Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Luke Best]

Horizon now filled with cirro-cumulus with virga.  Clearly significant high-level wind as they are far from static.

And another - just loving these skies:

 

Edited June 21, 2017 by Luke Best

[P-M]

Just now, Boro Snow said:

Please do not tell me this ppn heading towards the north east is the main event

 

Probably :-)))

[LightningLover]

[inghams85]

The problem has been the pesky convergence near Wales scuppering any proper heat building ahead of this trough. The clouds build they don't break enough of the cap and we've been left with crud. It's happened twice today already 

[Derbyshire_snow]

That humidity in Buxton is horrific 93% 

[toggerob]

This is the Meto Surface Pressure at midnight, the trough in the North Sea is currently what's moving east. The one behind it is where the storms will be breaking out along the boundary.

Edited June 21, 2017 by SNOW_JOKE

[Greeny]

Well the trough according to GFS at present is as illustrated and the main area will continue at present forecasts along the arrow and pass over EA at around 13.00 to 18.00 tomorrow.

(corrected as the cold front)

Edited June 21, 2017 by Greeny

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

There's actually a trough expected to form overhead into this evening/early morning ahead of the cold-front which will be the trigger for the storms. The trough will absorb the CAPE enough-so that it temporarily becomes a cold-front into tomorrow. The Welsh Coast is where the trough will begin initiation somewhere around 9pm.

This one,cos it has developed a lot on the last few returns.

[P-M]

1 minute ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

This is the Meto Surface Pressure at 1am, the trough in the North Sea is currently what's moving east. The one behind it is where the storms will be breaking out along the boundary.

Ah so that's how it works?  Fair enough let's see what happens later then.  I get it now hence the later tonight / overnight forecasts.  Cheers snow.

[LightningLover]

Good Luck for everyone up north tonight! things are beginning to kick off. 

Edited June 21, 2017 by LightningLover

[toggerob]

1 minute ago, Greeny said:

Well the trough according to GFS at present is as illustrated and the main area will continue at present forecasts along the arrow and pass over EA at around 13.00 to 18.00 tomorrow.

That's the cold-front, the trough at that time is the -10li moving out into the North Sea.

Edited June 21, 2017 by SNOW_JOKE

[P-M]

1 minute ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

That's the cold-front, the trough at that time is the -11li moving out into the North Sea.

 

It says 8pm tonight on the run though?

[tomdewey]

[Greeny]

2 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

That's the cold-front, the trough at that time is the -10li moving out into the North Sea.

Ok thx for the input, relative vorticity can indicate a trough also?

[toggerob]

It's a complicated setup as I think a lot of people are assuming the cold-front is initiating the storms, in simpler terms what's causing the forecast storms for tonight is a developing trough ahead of the cold-front. Which is what i'm keeping a eye on via wind and satellite data.

[SarahWxm]

I'm getting fed up and disheartened now. Sky just looks crappy and gloomy in East Yorks. 

[pip22]

Cell is developing over Preston.

[P-M]

Just now, SNOW_JOKE said:

It's a complicated setup as I think a lot of people are assuming the cold-front is initiating the storms, in simpler terms what's causing the forecast storms for tonight is a developing trough ahead of the cold-front. Which is what i'm keeping a eye on via wind and satellite data.

 

Thanks -  I eagerly await your updates!  Will try and suss it myself too like but not holding much hope.

[TJS1998Tom]

Nothing interesting has happened yet, starting to feel that nothing much will happen for a lot of us now apart from the odd bit in the West

[Hodgheg]

It's just not quite managing it. 

[Harsh Climate]

19c dew point here, 21c dew point liverpool, things really are about to go bang!

[Dangerous55019]

I'm currently bathed in sweat it's that humid here!!

Well, after that unexpected storm passed through, the sky around here is now looking like this!! 

Personally, I'd say this isn't over by a long shot. 

Don't loose hope yet folks. 

[pip22]

Bottom picture is pointing towards the Preston cell.

Edited June 21, 2017 by pip22

[Greeny]

5 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

That's the cold-front, the trough at that time is the -10li moving out into the North Sea.

I must admit I was trying to work that one out   something had to have been present to steepen lapse rates cooling the mid levels.

[Stuart]

cold front moving slower then forecast so a lot of time still