Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[TJS1998Tom]

Just checked the latest BBC Weather forecast, it looks like Lincolnshire area could get some very lively storms Thursday evening, might need to charge up the camera just incase lol

[matt111]

First strikes appearing over northern France. Looks like that storms heading too far east though. 

[biddie]

I think today from about 6 onwards will be very lively indeed

[Mesoscale]

Considering BBC were going for showers in the South by 3, its not looking good so far. 

[biddie]

Storms very suddenly forming on French coast in channel and one very close to plymouth

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, biddie said:

Storms very suddenly forming on French coast in channel and one very close to plymouth

Nothing on the radar near plymonth unless it hopped across the channel. Anyway all quiet on the radar a few showers in far south and more general rain over Scotland far north of England. Also a few showers in the north of England.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Euro4 trumps again in saying no showers down south the only model to constantly get this stuff right. Which does not look good for today if we follow the euro4 

[The PIT]

The duck is waddling out for the south east for the morning storms and the game keeper is getting ready to shoot it.

[The PIT]

6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Euro4 trumps again in saying no showers down south the only model to constantly get this stuff right. Which does not look good for today if we follow the euro4 

That says no for us as well.

[Dangerous55019]

The mid level fog here has cleared a bit, and lots of ACCAS visible.

Its an encouraging sign at this hour of the day. 

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, Dangerous55019 said:

The mid level fog here has cleared a bit, and lots of ACCAS visible.

Its an encouraging sign at this hour of the day. 

 I'm wondering whether the southerners might finally be jealous of us later for a change given the epic fail they're having down there. 

[tomp456]

What a load of tosh.

its a bust....surprise surprise!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Some accas dotted about in an otherwise very clear sky, and the temperature climbing already. The day is young, and under a level 2 from estofex! Let's just watch this one unfold. Surface based activity may well take place today, something we don't often see in high cape scenarios, but usually with the standard cool Atlantic low pressure systems. 

[jamesthemonkeh]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

 I'm wondering whether the southerners might finally be jealous of us later for a change given the epic fail they're having down there. 

It's always a failure down here - the north and the midlands get most of the storms.  That said, the actual clouds look threatening here in NW London and I don't think this morning is a write-off yet.

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, jamesthemonkeh said:

It's always a failure down here - the north and the midlands get most of the storms.  That said, the actual clouds look threatening here in NW London and I don't think this morning is a write-off yet.

 Doesn't feel like that  living here most of the time, The NE maybe. 

[Dangerous55019]

4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 I'm wondering whether the southerners might finally be jealous of us later for a change given the epic fail they're having down there. 

Morning @Chris.R 
I honestly don't mate... My own personal gut feeling on this is that we're certainly in with a 50/50 chance on this today... So fingers and everything else crossed. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

3 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

What a load of tosh.

its a bust....surprise surprise!

A bust? It's 6 in the morning buddy, and it clearly says in the estofex forecast, not until the later period of today that the storms are likely to fire up with an approaching trough/front. Certainly not a bust! If something hasn't happened by this time tomorrow, then maybe! 

[Harry]

I don't have an unobstructed view of the southern skyline but what of it I can see is very unstable looking.

[jamesthemonkeh]

Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

A bust? It's 6 in the morning buddy, and it clearly says in the estofex forecast, not until the later period of today that the storms are likely to fire up with an approaching trough/front. Certainly not a bust! If something hasn't happened by this time tomorrow, then maybe! 

I think he is specifically relating to his area on the south coast - I don't think anyone is expecting this afternoon's trough to affect anywhere along the M4, let alone the south coast.

[Chris.R]

5 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Morning @Chris.R 
I honestly don't mate... My own personal gut feeling on this is that we're certainly in with a 50/50 chance on this today... So fingers and everything else crossed. 

 I am a bit worried about the wind vectors. Usually need a substantial  southerly component for my location; you'll be alright though. 

 Edit: just looked again and actually looks to be SSW until around 15Z, although only 10-15 mph. Might be alright after all. 

Edited July 6, 2017 by Chris.R

[Dangerous55019]

Right!! *said in a brisk and business like fashion*
Morning everyone 
Well the day has arrived, as per my earlier post we've got loads of ACCAS around this neck of the woods this morning 
But due to the hit and miss nature of storms (unless its an MCS or supercell) then they really could breakout anywhere.
Here are the latest charts from today's 00z GFS run from 06.00 - Midnight.

A lot of this today is gonna come down to now casting, watching weather/storm radars etc, and I always find that an AM/MW radio is always a handy tool to use as well. 

Good luck to everyone with this today, stay safe and lets hope that this turns into a memorable day for all of the right reasons. 
Happy hunting folks. 

[tomp456]

5 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

A bust? It's 6 in the morning buddy, and it clearly says in the estofex forecast, not until the later period of today that the storms are likely to fire up with an approaching trough/front. Certainly not a bust! If something hasn't happened by this time tomorrow, then maybe! 

Even for s coast?

 

was never expecting any home grown storms here!

even will it thunder is at 0%, despite it being at 60-80% all week lol

 

there is some ac so maybe still a remote chance 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 minute ago, jamesthemonkeh said:

I think he is specifically relating to his area on the south coast - I don't think anyone is expecting this afternoon's trough to affect anywhere along the M4, let alone the south coast.

That's all part of the fun. Anywhere could get one. Trying to forecast storms on a pin point scale in this country is not an easy job! Shifts on scales of as little as 50-100 miles can easily land you without a single thing at all. Look at the 21st around two or so weeks ago, most of us saw nothing, whilst the North Sea got bombarded with a mothership that made it all the way to Slovakia! And then take July 17th 2014, only the far SW was forecasted to have elevated storms of little impact, and that Ended up with a whole line of storms slamming the south coast and even up to the Home Counties! Nowcasting is the best and most reliable thing in these setups. 

[Dangerous55019]

8 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 I am a bit worried about the wind vectors. Usually need a substantial  southerly component for my location; you'll be alright though. 

 Edit: just looked again and actually looks to be SSW until around 15Z, although only 10-15 mph. Might be alright after all. 

Let me see if I can pull up some Skew-T charts, as they are often the best way to check in situations like this 

[Thunderstruck]

Morning all!

Not a lot to speak of right now, although the sky looks the most unstable it has for ages. 

It's a loaded gun

Being under an Estofex Level 2 and a Convective Weather MDT, I'll be pretty disappointed if I don't see anything.

Give it a couple of hours I reckon...