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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards


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Popped out with the camera after finishing work yesterday at 5:45pm. Got onto the storm which passed through Malton when it was near Sledmere in the Yorkshire Wolds. Visually, it appeared supercellula

A few shots of the storm tonight using iLightningCam app.

BIG storm went over here earlier, only just got power back on. Trees down and roads flooded in the Malton area, never seen anything quite like it, absolute carnage. Unfortunately my weather stati

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5 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Leicester is the best bet, CU tower on sat24 and heavy precip out of nowhere on the radar.

Looks like it's game on.

Edit: maybe not.

Edited by IMP757
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Latest forecast for here isn't looking good as there only seems to be a risk of thundery showers tomorrow with little chance of these even coming off.

Just looks like the coming cooler weather by Wednesday onwards will produce some murky drizzly weather.:rofl:

I'm so glad i stayed up to watch those frequent lightning storms one of the nights in May now because if i had just gone to bed and missed them i would be very annoyed seeing all of this heat going to waste and easing away with no thunderstorms.

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Severe thunderstorms possible tomorrow

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 20 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 21 Jun 2017

ISSUED 20:02 UTC Mon 19 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

... WALES / MIDLANDS / W COUNTRY / HOME COUNTIES ...

Day-on-day weakening of the ~650mb nose continues as heights aloft gradually fall, which combined with low-level convergence and strong surface heating (generating 1,000 - 2,000 Jkg-1 CAPE) will bring the risk of a few isolated heavy showers / thunderstorms very late Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. Forecast profiles are once again quite dry, which will serve to inhibit deep convection, but should a strong cell develop then, given such instability and dry air aloft, there is scope for large hail 2.0-2.5cm in diameter and localised flash flooding as a result of slow storm motion and local accumulations of 30-40mm in a short space of time. As a result, a SVR has been issued for this, but it is easily possible that no thunderstorms develop and consequently no severe weather will occur etc.

... REPUBLIC OF IRELAND / NORTHERN IRELAND / IRISH SEA / SCOTLAND / N ENGLAND ...

On Tuesday night, an approaching Atlantic trough will advect the high WBPT airmass over southern England northwards across the Irish Sea to Northern Ireland. Increased forcing as upper trough approaches will likely destabilise the mid-levels, especially during the latter stages of the night. An increase in elevated thunderstorm potential seems likely during the early hours of Wednesday, particularly over the Irish Sea, moving into Cumbria and parts of SW Scotland. The risk also extends farther south towards west Wales and perhaps SW England by Wednesday morning, but with less forcing likely here and so greater uncertainty as to whether such (large) instability will be released. The exact areas at risk is still somewhat uncertain, and hence the forecast may need adjusting nearer the time as confidence improves - the SLGT, for example, may need extending across Northern Ireland.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-20

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Nothing is going to happen today from the looks of it but I've learnt something new in the form of anomalous propagation. Always wondered why there were tiny intense showers showing up on the radar where there shouldn't be anything.

Edited by Martin Auld
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Just now, Martin Auld said:

Nothing is going to happen today from the looks of it but I've learnt something new in the form of anomalous propagation. Always wondered why there was tiny intense showers showing up on the radar where there shouldn't be anything.

Anoprop is the scourge of shower chasing :nonono:

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1 hour ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Leicester is the best bet, CU tower on sat24 and heavy precip out of nowhere on the radar.

I've been watching the Leicester cumulus tower from Northants since about 6pm. Looks good but nothing doing. 

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As you say, the 650-700mb nose really is proving a pain in developing any deep convection. Plus the mid-levels are still very dry, and quite dry also at the surface too - all in all serves to inhibit deep moist convection. This was the 12z ascent from Nottingham:

nose.gif

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Sooooo... The question is could tomorrow be game on? 

The top image is what I took this evening... The bottom image I took two years ago and the following day was another swelteringly hot day, but oh boy did it go bang in the evening. 

Plus both were taken from more or less the same spot!! 

Here's hoping. :bomb::good:

B6A96282-8A39-49B7-99DF-8EAA74E6B1D1.jpg

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Looks like we all missed out apart from one or two showers in places lol, I reckon this will be the same for tomorrow and Wedneday; where we have high levels of Cape but nothing or very little will come out from it. Otherwise it would be a great set up if we had storms coming up from the South. Fingers crossed for something later this Summer though

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Feeling humid this morning, and a lot of mid level cloud. 

00z run is still saying yes to some of the most explosive CAPE levels I've ever seen modelled for the UK. -12 LI slap bang over me at 18:00 tomorrow :bomb:!! Wonder what estofex will have to say. Clearly some potential for massive updrafts. Just need that stubborn cap to give way. 

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