Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Ignore the stuff in western France, if you look carefully on sat24 or on rain radar (in the most recent frames) you'll see new showers forming near Jersey (and a clear area also over the channel in that vicinity which may precede the convective cloud near IOW).

I believe this is where we will see activity begin over the next few hours and push NE to reach *some* areas of the SE.

[LightningLover]

4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Ignore the stuff in western France, if you look carefully on sat24 or on rain radar (in the most recent frames) you'll see new showers forming near Jersey (and a clear area also over the channel in that vicinity which may precede the convective cloud near IOW).

I believe this is where we will see activity begin over the next few hours and push NE to reach *some* areas of the SE.

Let's hope so! I have not had one rumble today. 

[TJS1998Tom]

2 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Let's hope so! I have not had one rumble today. 

Would be nice, doubt they'll reach me though apart from rain lol, Still dont think much will happen though 

Edited June 27, 2017 by TJS1998Tom

[LightningLover]

Stay hopeful!  (Whoops forgot  to quote your post)

Edited June 27, 2017 by LightningLover

[Cableguy]

Just a standard wet evening in store down here, nothing of any interest 

[Ciderwithrosie]

Good to see the rain though . You might get lucky , you never know .

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

8 minutes ago, Cableguy said:

Just a standard wet evening in store down here, nothing of any interest 

Was going to say the same, but some 12z runs on the high res nnm and net weathers model break something out around midnight along what I assume is a front or trough. I'm waiting to see what the euro4 thinks of it on the 12z 

 

Personally, it's eyes down to the radar get yourself on the paid version of net weathers, and see what happens. 

Aside from the thunder, it's very welcome rain. 

Edited June 27, 2017 by Surrey

[Thunderstruck]

7 minutes ago, Cableguy said:

Just a standard wet evening in store down here, nothing of any interest 

Inclined to agree I must say, though not entirely ruling out a cloud fart or two a bit later

[Hail lee]

Starting to rain quite heavy now but doesn't seem stormy like it did earlier but I'm happy to wait n see 

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 27 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 28 Jun 2017

ISSUED 15:53 UTC Tue 27 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 15:53 UTC In hindsight, activity over East Anglia today would have warranted a SLGT (borderline MDT) - but confidence was not high enough to upgrade at time of forecast issuance. Broad theme for instability here to weaken through the afternoon (earlier update) remains, with a marked decrease in lightning activity recently. The attention herein probably turns to any thunderstorms that may develop over NE France and BeNeLux this evening, which could then be advected towards the East Anglia coast overnight - though becoming increasingly elevated and likely weakening with time.

UPDATE 10:55 UTC No notable changes to the forecast, subtle forcing is promoting mid-level instability release with showery precipitation with embedded lightning drifting NNE-wards across SE England and East Anglia at present. In general terms, guidance continues to suggest instability reducing through the afternoon hours as profiles become more saturated and broad areas of showery rain develop more widely

Atlantic upper trough will dig south towards Iberia on Tuesday, strong northwesterly jet on its western flank but rather weak return southerly flow on its forward side. Broad upper flow is anticyclonic across the British Isles for much of the day, but higher WBPT airmass will begin to advect northwards from France as the flow backs. Falling heights will promote some destabilisation of this airmass, but in a rather messy fashion with pulses of showery precipitation drifting north from France into southern Britain - majority of NWP guidance suggest these pulses will be largely dynamic (vs convective). Forecast profiles also exhibit saturated mid-levels with only marginal instability at best. That said, some embedded lightning cannot be ruled out, but point probabilities remain very low.The bulk of any noteworthy instability will likely remain over the nearby Continent, with perhaps a slightly better chance of some lightning close to coasts of Kent/Sussex and East Anglia late Tuesday afternoon into the evening/night, but confidence is not particularly high - no SLGT issued for now. 

