Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Ben Sainsbury]

The NetWx-SR Precipitation charts although should be taken with a pinch of salt look a lot more appealing to me with the initiation of storms further west than the previous run. With a continued risk of thunderstorms across central areas later once the clag pushes through.

Edited July 5, 2017 by Ben Sainsbury

[A.J]

7 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

The NetWx-SR Precipitation charts although should be taken with a pinch of salt look a lot more appealing to me with the initiation of storms further west than the previous run. With a continued risk of thunderstorms across central areas later once the clag pushes through.

I've normally championed the NW hi-res model, but on the past couple of convective episodes, it has been hopeless, so yes, not just a pinch of salt, but a whole salt cellar........now casting and radar watching later on this evening will be the name of the game

[Windblade]

49 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

I agree with you there - even when I'm storm chasing in America, I do still get a little jealous of any storms that may be happening back home at the same time. There's something about having a storm on your home soil...

Lol, yes, its something I can't put into words but there's just something special about the atmosphere with a home storm. Plus obviously I'm at home so have all my equipment there to take, edit and upload pictures etc. Can also have the radar on the tv in the background at the same time as well so can see whats coming!

[Windblade]

37 minutes ago, Harry said:

Personally, I'm growing less optimistic based on the latest models. 

To me, the most explosive juice seems to be staying continent side, while yes there'll be instability and some potential triggers it is not on the scale that I think was being indicated a short while ago.

I suspect there will elevated storms across the S/SE tomorrow and some home grown cells on the northern and western edge of the plume, but in between I suspect much of the instability available won't be tapped and we'll be witness to some isolated torrential downpours and maybe the odd isolated intense thunderstorm, but little more widespread than that.

Hopefully I am totally wrong, but I cannot help but interpret the latest models in this way 

I know what you mean. Like myself, it seems experience has taught you to be pessimistic unless there is absolute certainty of a storm in your location (believe me I can relate). I am trying to stay grounded myself but I must admit the charts and data coming out are looking a lot more positive for a storm to hit my area than anything else (except end of may - which even then I only caught the very tail end of - 5 flashes and four bangs) I've seen this year. I'm gonna hope for this one I think and see what happens. Wishful thinking and all that!

Edited July 5, 2017 by Windblade

[Paul]

53 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

I've normally championed the NW hi-res model, but on the past couple of convective episodes, it has been hopeless, so yes, not just a pinch of salt, but a whole salt cellar........now casting and radar watching later on this evening will be the name of the game

The SR has a bit of a convective spin-up issue at the moment, in that it's not picking up on developing convective stuff during the first 3-6 hours of a run very well. So this means the most recent run as and when stuff is happening isn't picking everything up it might. We're working on a fix for that currently, but prior runs up to recent convective events (on the viewer use the view previous run button on the day of the event) have generally done very well.

[weirpig]

Taking a quick look at some of the HI Res  charts  there is still some quite big differences between them (as to be expected)     below are a quick sample of said charts.  Hirlam  goes initially for a south east event edging into the midlands   were as at the same time the arpege takes the main band sightly more North and West giving the midlands and east anglia more in the way of rain.  Later on in the day  hirlam  gives most  rain to the midlands ,northern england,  towards the north east   whilst the arpege takes it more towards yorkshire.   Then again we could get nothing    clear as mud.

[Mapantz]

I'm quite confident of seeing getting something down here, on the coast. Although, if elevated, it would have been better to see something coming in tonight - radar it is!

[dave reid]

1 hour ago, Morisco123 said:

Hi Dave, 

 

I have also done the same!  I have not planned where I will be driving too yet though. Any thoughts on where is best to set up first? I am coming from Buckinghamshire

 

 

I've not looked at charts in detail and as every run changes so will the focal points for tomorrow. 

Will be spending some time on the forecasting this eve when I'm home from work, and also be asking on here for help. 

No pressure guys, don't let me down

[dave reid]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Taking a quick look at some of the HI Res  charts  there is still some quite big differences between them (as to be expected)     below are a quick sample of said charts.  Hirlam  goes initially for a south east event edging into the midlands   were as at the same time the arpege takes the main band sightly more North and West giving the midlands and east anglia more in the way of rain.  Later on in the day  hirlam  gives most  rain to the midlands ,northern england,  towards the north east   whilst the arpege takes it more towards yorkshire.   Then again we could get nothing    clear as mud.

I'll take the top chart please 

[A.J]

13 minutes ago, Paul said:

The SR has a bit of a convective spin-up issue at the moment, in that it's not picking up on developing convective stuff during the first 3-6 hours of a run very well. So this means, the most recent run as and when stuff is happening isn't picking everything up it might. We're working on a fix for that currently, but prior runs up to recent convective events (on the viewer use the view previous run button on the day of the event) have generally done very well.

Cheers Paul, I'm glad to hear it's just a bug in the software.....over the years I'm found it the most reliable short range suite (and have taken stick on here for talking it up)

[staplehurst]

6 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Cheers Paul, I'm glad to hear it's just a bug in the software.....over the years I'm found it the most reliable short range suite (and have taken stick on here for talking it up)

A lot of models struggle with spin-up times - in my experience of using the EURO4, the first 6 to 9 hours can generally be ignored for convection. That's why, as Paul says, it's not necessarily the most recent run that's got the best handle on the weather. 

[A.J]

first patches of Cirrocumulus drifting up from the south west....a good sign....I'll be watching for Ac Cas from early evening onwards I reckon

[Dangerous55019]

Not the best picture in the world I know, but there are strong convective cloudscapes forming over to my East... Towards Cheshire. 

[Mesoscale]

Ants are flying today, I wonder if its a sign for things to come? 

[slinky1989]

14 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Ants are flying today, I wonder if its a sign for things to come? 

Thanks for that, just looked outside and it's antmageddon out there.

 

Not looking forward to leaving work now!

[Mesoscale]

Just now, slinky1989 said:

Thanks for that, just looked outside and it's antmageddon out there.

 

Not looking forward to leaving work now!

I have never seen so many before!!

[Harry]

1 minute ago, Mesoscale said:

I have never seen so many before!!

Im driving back from Bedfordshire shortly....my car is going to get smothered...bugger

Edited July 5, 2017 by Harry

[Dami]

not seen any.

[karyo]

9 minutes ago, Dami said:

not seen any.

Storms or ants?

[Dami]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

Storms or ants?

at the moment none of the above. 

[Mokidugway]

No Decs either 

[RichmondWeather]

55 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Ants are flying today, I wonder if its a sign for things to come? 

They have started to become bigger since yesterday here in the London area, but only a few have grown wings so far.

[Frosty hollows]

56 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Ants are flying today, I wonder if its a sign for things to come? 

We have a hatch too. It's probably as accurate a predictor of storms as anything else tbh

[dave reid]

            FOR IMEDIATE BROADCAST

****As of 16.31 severe flying ant warning issued, take cover immediately****

[Mapantz]

Flying ant day then? I had two of those last year, neither of which coincided with any thunder potential.