Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[tomp456]

Looks like it's national flying ant day, lots of the buggers around.

didnt even get them when it was hotter a couple of weeks ago.

a good sign perhaps 

[slinky1989]

26 minutes ago, AL. said:

I'm in Swindon and haven't seen any?

Was in west Swindon, loads about. Now in the town centre and whilst none are flying, the nests look like they're starting to become lively so will probably be this evening or tomorrow.

[Dp1981]

Yes there is loads  of those pesky flying ants here too. 

[Mapantz]

Not overly impressed with the NetWx SR either. There has been a lot of chopping & changing, so we'll have to wait and see!

   

[toggerob]

GFS is starting the action early tomorrow am for us in the Northwest with 6am having a few showers breaking out before the fun and games gets underway at 3pm.

[ChezWeather]

All models currently favouring the Midlands/Lincolnshire late afternoon, should be a fun rush hour 

 

[poseidon]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not overly impressed with the NetWx SR either. There has been a lot of chopping & changing, so we'll have to wait and see!

   

looks like the Kent storm tractor beam is on full power.

[James1979]

So the first sniff in ages of a proper set of storms not going only over Kent and now within a decent forecasting time frame too and I'll be at work for it before it goes back to dry and boring for the weekend. I'm either on holiday (2 years ago the epic storm) or at work when these happen I give up- seems too much to ask for a storm in the evening/night after a hot day! For those that get to see the action- enjoy!

[Mapantz]

Just now, James1979 said:

So the first sniff in ages of a proper set of storms not going only over Kent and now within a decent forecasting time frame too and I'll be at work for it before it goes back to dry and boring for the weekend. I'm either on holiday (2 years ago the epic storm) or at work when these happen I give up- seems too much to ask for a storm in the evening/night after a hot day! For those that get to see the action- enjoy!

Your time will come on Thursday evening.

 

 

Edited July 5, 2017 by Mapantz

[weirpig]

Hirlam  also goes for an early south east to south midlands downpour  then a more organised area of precipitation spreading from South Wales across the midlands toward the north east . Interesting 

[poseidon]

nice patches of mackerel sky appearing now.

[A.J]

8 minutes ago, poseidon said:

looks like the Kent storm tractor beam is on full power.

yep, lets hope the modelling is off, as at the moment as mentioned earlier, the outlook for tomorrow is pretty poor for SW/The West Country and a good chunk of southern England......'usual suspects' will grab the goodies if modelling is right

still, here right now there are some interesting cloudscapes, some Cirrocumulus, Ac Floccus, and some Ac Cas thrown in for good measure

looking west

 

looking south

[Thunderstruck]

Just looked outside. Not as much instability as I might have expected, but still quite a bit of cirrus around

[Weather-history]

26 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

GFS is starting the action early tomorrow am for us in the Northwest with 6am having a few showers breaking out before the fun and games gets underway at 3pm.

Euro 4 12z is poor though and have to say GFS overdid it last time and Euro 4 was closer to what happened.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Euro 4 12z is poor though and have to say GFS overdid it last time and Euro 4 was closer to what happened.

Is it out yet? It won't let me see it on weather online 

[poseidon]

9 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

Just looked outside. Not as much instability as I might have expected, but still quite a bit of cirrus around

Fair bit round here, few miles north

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Is it out yet? It won't let me see it on weather online 

Yes it is out now.

 

[Chris K]

12z high res AROME precpitation. You can see the two "waves" of storms being forecast. Barely grazes my area if at all but hopefully some people will do well from this, particularly the further East you are.

Edited July 5, 2017 by Chris K

[toggerob]

2 minutes ago, Chris K said:

12z high res AROME precpitation. You can see the two "waves" of storms being forecast. Barely grazes my area if at all but hopefully some people will do well from this, particularly the further East you are.

Is there anyway of slowing down the graphic or have it hour-by-hour, it flies too fast to get a better idea on the timeline for tomorrow.

 

[wimblettben]

1 minute ago, Chris K said:

12z high res AROME precpitation. You can see the two "waves" of storms being forecast. Barely grazes my area if at all but hopefully some people will do well from this, particularly the further East you are.

Pretty much nothing for our area then, its all north!!!

Gutted if this model is true, there were suppose to be widespread storms across the south and southwest a few days ago.

Thank god I got a good distant light show in May otherwise I would be on suicide watch now.

[Allseasons-Si]

Here is Met Office's view on tomorrow

although Updated: 13:25 on Wed 5 Jul 2017 BST,i don't know when the next update is

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

checklist as follows

camera formatted and in-car charger:check

tripod:check

fuel tank full:check

drinks and snacks:check

no kids and partner yey:check

 

[Mapantz]

At what point was widespread mentioned? Even the MetO's description was "isolated"

[Chris K]

4 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

 

[Essan]

45 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

All models currently favouring the Midlands/Lincolnshire late afternoon, should be a fun rush hour 

 

Not this part of the Midlands - I am fully expecting my 2017 TS drought to continue. 

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Chris K said:

Thank you!

According to this the main action for Manchester is between 1-2pm when I will be in a meeting. Hopefully things will happen a touch later.