Elsewhere, behind the main frontal rain some insolation combined with cool air aloft will generate some instability across Northern Ireland, with scope for a few heavy showers or thunderstorms here. In general conditions remain too marginal to upgrade to SLGT for now. Some surface-based convection will also be possible over SW England for a time in the afternoon too.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-27

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 28 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 29 Jun 2017

ISSUED 15:40 UTC Tue 27 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper vortex becomes increasingly elongated to the west of Ireland on Wednesday, digging across Biscay towards southern France. A surface low will only slowly drift NW from the southern North Sea across Norfolk towards The Wash by evening, its associated frontal precipitation envelope covering much of northern England / north Midlands / north Wales and across to northern Republic of Ireland. Some elements of medium-level instability release may be present at the beginning of the forecast period close to the Norfolk coast.

South of the surface low, potential heating of notably moist low-levels (dewpoints 13-16C) combined with some elements of wind convergence (sea breeze for example) will provide the focus for a few scattered showers, some perhaps weakly electrified. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty about cloud clearance, which will need to occur in order for sufficient heating to take place. This is also highly dependant over the exact position and shape of the surface low, and a slower clearance north would then place the areas of low-level wind convergence in different locations.

Nonetheless, two areas have been highlighted where some deep convection may occur, although with rather skinny CAPE profiles (and not overly-impressive mid-level lapse rates) combined with high moisture content in the low- to mid-levels, it is questionable as to how much lightning activity may occur, despite some very heavy downpours being possible. For now, this and the ongoing uncertainties over cloud preclude upgrading to a SLGT over S / SE England.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-28

[Eskimo]

Has been a thoroughly wet day, has not stopped since 11am. Pretty poky showers/thunderstorms developed over the northern home counties and continued til around 4pm until a more general area of rain moved up from Channel. At one point I'd never seen rain as heavy as I did, was crazy. 

[Windblade]

Moderate - heavy rain here for the past few hours. Must say I'm enjoying it, love the cooler conditions after that awful, relentless heat we had recently. Also love the smell and sound of rain (particularly on the roof/windows at night when I'm going to sleep). However, no rumbles or strikes. Could we still see some action overnight? Feels too cool for that to me. I think any imports will lose their energy if they make it over, but lets hope I am wrong.  

Edited June 27, 2017 by Windblade

[weirpig]

20 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Has been a thoroughly wet day, has not stopped since 11am. Pretty poky showers/thunderstorms developed over the northern home counties and continued til around 4pm until a more general area of rain moved up from Channel. At one point I'd never seen rain as heavy as I did, was crazy. 

How strange and just over the border we have hardly had any rain dribs and drabs  and very gloomy 

[Marcus_surfer]

Yikes look at those storms across france!!!

[Eskimo]

Any free models showing current precip amounts?

[Hail lee]

Doesn't look like there will be anything tonight other than rain, it's all gone quiet on the storm front 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Well I've heard mixed messages - but would have thought there would be clues on the horizon by now

[LightningLover]

8 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Well I've heard mixed messages - but would have thought there would be clues on the horizon by now

I've got a strange feeling that it will be less than the dreaded "thundery rain". There's still potential but it is looking less likely now. I've decided I'm going to sleep, so good luck everyone!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

I've got a strange feeling that it will be less than the dreaded "thundery rain". There's still potential but it is looking less likely now. I've decided I'm going to sleep, so good luck everyone!

Yup me too

Gonna let the severe thunderstorms wake me up later when they can be bothered to get their acts together

 

[Sparkiee storm]

There is some brighter echo's appearing in the south on the radar now, whether that's the start of something as some members has pointed out above, only time will tell I guess as the weather has a mind of its own in the UK.

[matt111]

Just been looking at the radar and there's a few areas on there with intense rainfall showing that's not moving but gradually increasing in size. 

[Ciderwithrosie]

Heavy rain here now . Have just woken up . 

[Thunderstruck]

Been raining heavily for several hours now, but suspect that's all it will be.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

23 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Just been looking at the radar and there's a few areas on there with intense rainfall showing that's not moving but gradually increasing in size. 

Yeah - saw that and wondered whether it was a radar anomaly or not. Surely there's gonna be a lot of rainfall there