumulus tower near mkt harboro  is the same one I was watching yesterday evening, once the sun breaks through,I reckon that will explode.

The skies are far more messy than the last few days, the Midlands could be good today.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Uninspiring high res models this morning for today briefly looked at tomorrow and also zilch. 

I hate these kinds of set ups, because you can have the juicy looking charts that are 99% wasted because of no trigger. I think this will be the same today and tomorrow. 

Just no trigger at all, we have had opportunities in the past few days and nothing materliased. 

Today the euro4 says no, net weather high res no, hiliram no, just don't see it guys.. 

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Cell has rapidly fired up over Grantham! More developments close by too. Interesting..

[davehsug]

Forecast of "severe" thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday on BBC weather this morning, although the animations didn't show them. Suggests human forecaster input drawing different conclusions than some models? Or it could be just the ususl hype!

[Luke Best]

Was expecting to wake up to clear blue skies again, so surprised when I opened the window to this:

 

[Chris K]

19 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Forecast of "severe" thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday on BBC weather this morning, although the animations didn't show them. Suggests human forecaster input drawing different conclusions than some models? Or it could be just the ususl hype!

Difficult...the high res precipitation charts are very uninspiring, but could "dry thunderstorms" be a factor in this? The lower res charts seem to indicate more activity but then again these showed some parts may see an isolated storm yesterday. As far as I am aware nothing occurred?

I personally think areas away of N England and Scotland won't see anything. However, BBC weather has stated things are finely balanced where it means either nothing could happen at all, or we could see some severe thunderstorms develop in some regions.

Someone prod that cap!

Edited June 20, 2017 by Chris K

[Andy Bown]

13 minutes ago, Luke Best said:

Was expecting to wake up to clear blue skies again, so surprised when I opened the window to this:

 

Yes very encouraging mid level instability this morning with plenty of virga and altcas.

[Dangerous55019]

Ohhhh, what ever happened to the days when you could just look at the cape and LI charts and say that either yes its gonna go bang today or not? *sigh* 
... Sorry... Morning everyone, another day and yet more storm 'potential'.
I think today is gonna be a case of west is best... And possibly the Midlands too.
But as @Surrey has already said, its a horrible set up, we've got the most juicy looking charts on the table and nothing.
But on the other hand, @Summer Sun posted the link from Convective weather, and that offers at least a bit more promise.

But for what its worth here are todays charts from the 00z run from the GFS.









Now although these charts look impressive, are they showing these incredible figures due to the cap? I dunno 
So another day of watching the turkey towers going, and probably watching them com back down again? As ever this is mother nature we're playing with, as she can pull a few tricks out of the bag to confuzzle us all 
As always good luck to everyone today, and if you are lucky enough to get a storm, stay safe and enjoy 

 

[LightningLover]

Morning! Another warm and humid morning. Convective weather's forecast looks good for people further north, so good luck to you guys!  

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, matty40s said:

The cumulus tower near mkt harboro  is the same one I was watching yesterday evening, once the sun breaks through,I reckon that will explode.

Surely it would have drifted away to sea by now?

[Supacell]

Well I have the possibility of staying in Germany until the weekend or coming back tomorrow morning. If I was to base it on storms then I do not know what to do. The models are yet again forecasting different outcomes. Some have the main threat for England/Wales being overnight Weds into Thurs, others have nothing for England/Wales but storms across Scotland. Over here the main threat is on Thursday, but the positioning is crucial as to whether I will see anything.

The fact a shower has broken out this early in the day (Lincolnshire) has to be a good sign though back over in Blighty. As temperatures rise the cap should hopefully be broken.

Just for the record it is no different in Germany with regards to the uncertainty. My weather app is warning of severe thunderstorms this afternoon (in only a few hours) but other forecasts are showing a bone dry day here.

[GeordieX9v]

Popping near Sleaford.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

29 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Ohhhh, what ever happened to the days when you could just look at the cape and LI charts and say that either yes its gonna go bang today or not? *sigh* 
... Sorry... Morning everyone, another day and yet more storm 'potential'.
I think today is gonna be a case of west is best... And possibly the Midlands too.
But as @Surrey has already said, its a horrible set up, we've got the most juicy looking charts on the table and nothing.
But on the other hand, @Summer Sun posted the link from Convective weather, and that offers at least a bit more promise.

They did state on Convective Weather that a severe zone was only issued in the unlikely event of the cap eroding, and deep convection being triggered.

There appears to be a good chance we'll see the day pass by with nothing. Usually I'd stay optimistic but having watched the last 48 hrs of CAPE go down the toilet, l must say I'm rather unconvinced.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Turns out looks like a small shower moved along the south coast an hour ago. Maybe look like an anaprop but looks real. Let's hope we can see more initiation as the cold front moves southwards.

Edited June 20, 2017 by Ben Sainsbury

[Dangerous55019]

5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

They did state on Convective Weather that a severe zone was only issued in the unlikely event of the cap eroding, and deep convection being triggered.

There appears to be a good chance we'll see the day pass by with nothing. Usually I'd stay optimistic but having watched the last 48 hrs of CAPE go down the toilet, l must say I'm rather unconvinced.

Morning @Flash bang flash bang etc 
I know, and I fully agree with you, I was trying to be optimistic ... Professional straw clutcher me ya know. 

[Norfolk Sheep]

Rumbling reported in Lincs (east of Sleaford)

 

[LightningLover]

Sferics!! (Eastern England)

[Frosty hollows]

Is there any reasom why Lincs/ Cambridge/ N. Norfolk seem to get more storm action than the rest of the country?(I say seem as I don't know if this is true, but it seems to be where the best storms occur?)

 

[Convective]

Patience today!

It's going to go, and it's going to go big.....!

[Ben Sainsbury]

7 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Is there any reasom why Lincs/ Cambridge/ N. Norfolk seem to get more storm action than the rest of the country?(I say seem as I don't know if this is true, but it seems to be where the best storms occur?)

 

Really not the case though to be honest, I mean Lincolnshire and that have had their fair share the past few years, but there have been plenty of times where other areas like Bristol, (we've had 2/3 storms already) and France imports this year have come quite regularly already so! 

[Norfolk Sheep]

11 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Is there any reasom why Lincs/ Cambridge/ N. Norfolk seem to get more storm action than the rest of the country?(I say seem as I don't know if this is true, but it seems to be where the best storms occur?)

 

Not really, occasionally there is one relatively large event but overall the east has been poorly served for several years now. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

The storm nr Sleaford seems to have developed a nice anvil according to radar and sat24. 

[Homerr]

Looking a little unstable in the skies of Watford though MetO shows 0% of anything happening here today and I have to admit I feel the same way but we'll see it's already 23c with cloudy skies

[Delka]

17 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Is there any reasom why Lincs/ Cambridge/ N. Norfolk seem to get more storm action than the rest of the country?(I say seem as I don't know if this is true, but it seems to be where the best storms occur?)

 

We get just as little as everywhere, we have had a few big storms once every few years that make up for the lack of thunder though which probably make it seem like we get alot but I've watched as half the country is rumbling before and we never heard a thing here.

[Delka]

Smell of rain heavy in the air, looks dark under that could a couple miles away, if i'm not wrong i may clip the edge of something or at least get a bit of drizzle?