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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I'm guessing this is going to be a slow build? There's precipitation near by on the radar but nothing thundery yet (Skellingthorpe, Lincolnshire)

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
8 minutes ago, P-M said:

You couldn't make it up - crud all day and yet now blaring sun!

Temp responding aswell gone up 3 degrees in the past hour 

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Just now, Boro Snow said:

Temp responding aswell gone up 3 degrees in the past hour 

I know - I just feel it's too late in the day but never say never mate.

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

Still very hot and humid here... But the sun is trying to come out.

This is the current state of the sky here.

... By the way, good luck to everyone on here with this. :bomb::good:

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IMG_2634.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
2 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I'm guessing this is going to be a slow build? There's precipitation near by on the radar but nothing thundery yet (Skellingthorpe, Lincolnshire)

S1600003.JPG

hi, cloud really filling in now, its so hot and muggy though

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex

If I were up North I wouldn't rule anything out just yet. If/when something forms over the Irish Sea, that's going to have monumental CAPE to tap into over the UK. Good things come to those who wait :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)
  • Weather Preferences: Fair Weather, Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)

Looking West - signs of mid level instability? (Pic heavily edited)

IMG_1241.JPG

Edited by AIRMET
Wrong direction
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Destabilisation and cap weakening won't occur until later on this evening. Keep an eye on the clear slot coming in from Ireland. Nocturnal cooling will also help I should suspect. 

Tomorrow morning into lunchtime looking better for actually seeing storms come to fruition further south. Yes, there's less instability, but the capping will be much weaker. 

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Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
1 minute ago, Jcweather said:

If I were up North I wouldn't rule anything out just yet. If/when something forms over the Irish Sea, that's going to have monumental CAPE to tap into over the UK. Good things come to those who wait :) 

Think you've got it spot on. I wouldn't be writing anything off this early. Still loads of time yet. Sun is shining, has warmed up significantly. Game on I think :)

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

four and a half percent chance of storms IMBY tomorrow:yahoo:

a wopping 80% here !

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Clouds developing at back of cirrus just north of London. Rather rapidly, too. Those couple of strikes just north west of Paris developed from zero to hero in 25 minutes.

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
6 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Destabilisation and cap weakening won't occur until later on this evening. Keep an eye on the clear slot coming in from Ireland. Nocturnal cooling will also help I should suspect. 

Tomorrow morning into lunchtime looking better for actually seeing storms come to fruition further south. Yes, there's less instability, but the capping will be much weaker. 

I know I sound pessimistic - the only reason I am doubtful is because a lot hinged on surface temps today on the north to initiate.  Or have I got that completely wrong?

 

Lovely evening now though and even if nothing happens you gotta love this website for the anticipation and fun at the excitement people's posts generate.

Edited by P-M
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Just now, Delka said:

a wopping 80% here !

:shok: could you imagine if i get some and you don't lol

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
Just now, lassie23 said:

:shok: could you imagine if i get some and you don't lol

:nonono:i'd be majorly disappointed seeing i've had a good chance nearly every day this week and only got a torrential downpour and a few distant rumbles

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
4 minutes ago, Delka said:

anaprop west of Gravesend?

I would say so

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Another chance tomorrow apparently will have too see if we in the wrong position for it or not. Quick look at GFS and that's a no for us tomorrow. So the blank period goes on.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
14 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

hi, cloud really filling in now, its so hot and muggy though

I hope it waits out till it gets dark as that's the best time for them. Doubt it though

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
7 minutes ago, P-M said:

I know I sound pessimistic - the only reason I am doubtful is because a lit hinged on surface temps today on the north to initiate.  Or have I got that completely wrong?

 

Lovely evening now though and even if nothing happens you gotta love this website for the anticipation and fun at the excitement posts generate.

Yes. This site has essentially made my life! Such a useful storm chasing tool aswell and to give reports and feedback to everyone. 

As for surface temperature where you are, I wouldn't worry too much, as there's tonnes of rich, moisture laden air flooding up from down here. On the 3rd July 2015 here, we only recorded 22-23c with a cool east wind. Never would I have thought at that time would I see one of the most epic storms in recent history occur later on that night. I even remember some folk writing it off almost and saying it was so cool, the afternoon before.

Paul Sherman however highlighted the WAA flooding in from the south heading north that evening. He was spot on. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
5 minutes ago, P-M said:

I know I sound pessimistic - the only reason I am doubtful is because a lot hinged on surface temps today on the north to initiate.  Or have I got that completely wrong?

 

Lovely evening now though and even if nothing happens you gotta love this website for the anticipation and fun at the excitement people's posts generate.

They were storms in the north this morning just too far north for us which is typical.

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
6 minutes ago, P-M said:

I know I sound pessimistic - the only reason I am doubtful is because a lot hinged on surface temps today on the north to initiate.  

That's only part of the story: the main initiation is this trough breaking through from the West clearing the cap. Once that's done, all the bits and pieces should be in place. A good sign is the speed this thing is travelling through; most models put it a lot slower, and thus the risk of nothing happening (too late in the day) was a real possibility. It think it's looking very positive at the moment.

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