Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Thunderstruck]

Well, the 12:00 storm never came to fruition, and Met O now dropped all mention of storms at 16:00. Skies still looking unstable and humidity ridiculous, so not calling a bust quite yet. IPhone app fancying 60% chance from 17:00-19:00... 

We shall see

Hope we all get something this afternoon! 

[Carl46Wrexham]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

The updated euro 4 has storms for northern england this pm.

....and is sticking rigidly to its guns about nothing for the Midlands and eastwards. Euro4 sitting in its armchair with its arms folded and shaking its head going "nope...nope...I see more than what you see..nope"

[Gordon Webb]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

We'll see...

just went there and they gave me no chance of rain whatsoever

[Sparkiee storm]

Small development east of the isle of wight.

And some cumulus stating to build here now.

[Joneseye]

Pretty jealous of that storm over in Belgium right now

 

[Chris101]

Sat 24 may show something forming just under the main line of showers, have to see a couple more frames.

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

....and is sticking rigidly to its guns about nothing for the Midlands and eastwards. Euro4 sitting in its armchair with its arms folded and shaking its head going "nope...nope...I see more than what you see..nope"

One thing though, Euro 4 hasn't picked up the stuff across SE Eire and to its south too well and it didn't go for the showery rain across NW England this morning.

[Harry]

In between the city skyscrapers it looks like something may be building to the NE

[Sparkiee storm]

2 minutes ago, Joneseye said:

Pretty jealous of that storm over in Belgium right now

 

Nearly always the UK, channel or Northern France develops these storms, so they can go on to be Big monsters like these in places like Belgium and the Netherlands etc, with the UK missing out  

[Gordon Webb]

3 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

....and is sticking rigidly to its guns about nothing for the Midlands and eastwards. Euro4 sitting in its armchair with its arms folded and shaking its head going "nope...nope...I see more than what you see..nope"

seems a bit odd , now the forecasts weren't going for widespread activitiy but there indicating some activitiy

[Delka]

So i should feel lucky that my iphone app, the met office forecast and wunderground are all showing at least 3 hours of thunderstorms each for my location this evening, and on top of it im inside a estofex level 2.. for a hit and miss event i didnt think i would see a chance of getting anything in this time yesterday I'm feeling 60/40 positive now

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

To my untrained eye it would appear that a) the weather sites can't agree on where or when and b) nobody on here has the foggiest idea where or when...!

so I'm just going to watch the radar 

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

One thing though, Euro 4 hasn't picked up the stuff across SE Eire and to its south too well and it didn't go for the showery rain across NW England this morning.

I think that's because its a weakening cold front, and the precip charts struggle with that.

[Gordon Webb]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

To my untrained eye it would appear that a) the weather sites can't agree on where or when and b) nobody on here has the foggiest idea where or when...!

so I'm just going to watch the radar 

well there somethnig to be said for consistency

[Boro Snow]

Under a level 1 on estofex was under a level 2 a few weeks ago which failed to deliver due to excessive cloud cover again today going the same way 

[Joneseye]

4 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Nearly always the UK, channel or Northern France develops these storms, so they can go on to be Big monsters like these in places like Belgium and the Netherlands etc, with the UK missing out  

Let's hope the band of precip over the Irish Sea/SW Approaches can do something similar once it makes landfall

[dave reid]

Currently sat in Tothill services Mcdonalds mid way up the A34.

Hot as hell out but nothing to report other than the Mcflurry is dam good right now.

 

 

[P-M]

2 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Under a level 1 on estofex was under a level 2 a few weeks ago which failed to deliver due to excessive cloud cover again today going the same way 

 

Im not so sure today it's sunnier here than it was then and the humidity has gone through the roof.  It's cloudy but much warmer than that day for sure.

[Sparkiee storm]

Just now, Joneseye said:

Let's hope the band of precip over the Irish Sea/SW Approaches can do something similar once it makes landfall

Hopefully  

[Rob Walker]

Its not an entire miss for the risk of storms in south and central areas (if we take metoffice precip forecasts at 16:00 and wind convergence into account) still a chance (albeit small). 

What the metoffice precip charts did show is that band of rain in the irish sea heading towards wales fading to nothing by 16:00 .... hmmm will have to nowcast that, cant see it dissipating entirely?

[bazookabob]

Looking promising to my southwest, southern pennines/Huddersfield direction. Don't know how the pic will turn out when uploaded but some well defined towers visible. 

Edit, click on pic to improve to resolution and you can see them! 

Edited July 6, 2017 by bazookabob

[VillagePlank]

Look at the bases on these puppies. Looking West from Rochester

Edited July 6, 2017 by VillagePlank

[davehsug]

If anything convection seems to be dieing back here. Wasn't expecting anything given that storms would have to fire mid wales/South Shrops to affect us.

[Boro Snow]

6 minutes ago, P-M said:

 

Im not so sure today it's sunnier here than it was then and the humidity has gone through the roof.  It's cloudy but much warmer than that day for sure.

Not seeing any Sun in Darlington, and the temperature has not even reached 20 degrees yet currently 19.6c, it is Humid though which will probably make it feel warmer 

[STORMGUY]

cumulus clouds now starting to appear.