Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Had Worse]

Ironic that Tony Blair is in the news. Common theme WMD in 45 minutes.

Weather of mass destruction

[Summer Sun]

13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A few showers have developed to the NW of London worth seeing if they develop further

 

Doing just that

[Azazel]

My thoughts for later this afternoon and into the evening.

 

I expect some pokey cells north of Leeds. Chance of something breaking out down south/south east later in the day into the early evening.

[<<Ryan>>]

If only if was still night time, those along the Kent coast would be getting an incredible light show out to sea!

I can actually hear deep distant rumbles from the big storm out in the channel

 

Edited July 6, 2017 by <<Ryan>>

[tomp456]

Bust update 08:07 UTC

 

Ac/mid level rubbish just gave a few spits of rain.

Sun back out now. 

Breeze is warm and un refreshing and needs to shift. 

[Summer Sun]

North of London and east of Ely are the main areas down south seeing heavy rain at the moment

[tomp456]

The Euro4 right now

 

[Snow Slave]

11 minutes ago, <> said:

If only if was still night time, those along the Kent coast would be getting an incredible light show out to sea!

 

Typical eh, all that storm activity stalled 20 ish miles from me.

Honestly, very annoying.

 

Edited July 6, 2017 by Snowstalker
more miles away than I thought!

[staplehurst]

Just now, tomp456 said:

The Euro4 right now

 

It wasn't always like that 

[Harry]

Cb development NW of London (as has been widely reported already).

Lack of sferic activity suggestive that perhaps the atmosphere is not quite as unstable as we had imagined (notwithstanding all of the AcCas and visible cues).

It is here very humid and increasingly warm this morning. I do wonder whether the failure of the models to accurately predict the non-development of thunderstorms this morning will alter prospects later on...i.e, we all saw yesterday the effect the anticipated development of storms had on other projected parameters...

Much like I rather pessimistically stated yesterday, I am dubious about thunderstorm coverage and still am taking a more negative view, with most of the real humdinging plume juice staying over the near continent. That said, I do think prospects of surface based convection have increased thanks to non-event this morning, albeit that any developments are likely to remain isolated (unless any CZ or trough features pop up unexpectedly)

[Weather-history]

Area of preciptation around Limerick in Eire is interesting, no sferics but looks heavy on radar.

[tomdewey]

Warminster in Wiltshire is still under a yellow weather Waring for thunderstorm 

[tomdewey]

[karyo]

I hope the euro 4 is not right for this afternoon as it hardly shows any activity.

The gfs still shows plenty of shower activity but it has downgraded from earlier runs.

[STORMGUY]

i think that where i am will just be on the developing stage of The Thunderstorms before they move over towards the east of england before turning severe.i expected 2pm onwards from the west east wales i would guess.will put a live web stream om by then.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Area of preciptation around Limerick in Eire is interesting, no sferics but looks heavy on radar.

Well spotted. I wonder if that is the sign of a trigger for later on...!

[Mapantz]

[Chris K]

AROME 00z run still shows some showers breaking out this afternoon in the main risk zones. It has been pretty close so far, I think? (Ignore 1300hr output as it seems to have not updated properly - the rest are fine)

[Summer Sun]

Past 2 hours action

[Windblade]

I expect this afternoon and evening will be when the greatest potential for the south east lies.

[Gordon Webb]

4 minutes ago, Chris K said:

AROME 00z run still shows some showers breaking out this afternoon in the main risk zones. It has been pretty close so far, I think? (Ignore 1300hr output as it seems to have not updated properly - the rest are fine)

Looks like Northern England takes the Brunt this afternoon judging by that

[Summer Sun]

Some torrential rain in west Ireland

[tomp456]

On 04/07/2017 at 16:42, tomp456 said:

When netweather's will it thunder shows 80% chance of thunder for your location on Thursday 

 

But in reality there will be 0 storms 

Heh! 

[BrickFielder]

 Latest Satellite pictures show some Kent clippers developing, which should put on a show. Some development north of London as well.

I am just not that convinced by the potential today now. It looks to me like the weak cold front is moving across a little quicker than forecast and looks to be a weaker feature than I was expecting. It currently looks to have cleared the UK by mid afternoon.

Looking at the Soundings from midnight last night then I can see evidence of two CAP's at different levels and dewpoints not as high as I would have expected. Comparing Belfast and Nottingham soundings would suggest temperatures in the region of 27C are required for deep convection which would be a stretch.

I am also comparing satellite with forecast vorticity and there may be a few differences which would change forcing, so that we are relying on low level convergence rather than a vorticity advection trigger. I am also concerned that mid level lapse rates drop off rapidly across most of the UK apart from the south.

I am now looking at south of a line from Bristol to the Wash as being better for convective development , where low level wind convergence takes place. Am watching a slight disturbance in the Bristol channel to see if that develops.

Probably best just watching the radar rather than trying to over think things as usual.

 

 

[Frosty hollows]

Met Office have a yellow zigzag for my area this afternoon. We shall see.Meanwhile it's 22 C and convection is building nicely. Doesn't seem to be capped either