Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

18 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

It's been interesting as we've had some charts like that for wednesday for a good two or so days but I'm worried that there wont be anything to set it off :/ 

Dont forget about me with my big cap-poking stick

[wimblettben]

58 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

HOLY COW!!! 
Sorry I've just been looking at the 00z run... I've regained control of my senses now... I think. Lol 
Right ... Where to start?
Today is a good a point as any... 
The first two images show todays potential... And I have to say that it DOES look quite promising. 

 

The next two images show tomorrows potential... 
 

And then we move on to Wednesday... 

  

Now the question is how much capping is going to take place? As despite these quite frankly astonishing looking charts this could end up being a huge bust for many.
But where the cap does break... Well... 
As always, good luck to everyone on this, stay safe folks, and lets hope that this IS the start of the big beasts for this this summer 

And don't ask me why this chart for today has appeared down here. Lol 
\/ \/ \/ \/

This has filled me with some hope that our area may have more of a chance at something now, with more cape values across the southwest.

As you say though, capping is the one thing that will stop anything forming if the triggers aren't strong enough.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Posted by a user on the UKWW forums - a fascinating insight into the experiences of those struck by lightning - and a good reminder to stay safe in any storms this week!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/struck-by-lightning-science-volts-health-weather-mental-health-a7748981.html

[VillagePlank]

Today's hotspot looks to be the Birmingham area, heading up towards Manchester.

A moderately convective environment (KI = 26)  may lead to thunderstorms (TT = 48) Plenty of energy around due to surface heating (CAPE = 1914J/kg, Dp = 20.8) with large instability (LI = -7) should lead to some storms forming. If and where these form, frequent lightning and moderate size hail may become an issue.  That all said, there is a rather dry area aloft that may inhibit storm formation (RH < 45% @ 700hPa) Very strong surface heating should be able to overcome this.

Happy Hunting!

[Dangerous55019]

This is my current view to my South and south west... The azure blue skies of yesterday have gone, and it looks like something is starting to brew up 

... Steady as she goes... This is still a knife edge situation as far as I'm concerned. 

[davehsug]

Some quite impressive convection already visible over the peaks to my North East.

[Chris K]

The CAPE charts look fantastic, but unfortunately for many further South this will be a wasted opportunity, even when the heat gets swept away later this week. Unless we see capping reduce to allow some form of trigger to get convection going, any storms may be quite isolated.

I need to learn how to interpret them, but the forecast soundings like VillagePlank posted above are good tool to see what chances are like.

Fingers crossed that some people see something out of this heat, at least. 

[toggerob]

First signs of CU towers beginning to build towards Rushup Edge.

[Sparkiee storm]

2 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Nice to see that I'm just about under a Level 1 from Estofex 

Good luck bud, hope you see something, I saw the convection you have going up there already.

As for here in the heart of the Midlands, we have towers going up, and already they are bigger then yesterday and that is a good sign, also feeling very hopeful today for some reason, probably because I'm smack band right in the middle of the Estofex forecast 

[VillagePlank]

24 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

Today's hotspot looks to be the Birmingham area, heading up towards Manchester.

A moderately convective environment (KI = 26)  may lead to thunderstorms (TT = 48) Plenty of energy around due to surface heating (CAPE = 1914J/kg, Dp = 20.8) with large instability (LI = -7) should lead to some storms forming. If and where these form, frequent lightning and moderate size hail may become an issue.  That all said, there is a rather dry area aloft that may inhibit storm formation (RH < 45% @ 700hPa) Very strong surface heating should be able to overcome this.

Happy Hunting!

One other thing, if this CAPE is realised (there's always a question of this) then tornadic development may follow (EH = 5) although this seems unlikely given 1-3km shear not being sufficiently high enough for formation (SREH = 28)

Edited June 19, 2017 by VillagePlank

[Dangerous55019]

13 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Good luck bud, hope you see something, I saw the convection you have going up there already.

