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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

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WE have frequent thunder, but it's a way off to the west...Unless I'm imagining things, of course!:yahoo:

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8 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Cell moving away to the N/E now lots of distant cg's coming every 10/15 seconds now, a very lively cell.

Can see it from here, just for once it would be nice if things tracked over Norfolk!

6thJuly.jpg

Edited by Norfolk Sheep

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2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Depends on cold front timing.

Longer the front stalls the further west showers will initiate 

Brickfielder said earlier he thought Cold Front might be Clearing UK by mid afternoon and he thought a zone of wind convergence would be the primary trigger , Dan from convectiveweather indicated the same thing in his latest , me personally I have no idea , I'm just quoting other sources

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16 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Met office app (don't know how much stall you set by it) shows you having a 50% chance of thunderstorm 2-3pm

Morning @Carl46Wrexham :)

I'll take a 50% risk. :D

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Should be some nice action at Southwold Pier in Norfolk soon.

 

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Convective Sky Watch Update. :bomb:

This is my current view over to my west... Looking at the Clwydian Range. :)

IMG_2880.JPG

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2 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Convective Sky Watch Update. :bomb:

This is my current view over to my west... Looking at the Clwydian Range. :)

IMG_2880.JPG

Good to see some towers forming at long last.

Nice view by the way :-)

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All very un inspiring I have to say. Euro4 bang on the money so far 

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6 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Convective Sky Watch Update. :bomb:

This is my current view over to my west... Looking at the Clwydian Range. :)

IMG_2880.JPG

I think you can see the development on the satellite images. Seems to be more cloud across North Wales

 

http://en.sat24.com/en/gb

 

Edited by Weather-history

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Wasn't under the brief Maidstone cell earlier but could see it from the car park.

Skies are clear-ish but there is a lot of messy aCas and towerage about. Feeling hot and muggy.

Really feels like storms could pop up anywhere in this area, but I want it all to wait until later so we get something noteworthy rather than a brief cloudfart!

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Guess I'm just going to have to settle for another very warm, sunny day. Life's hard sometimes lol. Enjoy the storms those who get any.

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Strong rumbles in Longstanton, Cambs. Storms now kicking off along the line from here to the East Coast.... very active development going on as I speak 

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Interestingly, for between 17z and 18z this evening, my iPhone weather app now says 60/70% probability of thunderstorms respectively.

Can't recall the last time I saw probabilities that high.

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I can just see that line of precipitation forming exploding into some huge thunderstorms as the heat builds. All from that line of Cumulus that I saw earlier. 

The line of precipitation is slowly increasing in intensity too.

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Don't think there will be any storms here in Southampton now after last nights big steaming turd of a forecast. I've seen more electrical discharge from a 10 year old duracell battery. The Cambridgeshire region has done ok but compared to what was forecast yesterday this has been a massive disappointment.

Up North however I think there is still a much better chance but the storm drought continues yet again down this way. When will a plume ever live up to it's thundery potential here? Maybe somewhere in the south could get lucky later but I am very pessimistic given the lack of activity in the channel compared to what was forecast by many models.

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6 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Where would be a good place to get to this afternoon - was considering heading anti-clockwise round the M25 to Hertfordshire area and waiting for developments there.

Any thoughts?

Right now if I were you I'd situate myself in the triangle between Northampton, Peterborough and Cambridge.

There is an area of clear sky over West Midlands, north of the current line of AcCas, as this continues to move east strong dirnual heat could spark off a storm or two just north of the line of showers atm.

 

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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As I thought my few drops is now producing thunder, be it away from me.

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developments off the south of ireland approaching wales  seem very potent  very humid and muggy here at the moment

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Few showers cropped up south of the isle of wight now. 

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Don't think there will be any storms here in Southampton now after last nights big steaming turd of a forecast. I've seen more electrical discharge from a 10 year old duracell battery. The Cambridgeshire region has done ok but compared to what was forecast yesterday this has been a massive disappointment.

Up North however I think there is still a much better chance but the storm drought continues yet again down this way. When will a plume ever live up to it's thundery potential here? Maybe somewhere in the south could get lucky later but I am very pessimistic given the lack of activity in the channel compared to what was forecast by many models.

Sounds like the most trustworthy models got it spot on - but unfortunately other modelling systems went to town and got it badly wrong!

Very early to write today off - it was always this afternoon and into this evening that was where the main interest lay, maybe not in your neck of the woods but for more central areas it's still all to play for - more so considering the effect of better insolation now taking place.

Was always gonna be a chase-day in my book...

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