Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[P-M]

1 minute ago, NL said:

The surface winds are now veering from a SE direction to a S/SSW so this low cloud dragged in from the North sea should thin and disperse. Still there is a sky full of cirrus (thin in parts which) which is pegging back temperatures so the potential severe storms may not materialise here in the North East. Still early and storms aren't progged for this area until 6pm onwards anyway.

Cheers NL - fingers crossed!

[Delka]

4 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I have been looking through the hi-res models for today across Europe and the one that seems to have the precipitation correct so far is the DWD ICON model. If this model is correct then the best chance looks to be the Pennines and east into Yorkshire this evening. Just one model though, and they are all showing different.

anything showing for North Norfolk coast? Distant rumbles?

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Sun out here now and the humidity has rocketed. Sky is very milky and misty so here's hoping for something big! 

[Guest]

Hello

Thanks for Nick Finnis for an excellent storm forecast. One of the biggest issues when a CAP needs to be broken for storms to develop is where this will happen.

Needless to say the added lifting produced in hilly or mountainous areas has some effect so we can see initiation in Mid Wales now with some recorded lightning

In Manchester area, I am hopeful of some precip today although whether we get storms is hit and miss. Any storms will likely be slow movers so traffic permitting chasing could be on the cards.

Happy hunting to all 

 

[Hirudine]

Hot and hazy in Brum city centre with a lot of fuzzy cirrus above the haze. So glad Parcelforce delivered our fan this morning, though there is a decent breeze. 

Definitely way too hot to have worked in my workshop today- yesterday it was hotter in there than it was outside!

[Had Worse]

Just now, nwextremeweather said:

Hello

Thanks for Nick Finnis for an excellent storm forecast. One of the biggest issues when a CAP needs to be broken for storms to develop is where this will happen.

Needless to say the added lifting produced in hilly or mountainous areas has some effect so we can see initiation in Mid Wales now with some recorded lightning

In Manchester area, I am hopeful of some precip today although whether we get storms is hit and miss. Any storms will likely be slow movers so traffic permitting chasing could be on the cards.

Happy hunting to all 

 

That's my plan aswell. These things can explode in under 20 minutes, unfortunately not always near enough to catch.

[Mapantz]

I quite dig the DWD ICON! The German model has done well in some previous setups.

  

[Tempest]

Can someone tell me what number shows high humidity or how you know it is high. I havent a clue 

[Guest]

Currently looking at building cloud cover. Very humid and approx 30 deg. The pigeons on the roof have a much better view though

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, Squall said:

Can someone tell me what number shows high humidity or how you know it is high. I havent a clue 

Stick with the dew point. Relative humidity fluctuates with temperature (as it cools this evening the RH will rocket). Current dew points of 18-20c are very high for the UK! Could push 21-22c in some spots.

[Allseasons-Si]

Afternoon folks

i have loads of accas overhead now,and just looking at Wales there are explosive development's

[Sparkiee storm]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Stick with the dew point. Relative humidity fluctuates with temperature (as it cools this evening the RH will rocket). Current dew points of 18-20c are very high for the UK! Could push 21-22c in some spots.

Sorry, not much knowledge of dew points, but does/can this help with thunderstorm development?

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Sorry, not much knowledge of dew points, but does/can this help with thunderstorm development?

Yes, a higher dew point indicates a greater amount of moisture in the air (i.e. storm food).

[Sparkiee storm]

Just now, Nick L said:

Yes, a higher dew point indicates a greater amount of moisture in the air (i.e. storm food).

Okay, thank you  

[toggerob]

That shower in Derby erupted out of nowhere. Game on

[Martin Auld]

17 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I quite dig the DWD ICON! The German model has done well in some previous setups.

  

That model better be on point today because everything else is saying I'm getting nothing.

[Had Worse]

Tiny Orange dot to the west of me on radar.  Just in time for the school run if its real precip

[gregior]

some proper looking storms appearing on the North Wales coast now

 

[Summerstorm]

Hi Guys this is my first post on here Also just started raining here in Wrexham and the humidity has gone through the roof and it feels tropical here. No thunder/lightning here yet.

Edited June 21, 2017 by Summerstorm

[Tempest]

Thanks Nick 

[toggerob]

Slightly concerned about the convective leftover mess across Wales at the moment, good if it's introducing instability and moisture into the atmosphere but not too great for surface-heating.

[A.J]

33.4C here with 21.4C dewpoints.....feels like a sauna.......elevated storms overnight and into tomorrow morning possible for my neck of the woods.........pretty much cloudless skies with a hint of cirrus way off to the north......good luck to those ooop north

Edited June 21, 2017 by ajpoolshark

[Dangerous55019]

The sky has gone very dark to my south west... The humidity is horrendous. 

 

[Harsh Climate]

23 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Yes, a higher dew point indicates a greater amount of moisture in the air (i.e. storm food).

It's 23c and 18c dewpoint here so still looking very good for yorkshire.  What do you think the chances of a supercell or two are today? 

[Weatherman662]

Storm incoming from our west