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Supacell

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

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13 hours ago, Gorky said:

I have an album on facebook under my account you can share if you wish, too!

I can't seem to find your facebook account do you have the link?

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 09 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 10 Jul 2017

ISSUED 13:06 UTC Sat 08 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Atlantic upper trough will move slowly eastwards on Sunday, its axis over Biscay during Sunday daytime then western France / western Britain overnight into early Monday. On the forward side, advection of a higher WBPT airmass will occur across England and Wales as a couple of weak, shallow frontal boundaries drift eastwards, beneath dry layers aloft.

A few showers may be possible on Sunday morning from mid-level cloud, drifting eastwards. Then, provided sufficient insolation occurs, falling heights as upper trough approaches combined with a couple of zones of low-level wind convergence should provide the lift required to generate a few isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms. Modelled CAPE of 500-1,000 Jkg-1 seems reasonable given dewpoints of 12-15C - once again ignoring the GFS with its 17-18C dewpoints and hence unrealistic CAPE and shower coverage. Late arrival of upper forcing suggests that the main timeframe of interest will be 17-18z onwards, the main focus being Lincolnshire and/or East Anglia.

The exact location of one or two convergence zones will be key to the areas affected, and there is some spread amongst NWP output at present as to whether Lincolnshire or East Anglia will be most favourable, or perhaps a combination of both as the upper trough continues to allow showers to develop overnight with eastward migration. Hence the (low-end) SLGT may need tweaking in shape as confidence improves. There could be a weak funnel / tornado as dewpoint depressions reduce during the evening hours, and cloud bases lower somewhat.

Late in the night, there is a low risk of some remnant elevated convection drifting close to SE England from France, but this appears to be a decreasing trend in recent model runs and probably not worth a mention.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-09

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There looks to be a bit of convection going on to the south east of Chester at the moment. :)

 

IMG_2946.JPG

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IMG_20170708_164109.jpgI am at my dads in Marlborough for the weekend and there some big clouds around

 

IMG_20170708_164012.jpg

IMG_20170708_164044.jpg

Edited by tomdewey

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So a thundery low coming up from France is now once again a non-event for down here but expected to produce the goods up north again? Why does this keep happening? :wallbash:

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5 minutes ago, TropicThunder said:

So a thundery low coming up from France is now once again a non-event for down here but expected to produce the goods up north again? Why does this keep happening? :wallbash:

 It certainly won't be in this part of up north. 

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Expecting the normal blank here as well. Local forecast has it dry for tomorrow as well.

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16 minutes ago, TropicThunder said:

So a thundery low coming up from France is now once again a non-event for down here but expected to produce the goods up north again? Why does this keep happening? :wallbash:

So infuriating.In future when the TV forecasts are put out stating thunder risk from France I think I will ignore them..They cover themselves by using language implying  the risk is there but their graphics showing  lightning flashing away over the South Coast gets our juices flowing only to have it taken away..Im only going to take notice of our own Nick F on here.  He,s brilliant.He doesn't over or underplay events that must be a forecasters nightmare..

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Not often I wish away storms but would like nothing to stray near to Hyde Park tommorow night.

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18 minutes ago, Jules777 said:

So infuriating.In future when the TV forecasts are put out stating thunder risk from France I think I will ignore them..They cover themselves by using language implying  the risk is there but their graphics showing  lightning flashing away over the South Coast gets our juices flowing only to have it taken away..Im only going to take notice of our own Nick F on here.  He,s brilliant.He doesn't over or underplay events that must be a forecasters nightmare..

They are rubbish forecasters anyway,and that includes the met office. Everything gets watered down nearer the time. And this line of 'wetest in northwest,driest in south east' ???Well no sxxt sherlock!!!

 

 

 

5 hours ago, Eugene said:

The series of boring summers continue, no thundery showers at all, just like i predicted a tedious humid nothingness with no temperature swings, it seems fresh summer weather is now almost impossible to achieve for longer than a day or two in southern britain now.

 

Don't check the model output anymore as they're useless beyond 3 to 5 days, if any lovely fresh weather is forecasted you can be sure it'll be downgraded and another tedious hot dry period appears, can someone private message me please when autumn is here, i cant be bothered to check anymore, thanks.

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Not often I wish away storms but would like nothing to stray near to Hyde Park tommorow night.

I agree, my uncle's going to that too. Which ever day Tom Petty and Stevie nicks are there. Not sure if it's today tomorrow or even both. He's always going to concerts.

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A lot of frustration in here from the storm starved. Contrary to popular belief not all places in the Midlands take all the storms. Here in the Derby area there hasn't been a proper storm for two years! I think storms have been particularly scarce overall so far this year. Statistics for June say the month was wetter than average but that is definitely not the case here, I don't remember a June so dry in recent years.

However, lets try to stay positive. By this stage in 2013 it was a very poor season with very few stormy episodes. Then at the end of July all hell was let loose and there were storms right into October.

156 pages, not bad for a relatively quiet few weeks, although potential has been there. However, i will be locking this thread shortly.

Edited by Supacell

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Shiny new thread here

 

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