Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Had Worse]

Heavy rain here on the top of the hill at Monks Road Glossop. No lightning yet so can we unscrew the cap a bit more to make things fizz

[The PIT]

Our local forecast is wrong already. Says dry........

[toggerob]

The storms so-far formed thanks to a convergence over the N.Wales coast, they barely tapped into the CAPE that's available up there, but what they have done is shown the cap is weakening and now CB's can break through even if just intermittently to begin with. Just a taste of what's to come and even better is that the moisture dumped is already getting back into the atmosphere as sunset is still 2 hours away.

[NUT]

More cracking off (another sepearate band) to the south of me but missing my bit again

Edited June 21, 2017 by NUT

[TJS1998Tom]

Clouding up again but not sure if much will happen, Skellingthorpe, Lincs. 

[inghams85]

8 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I respect your opinion but I think you are calling it far too early. It's not like we have big storms over us orjust to the east, about to batter east yorkshire is it?? Pretty much peanuts has developed so far and I remain quietly confident.

I respect your opinions as well I just don't see it. The only saving grace is I believe anything we get will move South to North from the West Midlands and nothing has happened there yet

[inghams85]

Has anyone actually experienced a "severe" thunderstorm yet? Lol it's been big standard stuff tbh!

[tomdewey]

Edited June 21, 2017 by tomdewey
Nice pic of clouds over in Warminster

[Summerstorm]

Just now, inghams85 said:

Has anyone actually experienced a "severe" thunderstorm yet? Lol it's been big standard stuff tbh!

I know right seems like they overhyped it at the moment unless something bubbles up over the next couple of hours. 

[The PIT]

A had bright light the skies earlier. Oh that was the sun.

[80sWeather]

1 hour ago, Bangers & Flash said:

Long-time lurker here (7+ years) - thought I would drop by and say hi!

Currently glued to the forum (as always) and got everything crossed for the next few hours.

Chris





 

Welcome and love the username!

[Bangers & Flash]

Storm died a death before reaching here towards Wilmslow. Ended up with a few minutes of moderate rain. 

Still looking and feeling very convective out there.

Edited June 21, 2017 by Bangers & Flash
Duplicate photo removal

[WillinGlossop]

24c large warm rain drops....very very humid.... some lovely convection going on.... sunshine popping out..... some very large towers....

[IanR]

i was expecting a bit of a cracker for the north west, maybe not a direct hit , but at least many distant rumbles if nothing else , it all seemed right , but its a damp squib so far, maybe distant lighting after dark ?  ,  that could be too much as ask as well 

[Martin Auld]

Yes come to papa

 

[P-M]

Anyone have any idea where the trough / cold front even is?  I was convinced I'd be able to keep track of it but seems I can't even work that out 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Sky seems to be stabilising here so can't see anything kicking off now. Some towering moving off to the east but for here it looks to be yet another bust. 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, P-M said:

Anyone have any idea where the trough / cold front even is?  I was convinced I'd be able to keep track of it but seems I can't even work that out 

 

Coming into NW Ireland P-M

http://beta.meteoradar.co.uk/satellite-rainradar#

 

[staplehurst]

6 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

I know right seems like they overhyped it at the moment unless something bubbles up over the next couple of hours. 

Overhyped would imply the potential was never there in the first place, and 'played up' for no reason - the potential is definitely there for severe (large hail, strong downburst winds, frequent lightning, flash flooding etc) given the atmospheric conditions sampled on the 12z radiosondes. It's all about managing expectations and acknowledging the uncertainty over whether the capping inversions can be weakened and overcome. 

The best potential has always been signalled for the evening hours, as the greatest instability spreads SW - NE with increasing upper forcing - but it's a question of how much will they phase together to be able to create a severe thunderstorm. Very finely balanced, and by no means guaranteed - am yet to see any forecast stating such severe thunderstorms would definitely occur, just that the potential is there for one or two...

[P-M]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Coming into NW Ireland P-M

http://beta.meteoradar.co.uk/satellite-rainradar#

 

 

Thank you - it seems then that it's hours away from us so defo not expecting anything now! 

[Mark Walker]

Steady rain for 15 mins now as the one that was working it's way from NWales comes down onto the Aire/Calder plains,it's coming with quite a cool breeze,and just doesn't seem to be doing much (at the moment). Will post if I hear/see anything otherwise locally.

[inghams85]

The cold front hasn't come through quick enough. It's game over im afraid, fun being on here though!

[toggerob]

There's actually a trough expected to form overhead into this evening/early morning ahead of the cold-front which will be the trigger for the storms. The trough will absorb the CAPE enough-so that it temporarily becomes a cold-front into tomorrow. The Welsh Coast is where the trough will begin initiation somewhere around 9pm.

[Boro Snow]

Please do not tell me this ppn heading towards the north east is the main event

[P-M]

Just now, SNOW_JOKE said:

There's actually a trough expected to form overhead into this evening/early morning ahead of the cold-front which will be the trigger for the storms. The trough will absorb the CAPE enough-so that it temporarily becomes a cold-front into tomorrow. The Welsh Coast is where the trough will begin initiation somewhere around 9pm.

 

Thanks for the info - what direction is it forecast to move in then, is it straight east?