Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Mapantz]

Ah - First bit of cloud. lol

[Ben Sainsbury]

 

4 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Definite eastwards shift going on now.

Will be pretty disappointing if we get nothing as we were suppose to be in the main action zone a few days ago and stupidly I got excited and had high hopes.

Really am clutching at straws, if we do get anything then we will have been very lucky and just had the stragglers.

It's so funny how even at this stage the GFS brings another eastward shift. Wouldn't say I'm surprised though happens every time.

[wimblettben]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Still no warnings from ESTOFEX

http://www.estofex.org/

strange.

Maybe they don't personally see the coverage or risk being high enough.

[MattTarrant]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Still no warnings from ESTOFEX

http://www.estofex.org/

strange.

They are voluntary I think, so forecasts can be a bit unpredictable in terms of there actually being one (Not the quality of forecast). 

Edited July 5, 2017 by MattTarrant

[Paul Sherman]

If Mr Holley is on here why is the Moderate bigger than the Slight ? Is that an oversight as never seen that before not even in the States 

 

[Harry]

Still silent down south. The storms that erupted in BoB (and still ongoing) are remaining fairly static. Will need to hope something erupts much closer later in the evening - I do anyway as it seems increasingly unlikely that anything will happen after 12z tomorrow down here 

[wimblettben]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Ah - First bit of cloud. lol

I wouldn't bother keeping an eye out for anything if you go by the latest forecasts.

Only southeast England northwards are really expected to get anything now, if the forecasts get it right of course.

[davehsug]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Let's hope the storm track follows the ferry route from Santander

Bit out that route! As a regularish traveller on the route (twice a year), it actually passes much closer to the Brest peninsular & passes through a channel to the East of the island of Ushant. Gawd, how boring does that sound

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Maybe they don't personally see the coverage or risk being high enough.

Well covective weather states otherwise

a severe risk?

 

[Harry]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

If Mr Holley is on here why is the Moderate bigger than the Slight ? Is that an oversight as never seen that before not even in the States 

 

Not sure what you're seeing Paul but it's not on the forecast I'm seeing 

[Pursuer of Storms]

Some signs of instability brewing earlier this evening? Most of the cloud has faded out since then...for now. 

Edited July 5, 2017 by Pursuer of Storms

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Well covective weather states otherwise

a severe risk?

 

There is no way that ESTOFEX would miss out a forecast as there is far too much potential tomorrow. I'm sure they have other things to do as they are voluntary hence why a forecast may not come out till tomorrow morning.

[tomdewey]

1 hour ago, wimblettben said:

I am hopeful something will happen by lucky chance later tonight but I already feel a sense of disappointment as there is definitely an east and north shift on coverage lately.

Like others have said though, the period isn't here yet and I should take the forecasts with a pinch of salt and just wait and see what happens.

Warminster is in a yellow weather Waring for thunderstorm 

[Paul Sherman]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

Not sure what you're seeing Paul but it's not on the forecast I'm seeing 

Ah yh my bad its a severe box in dashed lines, can see the Moderate is smaller than the slight now - Duuuuuuurgh wakey wakey - must be sleep time

[Mapantz]

Just now, wimblettben said:

I wouldn't bother keeping an eye out for anything if you go by the latest forecasts.

Only southeast England northwards are really expected to get anything now, if the forecasts get it right of course.

It was just a pure observation,. accompanied by a picture. I think you're getting yourself a little worked up over this?! 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

There is no way that ESTOFEX would miss out a forecast as there is far too much potential tomorrow. I'm sure they have other things to do as they are voluntary hence why a forecast may not come out till tomorrow morning.

They have been forecasting warnings out before the day before,before lol.

[Wet'n'Dry]

I think some people should accept they may not see a storm tomorrow. It's always been the case that a Thames Streamer or Kent clipper has happened that it was basically an import. Our weather is so dynamic that forecasting is not always an exact science, coupled with the fact that London acts as an UHI then anything is possible and may become a breeding ground for all points north

For tomorrow I wouldn't be placing the emphasis on the south east but more to the north and west of the severe risk area, it's just a gut feeling!!

[bybo1999]

2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

There is no way that ESTOFEX would miss out a forecast as there is far too much potential tomorrow. I'm sure they have other things to do as they are voluntary hence why a forecast may not come out till tomorrow morning.

I think they bring their forecast out at about 6am

[tomdewey]

Warminster is in a yellow weather Waring for thunderstorms 

[Allseasons-Si]

Off to noddy land to hopefully wake up in stormyland

night peeps.

[poseidon]

2 minutes ago, bybo1999 said:

I think they bring their forecast out at about 6am

It's been pretty random in the past and is often out after 11pm.

[wimblettben]

4 minutes ago, tomdewey said:

Warminster is in a yellow weather Waring for thunderstorm 

But that warning is from earlier and will probably be gone later as it updates.

Latest Emphasis now is more for either southeast England in the morning or Northern England later in the day tomorrow.

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, poseidon said:

It's been pretty random in the past and is often out after 11pm.

Great my wife thinks I mad waiting up to see a storm. Now I'm waiting up for a forecast of a storm . Jezz weirdo alert 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, poseidon said:

It's been pretty random in the past and is often out after 11pm.

I think what ever comes out of the estofex forecast will be on par with the rest or slightly better that is forecasted for tomorrow,i would guess a level 2 or better,we shall see.

[Wet'n'Dry]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Great my wife thinks I mad waiting up to see a storm. Now I'm waiting up for a forecast of a storm . Jezz weirdo alert 

My wife thinks I'm weird but when it does happen she enjoys a good bang!!!