Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, ThundersnowDays said:

Do you know where the trough is at the minute?

I think its over the Isle of Man

[Derecho]

It seems that the only electrical activity at the moment is near the Isle of Man, that is the only thing that has resembled a trough IMO and it seems to be stuck there. The showers around Sheffield may fire up but the best window of opportunity for epic storms is beginning to close, unless more showers form in the west.

[Mapantz]

10 minutes ago, Nick L said:

An almost textbook supercell shape to this one north of Berwick-upon-Tweed...

The top of the scale on the rainfall key - hail core?!

[Harsh Climate]

Watch things explode once the sun fully sets!

[Tempest]

Accas and virga above me. Was getting excited but it must not mean that much as looked at radar and IOM sferics heading into cumbria. Really thought something would kick of here 

[Harsh Climate]

Dew point 20c here!

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Dew point 20c here!

Yup - 23C here with a 20C dew point. RH is 83%. Humid is definitely the right word.

Shame it's all gone to waste.

[Nick L]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The top of the scale on the rainfall key - hail core?!

Who knows? If the Met Office were willing to give more radar parameters rather than hold onto them we would be able to tell 

[Hodgheg]

Hmmmm 

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, cheese said:

Yup - 23C here with a 20C dew point. RH is 83%. Humid is definitely the right word.

Shame it's all gone to waste.

 

Yeah fantastic conditions in place. I'm still hopefull

[AndyFromDonny]

Lightning south of Doncaster.  Don't give up yet folks.

[Fiona Robertson]

7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The top of the scale on the rainfall key - hail core?!

That little lot passed over me. It seems there's explosive convection over Lanark. Both of the systems were bow shaped, no hail, but extreme rain.Only the first one gave us thunder.

[Tempest]

First 2 Pics taken showing south, third one looking north. Hard to tell how far away these clouds are. Accas and virga have disappeared (i think). Should i keep hoping against all the odds even though forecast says no storms for me ? 

[toggerob]

CAPE is still high all the way up to 3am across the north, northwest, midlands, and the east. If nothing materializes by then i'll be calling it a night.

[ChezWeather]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Who knows? If the Met Office were willing to give more radar parameters rather than hold onto them we would be able to tell 

Id love to know what sort of stuff the Met Office can see! Is it similar to the US doppler network? 

[TJS1998Tom]

If only tonight we had what Scotlands having right now lol

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

They think its all over it is now, what a let down that was lol

[Nick L]

Just now, ChezWeather said:

Id love to know what sort of stuff the Met Office can see! Is it similar to the US doppler network? 

Yes. We have a doppler network! I've seen snippets of the data on occasion and spoken to people who work there. They have all the data (such as velocities, would confirm if it's a supercell) but for reasons only they know won't make it publicly available, not even to purchase.

[toggerob]

The main limitation of the situation is the questionable extent and timing of initiation. Models suggest isolated initiation at best in the late afternoon and evening hours, while e.g. ECMWF suggests that widespread elevated convection occurs in the early morning to noon period over N England. Initiation of surface based storms will likely depend on the development of local convergence zones during the afternoon hours. Large scale upward motion from the approaching short-wave trough will likely be too late to considerably reduce the CIN. The presence of abundant cirrus ahead of the approaching trough may hinder surface heating and mixing of the boundary layer.

 

Hoping ECMWF is right.

[SarahWxm]

1 minute ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

They think its all over it is now, what a let down that was lol

Is it or is it being a big old tease! Come on!!!! Lol

[TJS1998Tom]

2 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

They think its all over it is now, what a let down that was lol

If only we had this lol, fingers crossed for July

[Greeny]

1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:

If only tonight we had what Scotlands having right now lol

I assume being closer to the low and lower surface pressure for them had something to do with it being more free to intensify.

[cheese]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Yes. We have a doppler network! I've seen snippets of the data on occasion and spoken to people who work there. They have all the data (such as velocities, would confirm if it's a supercell) but for reasons only they know won't make it publicly available, not even to purchase.

Met Office really fall short compared to their US counterparts when it comes to what data the public are allowed to access. I am always in awe of the sheer depth of statistics available on the NOAA website for individual stations (and they have lots of stations in every city, unlike the UK where countless stations have been closed over the past 20 years, with Leeds not having an official Met station at all anymore).

Edited June 21, 2017 by cheese

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

2 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

If only we had this lol, fingers crossed for July

Yes would be lovely up at half 5 so I think that's a night for me lol hope to get woken up at 2am with fireworks lol

[Derecho]

If this does end up being a bust (which is looking increasingly likely), it will be the biggest letdown since the June 2011 plume which produced nothing of note. Despite some occassional flurries of activity nothing organised has come together. It seems that the cap release is the cold front over Scotland which explains why Edinburgh has done well.

It isn't over yet this evening but this is another harsh lesson in thunderstorms if nothing happens. Heat and CAPE doesn't equate to big storms. I'm clutching at straws now hoping my forecast for storms I made yesterday doesn't fail, but I'm becoming increasingly resigned.

To be honest the CAPE in SW England and Wales produced very little yesterday so that may have been a warning sign.

Also hats off to the BBC forecast, it's been pretty good! Although even this had perhaps overestimated storm potential.

Sorry if I'm being negative but that is how I see things at this point.

Edited June 21, 2017 by Quicksilver1989