Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[staplehurst]

9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Yep, the 12z GFS and Netwx-MR shunted the instability further east, staying on near continent and clipping far east of Kent. Mind you, ECMWF all along so far has not been keen at all for a thundery plume across the SE Weds night / Thurs morning. Teach me to be led astray by the BBC forecast earlier today!

Did some digging and found a model with a glimmer of hope! 12z CMC hinting at some elevated thunderstorms which may just graze east coast of East Anglia Thursday morning, before moving away across North Sea. Otherwise, though, very little support right now for anything more than that. Not writing it off entirely given some uncertainties and finessing over the next couple of days, but chances are looking very slim at the moment.

Edited June 12, 2017 by staplehurst

[TJS1998Tom]

18z showing storm potential towards the end of this month

Edited June 12, 2017 by TJS1998Tom

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Here's a video of mine when most people were enjoying an incredible night of storms on the 3rd/4th July 2015. It was just approaching when I captured this amazing peel of thunder before the main event! 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 hours ago, Dami said:

At least most of you have heard some thunder at least. Plenty of annoying wind, cool temps and overcast skies. At least this time last year I was out of 'no storms' in spectacular fashion.

No storms here yet Dami...as if it would be any other way 

[TJS1998Tom]

48 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Here's a video of mine when most people were enjoying an incredible night of storms on the 3rd/4th July 2015. It was just approaching when I captured this amazing peel of thunder before the main event! 

 

Remember this storm very well, from what I remember it lasted a good 4 hours here near Lincoln, you could even see the lightning without any thunder as it approached us. Would love to see something like that again this Summer at night

[lassie23]

5% chance of thunderstorms in the SE on Thursday

[Dami]

4 hours ago, lassie23 said:

5% chance of thunderstorms in the SE on Thursday

I raise your chance and hold at zero percent. 

get in.

[Gordon Webb]

7 hours ago, TJS1998Tom said:

18z showing storm potential towards the end of this month

to be taken with a pinch of salt at that range

Edited June 13, 2017 by Gordon Webb

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

The Creative Commons FBFBETC models are suggesting a supercell over Alton at 23:00 hrs tomorrow evening.

Because of an unusually powerful pre-autumn jet, this single storm will push up toward Guildford where a powerful sea breeze from Hull will stop it in its tracks, parked right over the Leapale Road multistory.

For 5 hours it will maintain here, supported by over 4500 joules of overnight SBCAPE.

Ball lightning will be sporadic but will become prolific by midnight.

There won't be any rain because of the 850HPA winds, which will blow vertically for some reason, most probably science.

Everywhere else will be dry and cold - particularly in kent where they've used up all their instability for the year already.

[THE MISSFITS]

On 6/6/2017 at 18:11, Mesoscale said:

Just spotted this tiny bit of mamatus on that Heathrow hail shower.

Late report from us as our WiFi has been down for a week and we haven't been able to upload video. This was filmed looking south west from Marlow at about 5pm so may be the  same cloud?

 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 14 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 15 Jun 2017

ISSUED 20:46 UTC Tue 13 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

... N ENGLAND ...

Several high-res models suggest potential for some very marginal instability to develop Wednesday afternoon and evening as a developing area of higher WBPT begins to form combined with low-level (sea breeze) convergence. Scope for a few isolated to well-scattered showers to develop, largely too shallow for any lightning - but there may be a small window of opportunity late afternoon/early evening for an isolated strike. In general, potential is only 5-10% in any given location so barely worth a LOW threat level issuance.

Overnight, falling heights ahead of an Atlantic trough may allow a little more destabilisation, this time from the mid-levels - mostly over the North Sea, but perhaps also affecting a similar area over N England. Again, potential is fairly low, but there may be a few showers that form from elevated convection into the early hours of Thursday.

... SE ENGLAND / EAST ANGLIA ...

Barely worth a mention, but advection of high WBPT plume from France late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is unlikely to undergo sufficient destabilisation to be of interest due to upper ridging. That said, subtle falling of heights by Thursday morning may allow some destabilisation to occur, though this more likely by the time the plume has exited to the North Sea (and also beyond this forecast period). Hence a very low chance of some offshore lightning by Thursday morning.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-14

[Harry]

Here are a couple of gorgeous videos from the MCS a couple of weeks ago.

There is another video called Dover Thunderstorm but I haven't posted it because the language is very bad, but it's the best I've seen in demonstrating the mad frequency of the lightning. Check it out, although maybe on mute

[Harry]

10 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

The Creative Commons FBFBETC models are suggesting a supercell over Alton at 23:00 hrs tomorrow evening.

Because of an unusually powerful pre-autumn jet, this single storm will push up toward Guildford where a powerful sea breeze from Hull will stop it in its tracks, parked right over the Leapale Road multistory.

For 5 hours it will maintain here, supported by over 4500 joules of overnight SBCAPE.

Ball lightning will be sporadic but will become prolific by midnight.

There won't be any rain because of the 850HPA winds, which will blow vertically for some reason, most probably science.

Everywhere else will be dry and cold - particularly in kent where they've used up all their instability for the year already.

Ball lightning is no use to man nor beast. Just a ponsy floating fire hazard b

Edited June 13, 2017 by Harry

[Windblade]

13 hours ago, Harry said:

Here are a couple of gorgeous videos from the MCS a couple of weeks ago.

There is another video called Dover Thunderstorm but I haven't posted it because the language is very bad, but it's the best I've seen in demonstrating the mad frequency of the lightning. Check it out, although maybe on mute

Incredible. Wish I saw it when it was that strong. By the time it got to me I just got the tail end of the decaying tip. Five flashes and rumbles, still, love a night time storm.

[Windblade]

Looks like any storm potential for the SE for tonight has evaporated away.  Hope we get some action again soon. 

[NL]

Lots of energy to be tapped into if this came off.. Long,long way off in Fantasy land though.

.

[Windblade]

51 minutes ago, NL said:

Lots of energy to be tapped into if this came off.. Long,long way off in Fantasy land though.

.

Yeah, not counting on that whatsoever. Best to re-assess nearer the time to avoid disappointment I think.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

That Alton storm forecast by the FBFBETC supercomputer has kicked off big style.

unfortunately ball lightning can't be detected by the radars so you'll have to take my word for it

[Boro Snow]

Are we still expecting some storms to kick off here in the North East tonight 

[Dangerous55019]

Today we have had one of the most convective and promising looking skies that I've seen for a long time

Sadly I know that it's highly unlikely to go bang, but at long last, showing signs in the right direction.  

And here is the current sky. 

[Dangerous55019]

1 minute ago, Boro Snow said:

Are we still expecting some storms to kick off here in the North East tonight 

I think we're brewing them up for you around here @Boro Snow 

[NUT]

1 minute ago, Boro Snow said:

Are we still expecting some storms to kick off here in the North East tonight 

Isolated showers. Don't think there was storms for the NE forecast. Doubt you will see one

[Boro Snow]

8 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

I think we're brewing them up for you around here @Boro Snow 

Thanks for that 

[Boro Snow]

10 minutes ago, NUT said:

Isolated showers. Don't think there was storms for the NE forecast. Doubt you will see one

We where under a low warning from Convective Weather might have changed now 

[staplehurst]

14 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

We where under a low warning from Convective Weather might have changed now 

The text also suggested "In general, potential is only 5-10% in any given location so barely worth a LOW threat level issuance." Still a low chance of medium level instability release overnight in same areas, but more likely over the North Sea getting close to Shetland, most of it probably not sufficiently deep for lightning.