As for here in the heart of the Midlands, we have towers going up, and already they are bigger then yesterday and that is a good sign, also feeling very hopeful today for some reason, probably because I'm smack band right in the middle of the Estofex forecast 

Cheers @Sparkiee storm  And good luck to you as well 

Everything is really starting to froth up around here now, and it's all coming at me from a south westerly direction.

 

 

1 hour ago, wimblettben said:

This has filled me with some hope that our area may have more of a chance at something now, with more cape values across the southwest.

As you say though, capping is the one thing that will stop anything forming if the triggers aren't strong enough.

The way today is looking I would personally say that this is going to come down to a nowcasting situation @wimblettben 

 

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Dont forget about me with my big cap-poking stick

Keep poking @Flash bang flash bang etc... It looks like your stick is doing its job here quite nicely 

[TJS1998Tom]

Charts are still looking impressive with the 06z, just really hope something triggers them off

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Things are looking a lot more promising today! 

[VillagePlank]

7 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Charts are still looking impressive with the 06z, just really hope something triggers them off

Sadly, I think anyone in that lighter blue in the South is going to be disappointed, today. Although, where this is marginal - clearly all the South can't all have exactly the same value - they might get a dew-point depression boost out of this.

Edited June 19, 2017 by VillagePlank

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I'm not expecting anything here, and as usual I suspect any action will be too far away to be worth the chase

[Puddy Galore]

Skies looking towards Birmingam way from my garden....does it look promising??  Desperate for a good downpour...

[VillagePlank]

1 minute ago, Snowycat said:

Skies looking towards Birmingam way from my garden....does it look promising??  Desperate for a good downpour...

Ideally you need to the clouds to stay away to get maximum surface heating. Then .. ...

[TJS1998Tom]

Here's how my area looks atm

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Car temp gauge says 32°.

Its probably overplaying things (it usually does) but I wouldn't be surprised if we do get a 32° high somewhere around here.

Question is - will that be enough to set things off?

[davehsug]

Looking more capped now. I don't think this unexpectedly thick high cloud is helping, particularly in the Southern half of the sky.

[wimblettben]

13 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Looking more capped now. I don't think this unexpectedly thick high cloud is helping, particularly in the Southern half of the sky.

Agreed! 

The cumulus clouds that are forming look even less tall than yesterday at the moment.

[Pat Butcher]

Wednesday looks like one of the most interesting setups we've had in a long, long time. 

We're at stage 2 of the normal English storm process:

1) Epic setup across a sizeable chunk of the UK

2) Isolated precipitation charts

3) Eastern shift of charts

4) Lincolnshire supercell

[Nick F]

Higher chance than yesterday n next few hours of cumulus vertical growth breaking the cap IMO, as today we have weakening heights towards northern UK and strengthening flow aloft combining with the surface breeze convergence.

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2017-06-19 13:28:42
Valid: 19/06/17 06z to 20/06/17 06z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE FORECAST - MON 19TH JUNE 2017

Synopsis

An upper ridge covers much of central and western Europe including southern Britain on Monday, an upper trough slow-moving  mid-Atlantic extending south near the Azores. Breeze convergence from development of heat low inland across central England this afternoon could trigger a few isolated heavy showers and/or thunderstorms.

... N ENGLAND, E WALES, MIDLANDS, LINCS, NORFOLK ...

Satellite imagery shows cumulus field bubbling up inland across the above areas, also wind observations show some weak convergence zones developing inland across the Midlands, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. Slight fall in heights aloft and strengthening SWly flow aloft towards northern UK this afternoon combined with surface convergence and orographic lift of hot and humid airmass in situ for last few days maybe enough to overcome the capping inversion present in a few spots in the above areas for isolated rapid cumulus growth and a few late afternoon / early evening thunderstorms. High precipitable water values of airmass indcates main concern of any storm would be large spot rainfall totals leading to localised flooding. Any heavy showers/storms should fade overnight.

[Eye to the sky]

We're on our way to mablethorpe today and the clouds are really bubbling up here.Just had some big drops of rain in Skegness,nothing much but promising signs for later on maybe.

[TJS1998Tom]

How would you guys say this looks? Skellingthorpe, Lincolnshire