Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[SenlacJack]

5 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Not wanting to jump the (loaded) gun, but are we potentially seeing something similar to the July event back in 2014?

As I remember that was a Thursday night too, plus additional and notable activity on the Friday and Saturday afterwards.

If so then this time I'll remember to chase on the Friday - because the last time I stayed put til too late to see that awesome wall cloud move in across the Channel towards Kent & Sussex...

I was on the seafront in Hastings watching as that epic storm came across The Channel and barrelled into Kent and Sussex. It's the most spectacular storm I have ever seen in the UK. Here is just one of the many good videos on YouTube.

 

 

 

[Dami]

A wise man once said not to take much notice of the percentage risk.

but what the hell

upgrade from this morning. will be gone tomorrow.

[Thunderstruck]

 

Thursday evening and into the night!! 

Must. Keep. Calm

[Weather-history]

I'm waiting for Euro 4 to come within the critical time period. If that indicates something for my area then I will take more notice. Euro 4 didn't really go for much last time for this area.

[SenlacJack]

 

[Chris K]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Yep - spot on!

Although, I preferred September 13th, as that didn't miss me..

And I got this beauty on  my phone..

Feels like years ago for some reason?!

Probably the two most sickening let downs for my area - smack bang in the middle gap only for storms to re initiate to our North, and the other time veering away just before reaching us. Classic.

Edited July 4, 2017 by Chris K

[TJS1998Tom]

Is it me or does this show Thunderstorms looking more organised now?

 

Though less cape as they move East across Lincolnshire which is typical lol

[Chris K]

6 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Is it me or does this show Thunderstorms looking more organised now?

 

Though less cape as they move East across Lincolnshire which is typical lol

Yes, but with a slight more eastward emphasis starting to appear now in my opinion - moving towards what the Met office warnings show. However on the grand scale of things, a tiny adjustment will be substantial when it comes to seeing who gets the storms and who doesn't, in our part of the world.

Edited July 4, 2017 by Chris K

[TJS1998Tom]

Just now, Chris K said:

Slight more eastward emphasis starting to appear now in my opinion - moving towards what the Met office warnings show. However on the grand scale of things, a tiny adjustment will be substantial when it comes to seeing who sees the storms and who doesn't in our part of the world.

Yeah, I' be in a perfect place for them; however the little amounts of cape is worrying for much of a display

[Supacell]

It is too early to go into specifics of where rain will fall and where the highest CAPE will be. Still differences between the models and I doubt there will be agreement as to where the best storms will be (have been) until Friday. At present it is a widespread risk across the entirety of England, Wales and maybe the far south of Scotland (as per the Met Office warning issued earlier). If past history is anything to go by then I would favour more eastern parts of this area but history does not always repeat itself.

As it stands there is a 72% risk of thunderstorms even in Belper, which is hard to believe after it having been so long since the last storm here.

As has already been mentioned, Euro4 is a good model to use and at very short range (24 hours or less) it appears to be very accurate. I would also take note of the forecasts provided by the various experts across this site and others too. Good luck all

[Chris K]

Just now, TJS1998Tom said:

Yeah, I' be in a perfect place for them; however the little amounts of cape is worrying for much of a display

Ah but that is mainly showing surface CAPE in line with surface heating of the day. You also want to be looking at the MLCAPE and other convective charts - keep an eye out - I'm sure some of the more knowledgeable will post them over the coming couple of days as we enter a higher resolution on the models.

[Supacell]

6 minutes ago, Chris K said:

Ah but that is mainly showing surface CAPE in line with surface heating of the day. You also want to be looking at the MLCAPE and other convective charts - keep an eye out - I'm sure some of the more knowledgeable will post them over the coming couple of days as we enter a higher resolution on the models.

MUCAPE for Thursday afternoon and MLCAPE for midnight Thursday/Friday.

     

@TJS1998Tom this is all moving eastwards. ~1000j/kg MLCAPE at midnight is not bad at all. Still open to big adjustments yet though.

 

 

Edited July 4, 2017 by Supacell

[Mokidugway]

Can't say I'm getting excited even with a thousand joules of cape and li of -4 with cloud cover 20 c and wind off Irish Sea ,have fun as I won't be joining in 

[Weather-history]

Trying this site

https://www.windy.com/?cape,50.451,-2.197,6,m:e6Nagin

 

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Trying this site

https://www.windy.com/?cape,50.451,-2.197,6,m:e6Nagin

 

Quite nifty that wh .

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

So tonight would be a good night to clear your photo library on whatever device you use for storm pics 

Don't want to leave it til the last minute!

[TJS1998Tom]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

So tonight would be a good night to clear your photo library on whatever device you use for storm pics 

Don't want to leave it til the last minute!

I'll be charging my camera up tomorrow lol, just hope the models stick to something similar as they are for Lincolnshire

[Mokidugway]

I'll dust out my watercolours 

[The PIT]

Well on the 12oz we have a convergence zone close to us which will of course be in a different place on the day in question. Local forecast has the rest of the week dry bar some showers around 19:00 hrs Thursday but with a warning of heavy rain despite forecasting dry weather the rest of the time. It just looks daft.  Not getting excited seen better charts and got zilch.

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I'll dust out my watercolours 

Hopefully you will be painting something like this

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

10 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I'll dust out my watercolours 

I'm just digging out my charcoal-rubbing kit

[80sWeather]

Is there a site that has these strike rate maps for historic viewing? As I would like to look up around July 2013

Some terrific storms developed during one evening that year.

Edit just found the date 23rd July 2013

Edited July 4, 2017 by 80sWeather

[Supacell]

2 minutes ago, 80sWeather said:

Is there a site that has these strike rate maps for historic viewing? As I would like to look up around July 2012 

Some terrific storms developed during one evening that year.

https://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/europe/index.php?bo_page=archive&lang=en

Just select your date and hours.

[tomdewey]

Wednesday:
It will remain dry with some good spells of sunshine developing through the day. It will also feel very warm or hot, especially in the sunshine. Maximum temperature 29 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:
There will be a mixture of sunshine and thundery showers on Thursday, with warm and dry weather through Friday. It will turn fresher on Saturday after some early rain.

[tomdewey]

Warnings affecting Warminster

Yellow warning details
Rain

Between 06:00 Thu 6th and 06:00 Fri 7th

Isolated thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of England and Wales from Thursday morning, before clearing east early on Friday. While these storms may miss many places, where they do develop intense downpours are likely, bringing a low risk of sudden flooding of roads, transport routes, homes and businesses. Lightning and hail may be additional hazards.