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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
10 minutes ago, Harry said:

Unlike other times, we do have the possibility of that cap being eroded. It is, as noted on the UKWW extracts, unlikely to be by virtue of temps/DPs, but instead a trough feature, falling heights and/or CZs. If the cap does go (and I agree, environment increasingly capped around London at the moment) then it will be explosive and likely packed full of severe elements. With pressure falling and some atmospheric disturbances lurking around up there, I'm not out of hope yet.

Thanks Harry. I'll turn my hopes towards an evening storm then. If we don't get one though it will be yet another day of very high possibility that turned out to be a bust. Kind of a repeating pattern I'm sure you'll agree. I try not to get my hopes up for these events as it inevitably leads to disappointment when things don't materialise, but this particular setup looked so promising (cape numbering three thousand on some forecasts) it was kinda hard not to this time. :cray:

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

Can see the darker based clouds moving east of here now. Think those east of the Pennines might be in for a treat!

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

That cell to the west of Newcastle is really building now - encouraging.  Just need to to electrify and keep going!

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
5 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

Can see the darker based clouds moving east of here now. Think those east of the Pennines might be in for a treat!

Has the wind direction changed where you are? You must be starting to get the sea breeze

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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

 

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Has the wind direction changed where you are? You must be starting to get the sea breeze

I've not really been noticing that, except it has picked up and it does now look like it's more NWerly. Convection has died a death west of here, just milky skies.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

This just to the north of me

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Just now, Darren Bown said:

 

I've not really been noticing that, except it has picked up and it does now look like it's more NWerly. Convection has died a death west of here, just milky skies.

Yes, that's the sea influence. We can forget the storms now.

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

Nope it's a dud.  Maybe next time.

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

The Met Office has updated the weather warning for today.

 

Yep and removed us up here lol

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

The Met Office has updated the weather warning for today.

yes, to remove areas not considered at risk now. otherwise just the same

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 A bit of a seabreeze here. Not really affecting the temperatures too much though. 23.7°C down from 25.0°C max an hour ago. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
20 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Thanks Harry. I'll turn my hopes towards an evening storm then. If we don't get one though it will be yet another day of very high possibility that turned out to be a bust. Kind of a repeating pattern I'm sure you'll agree. I try not to get my hopes up for these events as it inevitably leads to disappointment when things don't materialise, but this particular setup looked so promising (cape numbering three thousand on some forecasts) it was kinda hard not to this time. :cray:

Hard to say what will happen to be honest. My phone app has slashed the risk from 80/90% to 50/60%

Unfortunately MetO clearly of the view we will not be in luck down here  

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

That cell has blown up to the NE of me,should i stay or should i go.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, Harry said:

Hard to say what will happen to be honest. My phone app has slashed the risk from 80/90% to 50/60%

Unfortunately MetO clearly of the view we will not be in luck down here  

Enjoy your half-a-storm Harry?:D

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
5 minutes ago, Harry said:

Hard to say what will happen to be honest. My phone app has slashed the risk from 80/90% to 50/60%

Unfortunately MetO clearly of the view we will not be in luck down here  

Why does that not surprise me? So typical. This is why I try not to get my hopes up and generally take forecast events with a pinch of salt, but this one in particular looked very promising and it was difficult not to get excited going on what was being forecast and the charts/data.

What have we got to do in our neck of the woods to get a proper full blown homegrown mcs these days? Shall we organise a communal rain dance?

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
3 minutes ago, dave reid said:

You can see where the cold front is and the change of wind direction 

 

Screenshot (6).png

Screenshot (7).png

would you like to tell where I have a rough idea but do not intend to embarass myself

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Just now, weirpig said:

Had a quick look at the met office update  seems to have pushed the risk a little more west.  was wales in the warning zone before?.

yes it was

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Still another 3 hours of max daytime heating to go, although the MetO warning extends into early tomorrow am.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
6 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

would you like to tell where I have a rough idea but do not intend to embarass myself

I'm no expert, but there's a line of broken cloud on the satellite running from north-north-east to south-south-west over western areas which coincides with the area where the wind direction changes, so I expect that's where it is.

 

Plenty of high-based cloud, IC strikes and rain associated with elevated storms here.  You can tell there's a warm 'nose' around 850hPa.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Location: Bournemouth
6 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

would you like to tell where I have a rough idea but do not intend to embarass myself

Just pasted Birmingham you can see cloud line going SW and the winds behind have swung to the west 

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