Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Hodgheg]

6 minutes ago, Dami said:

I see your charts and raise you mine :

 

Oh god I loathe hour by hour forecasts. Not worth arguing over.

[Weather-history]

Manchester TAF

TAF: EGCC 051704Z 0518/0624 VRB03KT 9999 SCT025 BECMG 0609/0612 18010KT PROB40 TEMPO 0612/0617 4000 +SHRA TSGS BECMG 0615/0618 31010KT

[Boro Snow]

Nothing from Estofex yet which makes me worry about tomorrow

[Mokidugway]

Wasn't expecting anything from this ,now I'm expecting less 

[Allseasons-Si]

Let's hope we have plenty of these to look at come tomorrow/tomorrow night

and not these

i finish work at 2pm tomorrow and it's going to be touch and go and prob'y have to set strait off out again lol.

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester TAF

TAF: EGCC 051704Z 0518/0624 VRB03KT 9999 SCT025 BECMG 0609/0612 18010KT PROB40 TEMPO 0612/0617 4000 +SHRA TSGS BECMG 0615/0618 31010KT

In english terms WH

Edited July 5, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Mokidugway]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Let's hope we have plenty of these to look at come tomorrow/tomorrow night

and not these

i finish work at 2pm tomorrow and it's going to be touch and go and prob'y have to set strait off out again lol.

I'll settle for the ant ,at least it clutches straws ..

 

[Homerr]

What are we thinking for London? Heathrow and Northolt going for TSRA from 0600 30/40%

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

In english terms WH

Probability 40% :

Temporary
from 06 at 12 UTC to 06 at 17 UTC

Visibility: 4000 m

heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, small hail or snow pellets

[toggerob]

 

[jamesthemonkeh]

Latest Met Office precipitation charts are very uninspiring for the south, bar the far south-east, for the morning event.

Great if you are further north for the afternoon/evening.

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Weather-history said:

Probability 40% :

Temporary
from 06 at 12 UTC to 06 at 17 UTC

Visibility: 4000 m

heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, small hail or snow pellets

Thank's

[Thunderstruck]

Most places seem to be pointing at a storm around midday here, which is fine by me, however I am seeing some fluctuation as to the actual time of these storms.

The standard (and rather unreliable!) weather app on my iPhone fancies rain from 8:00am to 14:00 and then storms into the evening, which seems unlikely

I feel like I'll see something, but only time will tell when.

Edit: Looking at Euro 4, I may end up being woken up slightly earlier than I would have hoped!

Edited July 5, 2017 by Jcweather

[Sparkiee storm]

Very unstable (plumey) looking skies in the Central Midlands tonight.

[Rob Walker]

1 hour ago, wimblettben said:

Pretty much nothing for our area then, its all north!!!

Gutted if this model is true, there were suppose to be widespread storms across the south and southwest a few days ago.

Thank god I got a good distant light show in May otherwise I would be on suicide watch now.

I'd take each run with a pinch of salt really - get an overall picture yes but they are hardly ever spot on. Plenty of warnings and forecasts saying risk of storms in the central south still; albeit if the risk has since increased central and eastern areas. 

"The vast majority of guidance suggests a few thunderstorms will develop over the English Channel and/or S/SW England 23 - 02z...." 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-05

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, jamesthemonkeh said:

Latest Met Office precipitation charts are very uninspiring for the south, bar the far south-east, for the morning event.

Great if you are further north for the afternoon/evening.

Looks like popcorn storms springing up pretty much everywhere 50 miles east of me ,lol

 

[Dami]

12 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

Oh god I loathe hour by hour forecasts. Not worth arguing over.

said in jest.

[Rob Walker]

1 hour ago, wimblettben said:

If you had looked at the BBC forecast on Monday evening, you would have seen masses of rain with lightning showing across the southwest and moving northeastwards.

And I would say that it doesn't even look isolated for our bit now, nothings showing up on the precipitation models, only for the midlands eastwards.

 

Edited July 5, 2017 by Rob Walker

[Allseasons-Si]

People need to settle down a bit and wait for tomorrow(the actual day) to see what crops up,it is alway's a nowcast situation when it comes to storms and none of the models or forecasts will be bang on correct,it is the same with the warning areas and can shift either west or east of the forecasted warning areas so sit tight...

and happy hunting tomorrow

 

 

[Dangerous55019]

JACKPOT!! 

Well, as far as today goes anyway...

I've just seen these accas clouds to my south, heading west to east... 95% of the time when these appear the day before, we normally get a storm of some description the following day. 

... Let's just say this has given me a bit more hope for tomorrow. 

[tomp456]

AROME going for the teaser....

You never know, might be slightly wrong and get hit head on. 

 

Edit: am in Worthing, Sussex, S.coast... thought the pics would save with a location marker. 

Edited July 5, 2017 by tomp456

[sparky1972]

just seen the bbc news weather forecast and we are certainly in the no storm zone, storms to the south during the morning, and north of here in the evening

[Sparkiee storm]

Dark cloud have formed out of the clouds I posted above now but nothing forecast.

[Allseasons-Si]

Initiation north coast of spain.....and quick too

although i am not sure this will effect us.

Edited July 5, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Martin Auld]

I like how the term ''Kent Clipper'' has become a meme in this forum, its rather amusing. Speaking of which, hopefully tomorrow's event won't turn out to be one, we really need some decent storms.