Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Having a bit of a dilemma here. Do I go SE and try to intercept that developing line, or do I wait here?!... Decisions!

[Ben Sainsbury]

My thoughts of potential new developments atm: 

 

[Frosty hollows]

Lovely arc of showers from Swindon to Ipswich.

Skies are clear again here, but 15 miles north in Oxford looks like a different story

[Derecho]

6 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Sounds like the most trustworthy models got it spot on - but unfortunately other modelling systems went to town and got it badly wrong!

Very early to write today off - it was always this afternoon and into this evening that was where the main interest lay, maybe not in your neck of the woods but for more central areas it's still all to play for - more so considering the effect of better insolation now taking place.

Was always gonna be a chase-day in my book...

Yeah I thought maybe we would get lucky because the Meto forecast radar was pretty bullish at 10pm but very little actually popped up. It seems that areas further north do better from plume setups now compared to the south. Instead of 3 fine days and a storm its often 3 fine days and a bit of low level cloud..., it makes you wonder why the plumes live up to their thundery potential less often... But hey its still early and there may be a surprise but the lack of activity over France/the Channel makes me less confident.

The trough is clearly coming to life to the north of the M4 perhaps it was the bad timing of its arrival that compromised it down here,

Edited July 6, 2017 by Quicksilver1989

[Matty88]

Loving it here at the moment - to the North of Cambridge. Right beside these exploding cells - constant rumbles. Cloud developments are superb! 

[A.J]

9 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I can just see that line of precipitation forming exploding into some huge thunderstorms as the heat builds. All from that line of Cumulus that I saw earlier. 

The line of precipitation is slowly increasing in intensity too.

the precip is evaporating on the way down or is a false return, at least for here....the radar infers moderate to heavy rain here, reality tells me different....in fact, there is some mid-level cloud around but nothing that looks especially threatening

[MrNooo]

1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

the precip is evaporating on the way down or is a false return, at least for here....the radar infers moderate to heavy rain here, reality tells me different....in fact, there is some mid-level cloud around but nothing that looks especially threatening

Over here I can see above that line of cloud and there are some cells bubbling up within it!

[Harsh Climate]

Hoping today is not a bust like that shocking effort a couple of weeks ago! Clear sky just to my west, hopefully this should help todays chances!

[Had Worse]

Nice CG at Southwold

 

[Windblade]

Just been outside. No idea on temperature readings but I can tell you from a human perspective its absolutely BOILING.  Towers to the south, and to the north. Absolutely nothing overhead though except blue sky with a bit of cirrus. Just doesn't seem to be any convection whatsoever in tower hamlets.

Edited July 6, 2017 by Windblade

[Weather-history]

Some good altocumulus castellanus about and hints of small cumulus trying to develop.

[STORMGUY]

some signs of cloud development along wales/england border.

[Mark Walker]

Crystal clear skies and nice heat here in Wakefield now after some murk early on,will see if anything develops.

Edited July 6, 2017 by Mark Walker

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, STORMGUY said:

some signs of cloud development along wales/england border.

Yep ive noticed that.  certainly warm here temps of 26.3  with a DP of 17.1   all seems good at the moment.

[Carl46Wrexham]

43 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Morning @Carl46Wrexham 

I'll take a 50% risk. 

You're still at 50% risk as I type this.  Yours truly currently at <5%. I'll take a distant rumbler though if it comes to it. Better than nothing.

[Dp1981]

Cloud was bubbling up nicely here since early this morning. It's all gone now clear blue sky. 

[Harry]

13 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Just been outside. No idea on temperature readings but I can tell you from a human perspective its absolutely BOILING.  Towers to the south, and to the north. Absolutely nothing overhead though except blue sky with a bit of cirrus. Just doesn't seem to be any convection whatsoever in tower hamlets.

A good dose of insolation my boy - may help us out later this afternoon/evening though not betting money on it 

[karyo]

12 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Some good altocumulus castellanus about and hints of small cumulus trying to develop.

Yes, the sky is looking a bit more favourable now.

Mind you, not a single shower in the region yet.

[Mapantz]

A  DP of 19.3°C - I see some Cu bubbling up to the Southeast of me.

[Windblade]

5 minutes ago, Harry said:

A good dose of insolation my boy - may help us out later this afternoon/evening though not betting money on it 

Lets hope friend. I'm now seeing signs of small cumulus just starting to appear overhead. What I really want to see later is a big, dark, towering cb with visible rain core heading straight towards me while rumbling away! 

Edited July 6, 2017 by Windblade

[JMTD]

40 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Where would be a good place to get to this afternoon - was considering heading anti-clockwise round the M25 to Hertfordshire area and waiting for developments there.

Any thoughts?

Come to Cambridge. I hate the T and L but it feels like we've been targetted anytime there's even been a threat recently. Once again one of the only places to get anything in the entire bloody UK so far today.

 

Bring on the winter where no doubt we won't get a bloody drop of snow though.

[Marcus_surfer]

Whats this feature heading into Wales? It was not forecast. Only a few clouds here and very warm though. 26C

[Windblade]

2 minutes ago, JMTD said:

Come to Cambridge. I hate the T and L but it feels like we've been targetted anytime there's even been a threat recently. Once again one of the only places to get anything in the entire bloody UK so far today.

 

Bring on the winter where no doubt we won't get a bloody drop of snow though.

I've always found East Anglia to be particularly favourable. Every single time I've been there (even just over a weekend), a storm has kicked off. 

Edited July 6, 2017 by Windblade

[Carl46Wrexham]

Sky to my north :

 

[Harry]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A  DP of 19.3°C - I see some Cu bubbling up to the Southeast of me.

This is very encouraging, as is the persisting smattering of AcCas dotted around the London skyline.